Core Insights - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) is significantly impacted by mortgage rates, which have recently declined, with the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.81% as of June 18, 2025, down from 6.87% a year ago [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates and Demand - Lower mortgage rates are expected to improve housing affordability challenges, leading to increased loan demand [2] - The decline in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance purchase originations and refinancing activities, which will likely improve NLY's book value as spreads in the Agency market tighten [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Annaly's net interest income (NII) rose to $219.9 million in Q1 2025, a significant recovery from a negative NII of $6.45 million in the same quarter the previous year, aided by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts of 100 basis points in 2024 [4] - The upward trend in NII is expected to ease earnings pressure for Annaly, thereby supporting the company's overall performance [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - AGNC Investment's NII also reflects the influence of mortgage rates, with a reported NII of $159 million compared to a negative NII of $30 million in the prior-year quarter, indicating a potential reduction in operational challenges [5] - Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) experienced a 27.2% year-over-year decline in NII to $75.4 million in Q1 2025, but is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates, which may ease earnings pressure [6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - NLY shares have increased by 9.6% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 4.5% [7] - Annaly's forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio stands at 0.98X, slightly above the industry average of 0.96X [10] Group 5: Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NLY's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year increase of 6.3%, with a further growth expectation of 1.4% for 2026, reflecting upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [12]

Housing Market Overview - Housing starts and permits in May were below expectations [2] - New home construction is at a five-year low [1][5] Multifamily Housing - Multifamily starts decreased over 30% month-to-month [2] - Record supply of new apartment units has been delivered in recent years [2] - Permits, a future indicator, are higher due to stronger rental demand [2] Single-Family Housing - Single-family starts were flat for the month and down over 7% year-over-year [3] - Low builder sentiment and weaker outlook from Lenar's earnings report contribute to the slowdown [3] - Consumer reluctance to invest due to high costs, rates, and economic uncertainty [3] Mortgage Demand - Mortgage applications to purchase a home dropped again last week [4] - Applications for newly built homes were down over 4% year-over-year in May [4] - Mortgage rates have been hovering just below 7% [4]

After President Trump’s tax bill pushed mortgage rates higher in late May, the momentum has reversed—with monthly payments now notably more affordable. https://t.co/64mPv4PLMt ...

Confidence among US homebuilders in June hit its lowest level since December 2022 as high mortgage rates and policy uncertainty hit wouldbe buyers. With more on the landscape for homebuilders, we have Katie Hubard, Walton Global's executive vice president of capital markets joining us now. So Katie, there was actually an expectation we would see sentiment rebound here.Clearly not the case. What does this tell us about where home builders and really the overall housing market stand right now. Yes.Hi Ally, th ...

Well, Rick, home builder sentiment in June dropped two points from May to 32 on the NAHB index. The street was actually looking for a slight improvement. This index has only seen a lower reading twice since the Great Recession back in 2012.And that was in December of 2022 when mortgage rates first shot up from those pandemic record lows and in April 2020 at the very start of the pandemic. Now, the builder site high mortgage rates, tariffs, and overall economic uncertainty of the index's three components. Cu ...

While mortgage rates hold steady for another week, affordability does rem remain a pain point in the housing market. Our next guest pointing to a mixed picture in leading indicators for demand. That's Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley, US housing strategist and co-head of securitized products research.Jim's here with me in the studio. Thanks for being here. Thank you for having me.So given that we have not seen that much movement on rates and notably not that much relief on rates, do we remain in this sort of stuck ...

EchoStar was preparing to file bankruptcy. Well, next week we get clues on the state of the housing market when Lennar reports earnings on Monday right here on overtime, we're also going to get updates on housing starts and building permits for May. But in the meantime, housing research firm Zelman and Associates putting out a home building survey today, which shows homebuilder confidence dropping to its lowest level since January 2023.Joining me now is Zelman and Associates executive vice president Ivy Zel ...

30-year mortgage rates have declined for four consecutive days, reaching their lowest level since early May. Rates for most other loan types also dropped. https://t.co/zgQyL1vbmo ...

Mortgage Rate Trends - 30-year mortgage rates experienced a two-day increase followed by a two-day decline [1] - Rates have decreased across various loan types [1]

After sinking for two weeks and then jumping for two days, 30-year mortgage rates retreated a bit Monday. Rates dipped for several other loan types as well. https://t.co/THS2K2jpF6 ...