文︱陆弃 近期，软银集团CEO孙正义提出了设立美日联合主权财富基金的构想，消息一经披露，便引起了广泛 关注。根据《金融时报》的报道，三位知情人士透露，孙正义的这一提议旨在通过大规模投资美国科技 与基础设施领域，推动美日两国经济的深度合作。消息指出，这一计划已被美国和日本两国的最高政治 层级讨论过，并有可能成为其他国家政府与美国深化投资合作的模范。 美日联合主权财富基金的设想，无论从规模、结构还是潜在影响来看，都充满了震撼效应。根据初步的 设想框架，美国财政部与日本财务省将共同拥有和运营该基金，双方各自持有重大股权，并计划将其对 外开放，吸引其他有限合伙投资者参与。更为引人注目的是，该基金的初始资本预计将达到3000亿美 元，未来还将通过高杠杆运作进行扩展，资金规模庞大，且投资目标明确，聚焦于科技与基础设施两大 关键领域。 这一提议的背后，孫正義和软银显然看中了美日两国的战略合作潜力，尤其是在全球科技竞争日益激烈 的背景下，如何通过金融手段推动两国在高技术领域的投资合作，成为了一个备受瞩目的话题。而这种 合作模式，若顺利推进，也有可能为其他国家和地区提供一种新的合作范式，重新定义全球资本流动与 跨国投资的模式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Sarvam AI has launched the Sarvam-M model, a 24 billion parameter mixed language model, which is considered a breakthrough in India's AI research but has received a lukewarm response in terms of downloads and usage [1][3][4]. Group 1: Model Overview - Sarvam-M is based on Mistral Small and supports 10 Indian languages, including Hindi and Bengali [1]. - The model has only achieved 718 downloads on Hugging Face, leading to criticism from industry experts [1][3]. - Comparatively, a similar model developed by two South Korean students received around 200,000 downloads, highlighting Sarvam-M's underperformance [3]. Group 2: Company Background - Sarvam AI was founded in July 2023 by Vivek Raghavan and Pratyush Kumar, with a mission to popularize generative AI in India [6]. - Kumar emphasizes the need for India to develop its own foundational AI models using local data, rather than merely adapting Western models [6][7]. - The company has raised $41 million from notable investors, with a projected valuation of $111 million by March 2025 [11]. Group 3: Performance and Criticism - Despite claims of outperforming Llama-4 Scout, Sarvam-M showed a slight decline in English knowledge assessments [7]. - Critics argue that the model lacks a substantial audience and practical utility, questioning the rationale behind its development [3][11]. - Some users have pointed out potential applications for Sarvam-M, but concerns remain about its market fit and the readiness of target users to adopt such technology [12][19]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The launch of Sarvam-M reflects a broader ambition for India to establish its own AI technology stack, but the gap between expectations and actual results raises questions about the viability of this initiative [15][19]. - The challenges of developing AI solutions tailored to India's diverse linguistic landscape are acknowledged, with a call for more focus on practical applications [18][19].

本周，美元呈现下跌态势，主要是因资金逃离美元资产。资金出现这种流向，主要源于评级公司调降了 美国主权信用评级、特朗普减税法案对美国赤字前景的负面影响，以及关税后续谈判进展不顺利等因 素。 基于同样的原因，美国国债市场本周也遭遇大幅下跌。就当前情况来看，资金外流的最主要去向是欧 盟、英国及日本。 在本周，美国公布的经济指标数量并不多。周四公布的数据显示，尽管当前经济存在较高的不确定性， 但5月劳动力市场依然保持着稳健的增长态势。至5月17日当周初请失业金人数为22.7万人，优于市场预 期的23万人。这一数据在一定程度上反映了美国劳动力市场的韧性，但未能改变美元因资金外流等因素 导致的下跌趋势。 每日经济新闻 在经历连续四周的上涨之后，本周美元走势急剧转弱。美元指数在一周内累计大幅下跌1.84%，降至 99.10点。深入分析本周美元下跌的原因，主要有以下三个方面： 评级下调引发投资者信心动摇：5月16日，评级公司穆迪将美国主权信用评级从"Aaa"下调至"Aa1"。这 一举措使得投资者原本就存在的对美元资产的回避心理进一步加剧。穆迪作出这一评级调整，主要是出 于对美国超高财政赤字及沉重债务负担的担忧。这一评级下调事 ...

