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重磅发布|我为何在狂风暴雨中坚定看多美元资产?《关税冲击:美国宏观经济与金融市场报告》
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-11 11:21
Group 1 - The article emphasizes a bullish outlook on US dollar assets despite market turmoil caused by reciprocal tariffs, suggesting that the worst is over and that current conditions present a buying opportunity for US stocks [2] - The report outlines the impact of reciprocal tariffs on the US macroeconomic cycle, analyzing the asset-liability cycle, technological innovation cycle, and physical investment cycle [4][8] Group 2 - The asset-liability cycle indicates that when balance sheets expand, it leads to economic growth and rising inflation, while contraction results in recession and deflation. The public sector's intervention aims to stabilize these cycles [5][6] - Since the 2008 financial crisis, the US has seen a significant expansion of public sector balance sheets, with the Federal Reserve's assets increasing from $0.9 trillion to $4.5 trillion, and federal debt rising from $9.21 trillion to $18.14 trillion [7][15] - The private sector's leverage ratios have decreased significantly, with household leverage dropping from 98.5% to 78.8% and corporate leverage from 74% to 71.9% [11] Group 3 - The technological innovation cycle is marked by the emergence of AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, which has spurred significant capital inflow into the tech sector, leading to a bullish trend in tech stocks [17][22] - It is anticipated that the next 3-5 years will see substantial commercial outcomes from large models in various industries, enhancing labor efficiency and investment returns [22] Group 4 - The physical investment cycle is entering a new phase, driven by aging infrastructure and the recent $1.2 trillion infrastructure investment bill passed during the Biden administration [23][26] - The current environment suggests a potential expansion in physical investment, although uncertainties remain regarding the Trump administration's stance on infrastructure spending [26] Group 5 - The overall economic outlook indicates that the US is transitioning from a low-growth, low-inflation, and low-interest-rate environment to a new cycle of growth, with significant potential for asset price increases in the coming years [26]
中贝通信: 天健会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)关于中贝通信集团股份有限公司2024年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函的专项说明
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 11:19
目 录 | 一、关于智算业务……………………………………………………第 1—8 页 | | --- | | ……………………………………………第 8—17 页 二、关于长期资产购建 | 三、关于对浙储能源股权投资……………………………………第 17—23 页 问询函专项说明 天健函〔2025〕2-124 号 上海证券交易所上市公司管理一部: 由中贝通信集团股份有限公司(以下简称中贝通信或公司)转来的《关于中 贝通信集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告的信息披露监管问询函》(上证公函 20250690 号,以下简称问询函)奉悉。我们已对问询函中所提及的需要我们 说明的事项进行了审慎核查,现汇报说明如下。 本说明中金额单位如无特别说明,均为万元表示。 一、关于算力业务 年报及其他公告显示,2024 年公司智算业务实现营业收入 2.69 亿元,同 比增长 3696.16%。分季度看,2024 年上半年、2025 年第一季度分别实现收入 季度单季度智算业务平均收入相对较少。而 2024 年下半年公司算力规模持续增 长,2024 年 7 月末公司投入使用的各智算中心算力集群累计算力已超过 10000P, 至 2024 ...
ST岭南: 岭南生态文旅股份有限公司向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券2025年度第二十二次临时受托管理事务报告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-11 11:19
向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券 债券受托管理人 二〇二五年七月 重要声明 证券代码:002717.SZ 证券简称:ST 岭南 债券代码:128044.SZ 转债简称:岭南转债 岭南生态文旅股份有限公司 本报告依据《可转换公司债券管理办法》《岭南生态文旅股份有限公司与广 发证券股份有限公司关于岭南生态文旅股份有限公司 2018 年公开发行的可转换 公司债券之受托管理协议》(以下简称"受托管理协议")《岭南生态文旅股份 有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集说明书》(以下简称"募集说明书")等 相关公开信息披露文件、第三方中介机构出具的专业意见等,由债券受托管理 人广发证券股份有限公司(以下简称"广发证券")编制。广发证券对本报告 中所包含的从上述文件中引述内容和信息未进行独立验证,也不就该等引述内 容和信息的真实性、准确性和完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责任。 据公司《关于"岭南转债"不能按期兑付本息的公告》(公告编号:2024- 进行本息兑付。 据公司《关于公司主体及相关债券信用等级的公告》(公告编号:2024- C,下调"岭南转债"的信用等级为 C。 "岭南转债"逾期事项可能会影响其他债权人对公司的信心,从而进一 ...
