Group 1 - International spot gold prices experienced a decline after reaching a two-month high, influenced by profit-taking and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - On June 16, gold opened at $3433.00, peaked at $3452.50, and closed at $3383.62, marking a daily drop of $49.73 or 1.45% [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the release of U.S. retail data, which are critical for assessing the economic situation [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold prices broke through a recent trading range but lack confirmation through a pullback, with key support at the 5-week moving average of $3365 [2] - The daily K-line indicates that gold faced resistance at $3455, suggesting a shift to a corrective phase, with immediate support at the 10-day moving average [2] - The expected trading range for gold is between $3400 and $3365, with upward movement requiring a breakthrough above $3415-$3420 to avoid further declines [2]

近期，花旗银行发布了一份引发市场广泛关注的报告，预测黄金价格在未来几个季度将回落至每盎司 3000 美元以下，甚至到 2026 年下半年，金价可能进 一步回落至每盎司 2500 至 2700 美元的区间。这一预测为黄金市场未来走势增添了新的不确定性，也值得投资者深入分析和探讨。 投资需求减弱，黄金市场承压 黄金作为一种重要的避险资产，在全球经济不稳定、地缘政治紧张等情况下，通常会受到投资者的青睐，推动其价格上涨。然而，花旗指出，到 2025 年 末和 2026 年，黄金的投资需求可能会减少，这主要是由于特朗普人气上升和美国经济增长的 "看跌期权" 开始显现，尤其随着美国中期选举临近，市场对 黄金的投资热度可能会逐渐消退。 市场避险情绪回落，黄金短期面临调整压力 从市场情绪角度来看，近期地缘政治紧张局势有所缓解，伊朗表示希望与美国和以色列进行对话，这一消息的传出使得市场的避险情绪有所回落，投资者 对黄金的短期需求也随之减少，导致黄金价格出现了一定程度的波动和下滑。然而，地缘政治局势的不确定性依然存在，随时可能再度紧张，这将为黄金 市场提供一定的底部支撑。 投资者策略：审慎应对，把握长期价值 面对花旗的预测和黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by an individual regarding whether to sell gold holdings for immediate profit or to hold on for potential future gains, highlighting the volatility of gold prices and the influence of global economic factors on investment decisions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Over the past decade, gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase from around 260 yuan per gram to peaks of over 830 yuan, followed by a decline to approximately 732 yuan [3][5]. - The volatility of gold prices has been around 20% over the past five years, indicating substantial risk and potential profit in gold investments [5]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Global economic conditions, including U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, inflation expectations, and trade dynamics, heavily impact gold prices [5]. - Increased inflation pressures have made gold an attractive safe-haven asset for investors, contributing to recent price increases [5]. Group 3: Investment Dilemma - The individual is torn between selling gold for a guaranteed profit of over 150,000 yuan or holding out for potential further appreciation, reflecting a common struggle among investors [6][11]. - The advice from family members represents contrasting investment philosophies: one advocating for immediate cashing out and the other suggesting patience for long-term gains [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term vs Short-term Investment - The article raises questions about whether gold should be viewed as a long-term asset or a short-term trading tool, emphasizing the need for investors to understand their risk tolerance [8]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that future gold market performance will be influenced by ongoing political and economic uncertainties, complicating investment decisions [8].

周一黄金市场冲高回落，因市场多头获利了结影响以及市场在等待美联储政策声明，现货黄金市场昨日 表现为冲高回落并维持在区间内震荡，昨日最高至3451.19美元/盎司，最低至3382.76美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3385.14美元/盎司，本交易日亚洲早盘开盘后市场小幅上扬，目前交投于3393.00美元/盎司附 近。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币 政策的动向和美债收益率情况。 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.180-36.550，操作上可在这个 区间内高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.180美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700- 35.300美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.550美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美 元/盎司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应 根据自己的风险承受能力、投资目标和市场情况做出决策。 亚洲早盘策略： ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trends in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on upcoming developments [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 785.78 CNY per gram, down 1.37% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3418.9 USD per ounce, up 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: The market anticipates the Fed to maintain interest rates, but investors are keen on future policy signals, particularly regarding rate cuts. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while an emphasis on inflation risks could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran have previously driven gold prices up. However, Iran's willingness to restart nuclear negotiations has eased market fears, limiting further gold price increases. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks continue to provide support for gold as tensions may escalate again [2][3]. - Market Profit-Taking: On June 16, gold prices fell over 1% as traders locked in profits after reaching an 8-week high. Without new safe-haven demand, gold prices may continue to consolidate [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price movements are highly dependent on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. A clear signal of rate cuts could lead to a rise in gold prices, while the opposite could exert downward pressure [3]. - Although current geopolitical tensions have eased, they remain a potential source of support for gold prices. The market is also facing profit-taking pressures, and without new positive stimuli, gold prices may remain in a consolidation phase [3]. - In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support an upward shift in gold price levels [3].

