投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 股 損 行 情 综 试 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/7/4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.51 | -4.43 | DR007 | 1.91 | -3.79 | | | GC001 | 1.15 | -20.00 | GC007 | 1.49 | -1.50 | | ह | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.61 | -1.35 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 而 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | 0.50 | | 市 | | | | | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.30 | 4.00 | | ...

日前，国家金融监督管理总局官网发布《国家金融监督管理总局山西监管局关于山西农村商业联合银行 股份有限公司股东资格的批复》，同意山西农商联合银行股东资格，山西农商联合银行收购清徐农商银 行后，持有清徐农商银行10.07亿股，持股比例为93.2%。 截至目前，已有多家农商联合银行投资省内农商银行。但据记者了解，此前农商联合银行投资省内农商 银行股份比例普遍不高。像山西农商联合银行这样，持有省内农商银行93.2%股份的情况较为少见。 山西农商联合银行创立大会暨股东大会第一次会议召开时，时任山西省相关领导在会上首次提出山西农 商联合银行将采取"上参下"模式改革。 新社汇平台联合创始人煜阳对《农村金融时报》记者表示，农商联合银行高比例持有省内农商银行股 权，对后者长远发展有如下促进作用：一是增加农商联合银行话语权，深度参与省内农商银行公司治 理，引入现代金融企业制度，推动省内农商银行完善董事会结构、强化内控机制。同时，通过培训、派 驻干部等方式下沉，提升省内农商银行专业化水平。二是实现跨区域整合，通过集中采购、共享科技系 统等方式降低县级行社运营成本，形成规模经济。三是通过省级统筹，将更多信贷资源配置到当地农业 产业园 ...

中金公司近日研报重申，看好银行相对收益和绝对收益，其中H股表现好于A股。该机构分析称，当前 保险负债成本相对大部分金融资产收益率仍然较高，以银行为代表的高股息资产配置需求提升。与公募 基金相比，保险资金投资港股可免除股息税，因此H股银行相对A股银行股息更具吸引力。 平安证券在银行业中期策略报告中指出，从全年维度看，核心主业的企稳有望支撑银行整体基本面保持 稳健。利差业务和负债端成本所展现的积极信号有望在后续持续体现，对于全年板块营收的表现无需过 度担忧，从而对盈利平稳增长起到支撑。目前板块平均股息率达到4.01%，结合监管一系列引导中长期 资金入市的措施，预计板块的股息配置价值吸引力仍将持续。 基于此，有闲置资金需要做配置的投资者，不妨考虑银行板块，当然，也可以选择估值更低的港股市场 的银行股，效仿险资来抄作业，选择诸如港股通金融ETF（513190）这种H股银行占比约65%的投资标 的。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 多只银行股价格再度创下历史新高。2025年下半年才开始4个交易日，多只银行股就不断刷新新高。 回顾今年上半年，银行板块持续受益于高股息板块的投资热度，保险资金等中长期资金入市加快，频频 举牌上市 ...

Group 1 - The banking industry is experiencing a significant adjustment in management, with numerous high-level executive changes across various banks, including state-owned, joint-stock, and city commercial banks [1][2] - Over 20 commercial banks have seen new appointments for vice presidents and above this year, indicating a trend towards a more dynamic leadership structure [1] - The approval of new executives by the financial regulatory authority has been a common theme, with several banks announcing new appointments and awaiting regulatory approval [1][2] Group 2 - There is a noticeable trend towards younger executives in the banking sector, with a majority of new appointments being individuals born in the 1970s and 1980s, reflecting a shift in management demographics [3] - The push for younger leadership is driven by the need for digital transformation and strategic shifts within banks, as well as policy encouragement for management iteration [3] - The frequency of executive changes in the banking industry has increased, suggesting a growing density of talent exchange, which is linked to the acceleration of digital transformation and internal operational changes [3] Group 3 - The executive appointment mechanism in banks is undergoing profound changes, with a diversification in recruitment methods, including market-based selection for many small and medium-sized banks [4] - Market-based recruitment is seen as a way to enrich the talent pool and enhance management effectiveness, which is crucial for high-quality development in the competitive banking landscape [4] - Several small and medium-sized banks have made leadership changes this year, indicating a strategic move to seek new growth momentum through personnel adjustments [4]