36氪出海·港股|锦江国际赴港上市:出海十年,为何至今难盈利?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-11 11:04
手握全球最多门店,海外业务却连续五年亏损超23亿——锦江国际正带着这组矛盾数据叩响港交所大门。 2024年6月29日,锦江国际集团正式向港交所递交上市申请。一旦上市成功,这家中国规模最大的酒店集团将成为国内首个同时在 A 股和港股挂牌的酒店企 业。 锦江国际,一个对普通消费者来说略显陌生的名字,但它旗下的霓虹招牌却几乎无处不在——锦江之星、麗枫、喆啡、维也纳、希尔顿欢朋,从快捷酒店到 中高端市场,这些品牌构成了中国人出行住宿的日常选择。 从海外业务来看,截至去年末,锦江国际的触角已延伸至全球55个国家和地区,仅在法国就拥有773家酒店,在欧洲、亚洲、美洲和非洲另有近400家门店。 锦江国际的出海路径颇具代表性,同时此次赴港募集的资金也将主要投向海外扩张、债务优化和运营资金补充。业内有人认为,锦江国际的赴港上市动作不 仅是锦江自身国际化战略的一部分,更可能成为国内酒店集团掀起港股上市潮的信号。因此,我们试图将锦江国际作为一个赴港募资的样本,解析港股资本 如何激活其海外版图。 靠并购狂奔的10年 锦江酒店的源头可追溯至1935年上海长乐路的一家川菜馆。 1994年登陆 A 股时,它还只是区域性酒店企业。最早的出海 ...
量化领跑!上半年百亿私募产品榜揭晓!龙旗科技、稳博投资、鸣石基金登榜!
私募排排网· 2025-07-11 10:59
本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 (点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ) 2025年上半年,A股市场在复杂多变的国内外环境中展现较强韧性,整体呈现"震荡上行、结构分化"的格局。上证指数累计上涨2.75%,深证成 指微涨0.48%,创业板指上涨0.53%,而代表小微盘的北证50指数表现最为亮眼,涨幅高达39.45%。 值得注意的是,上半年A股市场成交规模显著放大,期间A股总成交金额达到162.68万亿元,远远超过2024年同期的101万亿元,显示出 A股市 场活跃度正快速提升! 在如火如荼的行情之下,百亿私募旗下产品又有怎样的表现?据私募排排网数据,上半年有业绩显示的百亿私募产品共有495只,上半年收益均 值达到10.18%,超额收益均值达到8.84%。虽然 百亿私募旗下产品收益整体表现亮眼,但不同策略之间却分化明显! 其中,量化多头策略收益 均值高达18.84%,但主观多头收益均值却仅为3.32%。 | 级产品策略 | 二级产品策略 | 私募排排网有业绩显 示的产品数 | 上半年收益均值 | 上半年超额收益均值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 喜你亲杀 | 194 | 18. ...
电投能源(002128) - 002128电投能源投资者关系管理信息20250711
2025-07-11 10:36
证券代码:002128 证券简称:电投能源 内蒙古电投能源股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访√业绩说明会 | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他(请文字说明其他活动内容) | | | 参与单位名称及 投资者网上提问 | | | 人员姓名 | | | 时间 2025 年 7 月 | 11 日(周五)16:00~18:00 | | 地点 | 公司通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"(https://ir.p5w.net) | | 采用网络远程的方式召开业绩说明会 | | | 上市公司接待人 1、董事会秘书李冬 | | | 员姓名 2、资本部主任刘学民 | 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况 | | | 公司就投资者在本次说明会中提出的问题进行了回复: 1、董秘你好,请问公司氧化铝来源是哪里?一般维持多长 | | 时间的库存? | | | | 您好。氧化铝主要来源为山东和河北地区,库存一般 20 天 | | 左右。感谢您的关注。 | | | 投资者关系活动 | 2、作为央企都会表率 ...