国内商品期货多数收涨，能化板块大面积飘红 ——中信期货晨报20250617 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

中长期来看，全球央行购金潮与美元信用体系隐忧构成黄金的战略支撑。中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，5月末储备达7383万盎司（约2296吨）；欧洲央行黄金占外汇储备比例升至20%，超越欧元成为第 二大储备资产。高盛预测，若美国债务展期压力加剧，2026年金价或突破4000美元/盎司。 分析师指出，若中东冲突外溢或美国经济数据疲软，金价可能突破3500美元关口；反之，若地缘局势缓 和或美联储释放鹰派信号，短期或回踩3400美元支撑位。市场需重点关注6月17日美国密歇根消费者信 心指数及6月下旬非农数据，这些因素或成为金价下一步走势的关键风向标。 美联储货币政策转向预期亦为黄金提供支撑。6月FOMC会议虽维持利率不变，但删除"通胀向2%目标 取得进展"的表述，鲍威尔强调"依赖数据调整政策"。市场押注美联储年内将降息两次（6月、12月）， 美元指数跌至97.8的4月以来低点，削弱了黄金的持有成本。此外，美国5月PPI同比增速降至2.6%，核 心PPI同比3.0%，创2024年8月以来新低，企业端通胀压力缓解强化了宽松预期。 技术面显示黄金短期动能强劲。伦敦金周线级别形成"上升旗形"形态，理论目标指向3500-3550美 ...

【导读】美股上涨，中概股脑再生科技盘中多次熔断 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐姐们啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股大涨 6月16日晚间，美股开盘大涨，道指涨近400点，纳指涨超1.4%，标普500指数涨超1%。 股市出现反弹，因为市场对以色列与伊朗的冲突可能仍将受到控制表示乐观。此前因冲突升级而飙升的油价也有所回落。 油价与金价双双下跌。WTI原油期货下跌逾3%，至每桶70.47美元，此前在隔夜交易中一度突破77美元。 上周五以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，交易员密切关注中东局势。伊朗随后发射导弹报复，使地区局势更加紧张。 不过，有报道称，伊朗通过中间方传达愿意在美国不参与以色列袭击的前提下重启谈判的意愿，这令市场在周一出现一丝乐观情绪。报道还称， 伊朗向以色列传达信息，希望双方将攻击控制在有限范围内。 另外还有报道援引消息人士称，伊朗已请求沙特和其他阿拉伯国家向美国总统特朗普转达希望促使以色列立即停火的要求，并愿意重启核协议谈 判。 Evercore ISI副董事长克里希纳·古哈（Krishna Guha）周一在一份报告中表示："市场从冲突可能维持在有限战争模式的前景中获得了些许安慰。我 们认为这是可能的，但在 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, leading to a new high in gold prices over the past two months [1] - Weak inflation data from the US has reinforced market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, increasing the attractiveness of gold assets [1] - Upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chairman Powell's speech, are expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] Group 2 - A trading strategy suggests buying gold on a pullback to the 3420-3415 range, with a stop loss at 3407 and a target of 3440-3460 [2] - Technical analysis indicates a critical resistance zone at 3455-3460; failure to break this level may lead to a technical pullback [3] - Key support levels to monitor include 3420, which is a short-term pivot point, and 3410-3405, which is a critical trend support level [3]

一、现货黄金基本面： ①地缘政治风险持续升温 中东局势因沙特与法国推动巴勒斯坦建国会议而复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙进一步加剧区域紧张。同时，俄乌冲突升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰发动大规 模无人机袭击，波兰紧急部署战机应对边境威胁，东欧地缘风险显著上升。地缘不确定性直接推升避险需求，伦敦金现价格近期维持在3360.00美元/盎司以 上高位震荡，反映市场对冲突升级的担忧。 ②美国通胀与货币政策预期博弈 尽管美国5月CPI同比2.4%符合预期，核心CPI环比0.1%低于市场预测，但关税传导效应已开始显现，服装、家具等进口商品价格因特朗普政府关税政策出现 上涨，可能延缓通胀回落进程。美联储6月维持利率不变，但暗示下半年可能加息，市场对9月降息的预期降温至50%以下，美元指数在CPI数据公布后短暂 下滑至98.87，为黄金提供短期反弹动力。不过，消费者通胀预期回落（一年期通胀预期从3.6%降至3.2%）缓解了部分政策压力，黄金短期走势需关注6月 CPI数据对美联储政策路径的指引。 ③央行购金与去美元化趋势强化 综合来看，当前黄金基本面呈现"地缘风险主导、政策预期分化、央行购金托底"的格局。中东与俄乌冲突的持续发酵、美国通 ...