数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证银行指数(399986)前十大权重股分别为招商银行(600036)、兴业银 行(601166)、工商银行(601398)、交通银行(601328)、农业银行(601288)、江苏银行(600919)、浦发银行 (600000)、民生银行(600016)、平安银行(000001)、上海银行(601229)，前十大权重股合计占比65.64%。 中国银河证券指出，货币政策适度宽松基调预计不变，降准降息空间仍存。存贷款非对称降息落地，息 差企稳有支撑。一揽子金融政策加码，结构性工具加力，银行基本面积极因素持续积累，业绩拐点可 期。中长期资金力量壮大，公募低配有望修复，ETF扩容加速利好权重股，增量资金加速银行估值重 塑。 银行ETF指数紧密跟踪中证银行指数，为反映中证全指指数样本中不同行业公司证券的整体表现，为投 资者提供分析工具，将中证全指指数样本按中证行业分类分为11个一级行业、35个二级行业、90余个三 级行业及200余个四级行业，再以进入各一、二、三、四级行业的全部证券作为样本编制指数，形成中 证全指行业指数。 截至2025年7月4日 13:36，中证银行指数(3999 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector in Hong Kong is experiencing mixed performance, with the non-bank financial ETF showing significant growth over the past year and recent inflows indicating strong investor interest [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the non-bank financial ETF has seen a net value increase of 66.53% over the past year, ranking 54 out of 2897 index stock funds, placing it in the top 1.86% [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum single-month return of 31.47% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a total increase of 38.25% during that period [2]. - The ETF's average monthly return during up months is 7.04%, with a historical one-year holding profit probability of 100% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The non-bank financial theme index includes up to 50 listed companies selected from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of non-bank financial companies within this scope [2][4]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 77.92% of its total weight, with major contributors being China Ping An, AIA, and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, each exceeding 14% [3]. - Recent market trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite, with the non-bank financial sector showing better performance compared to other high-dividend sectors [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on insurance stocks with stable fundamentals and beta elasticity, highlighting the ongoing strong demand for household savings and the potential for steady performance in 2025 [4]. - The securities sector is advised to be monitored for firms with balanced business structures and resilience, benefiting from ongoing capital market reforms [4]. - The non-bank financial ETF is noted as the first and only ETF tracking the non-bank index, providing unique investment opportunities without QDII quota restrictions [4].

民生银行再度迎来大股东增持。 券商中国记者查阅上市公司公告获悉，香港立业成立于2003年11月，系立业集团持股100%的下属子公司。 2023年9月末，立业集团首度现身民生银行大股东之列，以3.15%的持股比例位列第七大股东。此后，立业集 团持续增持民生银行股份，到2024年3月末，合计拥有该行4.49%股份，仅次于同方国信投资控股有限公司及 其一致行动人，位列该行第五大股东。 香港立业此番增持后，立业集团已合计持有民生银行21.66亿股，占该行总股本比例为4.945%，跃居该行第四 大股东的同时，距离总持股5%的举牌线，仅差0.055个百分点。 2024年6月，民生银行董事会通过关于提名非执行董事、执行董事候选人的议案，随后在股东大会上，立业集 团创始人、华林证券董事长林立被选举为非执行董事。不过，据民生银行披露，截至2024年末，林立的董事任 职资格尚需国家金融监管总局核准。 工商资料显示，立业集团最大股东为深圳前首富林立，持股达99.99%。该集团成立于1995年，产业布局覆盖 新能源、化工、生物医药、综合金融等多个领域，控、参股子公司超百家。金融领域，立业集团控股上市券商 华林证券；2014年与腾讯等 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jilin Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. (Jilin Jin Kong) and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank announced a voluntary conditional cash offer for all issued H shares at HKD 0.70 per share, representing a premium of approximately 70.73% over the last trading price of HKD 0.41 per share [1] Group 1: Offer Details - The total cash consideration for the H share offer is approximately HKD 677 million, while for the domestic shares, it amounts to RMB 2.588 billion [1] - The offer will be unconditional upon approval from shareholders at a special general meeting and independent H shareholders at a class meeting [1] Group 2: Reasons for the Offer - Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's H shares have been trading between HKD 0.33 and HKD 0.50 for the 46 trading days prior to the suspension, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 21.19% and the Hang Seng Mainland Banks Index increased by 14.59% during the same period [2] - The bank's stock price has declined by 6.82% during the same timeframe, with an average daily trading volume of only 0.13% of the total issued H shares, indicating a loss of investor confidence [2] - The low trading volume of H shares, averaging about 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.02% over the last 90, 180, and 360 days respectively, limits the bank's ability to raise capital effectively [2] Group 3: Future Operations - After the offer, Jilin Jin Kong has no intention to list the shares on other markets, focusing instead on local operations as a regional rural commercial bank [3] - The bank anticipates a net loss of RMB 1.7 billion to RMB 1.9 billion for the year ending December 31, 2024, primarily due to policy-driven fee reductions and external economic pressures [3] - The bank is implementing stricter asset risk classifications and increasing provisions to enhance risk resistance capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Renminbi Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (CNH HIBOR) has continued to decline, with the overnight rate reaching a new low not seen in over three weeks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Movements - The overnight HIBOR decreased by 14 basis points to 1.38333%, marking the lowest level since June 11 [1] - The one-week HIBOR slightly fell to 1.62000%, hitting a low not seen since June 23 [1] - The two-week HIBOR dropped to 1.61727%, reaching a new low since June 19 [1] - The one-year HIBOR decreased to 1.87242%, setting a new historical low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weighted average interest rate for overnight pledged repos in China's interbank market has dropped to around 1.30%, currently reported at 1.3047%, reaching a new low since October of the previous year [1] Group 1 - The overnight pledged repo rate has shown a significant decline, indicating potential changes in liquidity conditions within the interbank market [1] - The rate's drop to 1.3047% reflects a broader trend of easing monetary conditions in the financial system [1] - The intraday low reached is the lowest since October of the previous year, suggesting a notable shift in market dynamics [1]