银行股不可盲目追高
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-07-11 10:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that bank stocks have replaced long-term government bonds as the preferred investment choice in 2025, with all banks experiencing price increases and many reaching historical highs [1][2] - In 2025, 18 banks have set historical highs, with 16 banks increasing by over 20% and 32 banks by over 10%, while the Shenwan Bank Index has risen by 35.49% in the past year [1] - The rise in bank stocks is attributed to economic pressures leading investors to seek high-dividend sectors, similar to the previous year's trend with long-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - Insurance funds, which were previously focused on local government bonds and real estate bonds, have shifted to bank stocks due to their high dividends that cover liability costs [2] - As of Q1 2025, insurance institutions hold A-share bank stocks valued at 265.78 billion, accounting for 45.05% of their heavy industry allocation [2] - Policy changes have facilitated insurance investments in bank stocks, with multiple instances of insurance companies increasing their stakes in banks in 2025 [2] Group 3 - The issuance of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds by commercial banks has accelerated, with over 800 billion issued in 2025, indicating strong capital-raising efforts [3] - The average price-to-book ratio for A-share listed banks was 0.74 as of July 11, 2025, with the highest being 1.09 for China Merchants Bank [3] Group 4 - The price-to-book ratio for major banks has nearly doubled since its lowest point in November 2022, driven by policy support and asset scarcity [4] - The sustainability of the current rise in bank stocks is questioned, as policy support has limits and is aimed at improving the financial health of banks [4] Group 5 - Despite the current profitability of commercial banks, net interest margins are declining, and asset growth is slowing, which may lead to reduced profit growth in the future [5] - The total assets of commercial banks grew by 7.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but this is a significant decrease from the previous year's growth of 11.7% [5] Group 6 - Future banking strategies may involve reducing asset scales to alleviate capital pressure, suggesting limited upward momentum for bank stock prices [6] - The rise in bank stock prices is viewed as a temporary phenomenon, and investors are advised to approach with caution [6]
屡刷历史新高!比特币逼近12万美元,“加密政策周”即将来临
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-07-11 10:19
Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin prices have reached new historical highs, with significant increases in the cryptocurrency market, driven by institutional investments and favorable regulatory expectations [2][4][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin price surpassed $117,455, with a daily increase of 5.59% and a year-to-date increase of approximately 20% [2]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.7 trillion, with Bitcoin holding a market share of 62.5% [2]. - Ethereum also saw a price increase, surpassing $3,000 with a daily rise of about 7% [4]. Institutional Investment - Institutional investments have been a key driver of the recent price surge, with significant inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs [4]. - As of July 10, the net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.176 billion, marking six consecutive days of inflows, while Ethereum ETFs saw $383 million in inflows over five days [4]. - A report indicated that 125 publicly traded companies hold a total of 847,000 Bitcoins, representing 4.03% of the total supply, with a quarterly increase of 60.93% [5]. Regulatory Environment - Upcoming legislation in the U.S. is expected to provide a more favorable regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which may further support Bitcoin prices [7]. - The anticipation of the "GENIUS Act" and the "CLARITY Act" is contributing to positive market sentiment [7]. Market Sentiment and Risks - The market sentiment is currently characterized by "greed," with a fear and greed index reading of 71 [2]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings about the inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies and the need for investors to remain cautious [3][5]. - The correlation between Bitcoin prices and the performance of tech stocks suggests that macroeconomic factors will play a significant role in Bitcoin's future price movements [6][8]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 in Q3 and potentially $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by increased demand and limited supply [9]. - The ongoing influx of institutional capital is expected to significantly influence Bitcoin's price trajectory [9].
5连板国投中鲁:公司生产经营情况未发生重大变化 股票交易存在较大波动风险
news flash· 2025-07-11 10:12
5连板国投中鲁:公司生产经营情况未发生重大变化 股票交易存在较大波动风险 智通财经7月11日电,国投中鲁(600962.SH)公告称,公司股票连续5个交易日涨停,累计涨幅61.13%, 显著高于同期上证指数,存在较大波动风险。公司主营业务、生产经营情况及经营环境与前期披露的信 息相比未发生重大变化,不存在应披露而未披露的重大事项。此外,公司正在筹划的重大资产重组事 项,标的资产的审计、评估、尽职调查等工作尚未完成,能否顺利通过相关审批及实施存在不确定性。 ...
美联储理事沃勒:可以考虑7月降息,支持继续缩表,增加短期资产比重
华尔街见闻· 2025-07-11 10:04
周四,美联储当红理事沃勒(Christopher Waller)表示,美联储难以控制的外部因素推高了资产负债 表规模,他强调,美联储应继续缩减资产负债表规模,但幅度不应像一些观察人士和经济学家所建议的 那样大。 沃勒表示,美联储应将银行准备金规模从目前的3.26万亿美元降至约2.7万亿美元。再加上美联储所持 货币和美国财政部一般账户余额, 总体资产负债表将降至5.8万亿美元,而当前为6.7万亿美元。 "我认 为我们很可能可以在一段时间内继续让部分到期和提前偿付的证券自然退出资产负债表,从而减少准备 金余额。" 需要注意的是,准备金的最低"充足"水平对估算美联储在不扰乱隔夜融资市场的情况下可以缩表的空间 至关重要。 根据最新数据,美联储的银行准备金为3.26万亿美元。华尔街策略师们估计,为保持流动性充足并避免 市场压力,准备金余额应保持在3万亿至3.25万亿美元。 沃勒指出,一些市场人士主张美联储的资产结构应模仿国债市场本身,即将短期资产比例降至20%,以 避免对收益率曲线的某一部分造成压力: 沃勒提出"充足"准备金具体数值的做法有别于他的同事们,包括那些负责资产负债表管理的纽约联储的 官员们,他们通常更笼统地 ...