Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group highlighted significant opportunities in the U.S. wealth management sector [1]

他同时称，对俄罗斯总统普京"很不满意"。特朗普当天在白宫举行的内阁会议上说，普京说过很 多，"态度一直非常好"，但结果"毫无意义"。 就在特朗普对俄罗斯怨念连连之际， 美国媒体8日爆料称，根据该媒体获得的一段音频，特朗普去年 在一次私人捐赠者聚会上透露，他曾威胁俄总统普京说，如果俄军进攻乌克兰，美国将"轰炸莫斯 科"作为报复，试图以此威慑俄罗斯。 "我对普京说，如果你进攻乌克兰，我就轰炸莫斯科，我告诉你，我别无选择。普京说他不信，但我 觉得他有10%信了我。"特朗普说。 特朗普还说如果是他而非拜登担任总统，俄乌冲突和本轮巴以冲 突就不会爆发。 据称 ，上述言论是在2024年特朗普为竞选连任时，在纽约和佛罗里达举行的筹款活动中发表的，并 被录音保存了下来。 2025.07. 09 本文字数：1019，阅读时长大约2分钟 来源 | 长安街知事、 中国经营报 综合 新华社、 新京报、 观察者网、环球时报、 参考消息 等 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间8日表示，已批准向乌克兰运送更多防御性武器，并考虑进 一步对俄罗斯实施制裁。 彼时，特朗普正在 竞选 第二个总统任期，在喀山参加金砖峰会的 普京则在 记者会上回应 ...

紧盯晚间美国贸易信号，美元和黄金的背水一战，鹿死谁手？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点击 进入直播间 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a rebound in the US dollar, with expectations for the euro to rise to 1.20 in the long term, despite potential short-term corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index outperformed European stock markets in June, reversing a trend of underperformance over the previous five months [1] - The yield premium on long-term US Treasury bonds has decreased from high levels, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Impact - The current market order is perceived as more stable compared to the period following the large-scale tariff policies introduced in April [1] - Investors seem to believe that the impacts of US policies may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 3: Currency Forecast - The euro is expected to rise to 1.20 against the dollar over the next 12 months, although there is room for further short-term corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has announced a 25% tariff on all goods imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, increasing pressure on these key allies in trade and military spending [1][2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 25% tariff on Japan is higher than the previously suspended "reciprocal tariff," indicating a significant escalation in pressure [2]. - Both Japan and South Korea have substantial trade surpluses with the U.S., making them primary targets for the Trump administration's tariff strategy aimed at correcting perceived trade imbalances [3]. - The imposition of tariffs is seen as a heavy burden for both countries, particularly given their reliance on exports to the U.S. for key industries like automotive [3]. Group 2: Military Spending Pressure - The Trump administration has repeatedly demanded that Japan and South Korea increase their military budgets and share more of the costs for U.S. troops stationed in their countries [3]. - Recent statements from Trump suggest that South Korea's payments for U.S. troop presence are "very low," further intensifying the pressure on both nations [3]. Group 3: Responses from Japan and South Korea - Japan's Prime Minister expressed regret over the tariff announcement and indicated a desire to negotiate terms that protect national interests while achieving a win-win outcome [4]. - South Korea is preparing for negotiations with a focus on national interests, emphasizing the need for thorough preparation in trade discussions with the U.S. [4]. - Both countries are employing a dual strategy of soft and hard measures in response to the tariffs, seeking concessions from the U.S. while protecting their core interests in critical sectors like automotive and agriculture [4]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Trust Issues - Trust in the U.S. has significantly declined in Japan, with a recent poll showing only 22% of the population expressing trust, a drop of 12 percentage points from the previous year [6]. - In South Korea, the perception of the U.S. relationship has worsened, with a doubling of respondents rating the relationship as "bad" over the past year [7]. - The ongoing pressure from the Trump administration has led to a shift in public sentiment, with calls for both countries to assert more independence in their foreign policies [6][7].

智通财经7月9日电，美国MBA抵押贷款申请指数上周上升9.4%。 ...

本周观点 行 行业周报 业 美越达成贸易协议，关注美国关税政策变化下出口链走向 商品征收 20%关税，对通过越南转运输美的其他国家商品征收 40%关税，而 越南将对美国"完全开放市场"，美国企业能以零关税向越南销售产品。我 们认为，此次美国对越商品征收20%关税低于此前提议的46%关税计划，40% 转运关税模式大概率将成为近期美国关税谈判模板，建议关注美国关税政策 变化下出口链走向。 | 研 | | | | | | | | | | ——机械设备行业周报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 宁前羽 | | SAC | | NO： | | S1150522070001 | | 年 月 2025 07 09 | | 日 | | | 机械设备 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | |  行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁前羽 | ...

机构：全球资本对美信心下降 经济增长料承压 金十数据7月9日讯，瑞士再保险公司的经济学家表示，特朗普任期内贸易政策的波动性已经削弱了全球 资本对美国政府的信心，降低了美国资产作为全球资本避风港的地位。他们指出，由于全球供应链变得 效率低下以及美国国内产业更加保护主义，关税将对美国造成滞胀冲击。首席经济学家杰罗姆·哈格利 表示，美国消费者将因关税政策受到最严重的打击，并因为物价上涨而削减开支。这反过来又会对依赖 家庭消费的美国经济增长构成压力。预计今年美国GDP增长率为1.5%，低于2024年的2.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent confusion regarding U.S. military aid to Ukraine stems from Defense Secretary Mark Esper's unilateral decision to pause certain arms shipments without notifying the White House, leading to a chaotic internal decision-making process within the Trump administration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Decision-Making Process - Secretary Esper authorized the pause in arms shipments following President Trump's request for an evaluation of military stockpiles, but did not receive explicit instructions to halt aid to Ukraine [3][4]. - The decision to pause aid was reportedly influenced by Deputy Defense Secretary Elbridge Colby, who has been skeptical of large-scale military assistance to Ukraine [3][4]. - The Pentagon's announcement of the pause caught not only the White House off guard but also other key officials, including the U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine and the Secretary of State [3][4]. Group 2: Military Aid Details - The halted shipment included dozens of Patriot missiles, thousands of 155mm artillery shells, and over 100 Hellfire missiles, which were already prepared for transport to Ukraine [4][5]. - Colby stated that the Pentagon was reviewing and adjusting the military aid to align with the goal of ending the conflict in Ukraine while maintaining U.S. military readiness [4][5]. Group 3: Internal Conflicts and Reactions - The decision to pause aid has been criticized internally, with military officials indicating that while some high-precision munitions are at low levels, they are not below the minimum required for military readiness [5][6]. - This incident marks the third time Esper has unilaterally halted aid to Ukraine without prior coordination with the White House or Congress, raising concerns about his decision-making approach [5][6]. - Colby has faced backlash for his unilateral actions, which have reportedly caused friction with both U.S. allies and within the government [6].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 10 | 9510 | -88 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2586 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 7 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) -712 期货市场 | 60 281867 | 6 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) -12874 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 273 567429 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | | 15732 | -2370 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -11828 | 2352 | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | | 3021 | 301 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 15663 | -136 | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | | 704.6 | ...