Group 1 - The incident of Microsoft blocking the email account of the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor has raised significant concerns regarding Europe's digital sovereignty [1] - The Netherlands has initiated a comprehensive review of its digital infrastructure in response to the incident, highlighting the risks associated with reliance on American tech companies [1][2] - A report from the Dutch Court of Audit indicated that over half of the Dutch government services operate on cloud systems controlled by U.S. companies, posing serious risks to service continuity [1] Group 2 - The European Union has been proactive in addressing these risks by introducing regulations like the Digital Markets Act to reduce dependence on foreign platforms and promote internal technological competition [2] - Despite ambitious plans, Europe faces significant challenges in achieving digital sovereignty due to deep-rooted reliance on U.S. cloud technologies, with migration to local systems taking considerable time [2] - The EU has opted for regulatory measures to limit the influence of U.S. tech giants, as evidenced by recent fines imposed on Apple and Meta for violations of the Digital Markets Act [2] Group 3 - In light of increasing pressure, U.S. tech companies are reassessing their strategies, with Microsoft committing to respect European laws and planning to increase data center capacity in Europe by 40% [3] - The email blocking incident has highlighted a critical gap in Europe's digital infrastructure, where data may be stored in EU data centers but is still controlled by U.S. companies, thus remaining subject to U.S. jurisdiction [3] - A mixed model is likely to be the short-term reality for European digital sovereignty, with public systems gradually transitioning to EU-controlled infrastructure while non-critical services continue to operate under stricter regulations on U.S. platforms [3]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, proposed the establishment of a US-Japan joint sovereign wealth fund aimed at large-scale investments in the technology and infrastructure sectors in the United States [1] Group 1 - The idea has been presented at the highest political levels in both the US and Japan, potentially serving as a template for other countries to deepen investment relations with the US [1] - To effectively achieve its investment goals, the fund's scale must be "huge," with initial capital potentially reaching $300 billion, followed by high leverage operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of SoftBank, Masayoshi Son, proposed the establishment of a joint sovereign wealth fund between the United States and Japan aimed at making significant investments in the technology and infrastructure sectors in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The proposed fund is intended to facilitate large-scale investments in American technology [1] - The initiative reflects a strategic move to strengthen economic ties between the U.S. and Japan [1] - The focus on infrastructure indicates a potential shift towards enhancing the foundational sectors of the U.S. economy [1]

Group 1 - The core argument revolves around the conflict between Trump and Harvard, which symbolizes a deeper struggle involving global financial capital and the survival of U.S. debt [1][5][10] - Harvard is described as a giant hedge fund, with its endowment functioning as a significant player in the global financial market, utilizing complex investment strategies to achieve excess returns [3][5] - Trump's criticism of Harvard is not merely about educational policies but reflects a broader challenge to the influence of financial capital on U.S. politics and economics [5][6][8] Group 2 - The discussion includes contrasting views on U.S. debt management, with one perspective advocating for extending debt duration while another suggests aggressive measures like currency devaluation and high inflation to alleviate debt pressure [5][6] - The concept of credit sovereignty is introduced, highlighting the struggle for control over the dollar's expansion and asset pricing, with Trump representing national interests against financial capital [6][8] - The current crisis in the U.S. is characterized by financial capital undermining the dollar's credit system, raising questions about the future stability of the U.S. financial framework [10]

Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields in major developed countries have risen significantly, with the US 30-year Treasury yield exceeding 5.15%, marking the highest level since 2007 [1][2] - The recent bond auctions in the US and Japan faced poor demand, with the US 20-year bond auction showing a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46, the lowest since February [2][5] - Japan's 20-year bond auction also recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.5, the worst since 2012, contributing to rising yields in the Japanese bond market [5] Group 2: Dollar Asset Concerns - There is a growing concern regarding the demand for dollar assets, as indicated by a historical peak in bearish sentiment towards the dollar among currency options traders [1][8] - The ICE dollar index has fallen approximately 10% from its yearly high, reflecting a decline in confidence in the dollar [8][11] - Speculative positions show a net short position of $17.32 billion in the dollar, nearing the highest level since July 2023 [11] Group 3: US Sovereign Credit Rating Outlook - Following a downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there are expectations that it may drop further by six levels to BBB+, just above investment grade [13][15] - The current public debt to GDP ratio is around 100%, projected to rise to 134% by 2035, raising concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [13][15] - The market is increasingly worried about the US government's ability to manage spending, especially with recent budget proposals that could significantly increase the deficit [18][20] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Policy Implications - The rising bond yields are putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, with speculation about their decisions in the upcoming June meeting [20] - Analysts suggest that if the Fed signals a hawkish stance, it could exacerbate the bond sell-off and push yields higher, while a dovish signal might lead to dollar depreciation and inflation rebound [20]

点击上图 ▲立即加入 美国5月Markit制造业PMI创三个月新高 美国 5月Markit服务业PMI初值52.3，创下两个月新高，预期51，前值50.8。企业在将进口商品和材料关税上涨的成本转嫁给消费者方面也取得 了成功：综合销售价格指数连续第三个月加速上涨，达到2022年8月以来的最高水平。（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ 美国 5月PMI回暖，增速仍然处于历史低位。5月美国PMI的变动还是与美国关税政策息息相关，美国与中英两国达成初步贸易协定， 制造业企业加紧从这两个国家购进所需产品，以防未来关税政策有变，带动新订单指数走高，企业库存水平快速提升，部分企业试图用囤货来 减弱关税风险。 值得注意的是，美国制造业和服务业出口订单均持续下滑，供应链延期时间被拉长。包括沃尔玛、耐克等美国企业在内，已经开始将关税压力 传导至下游消费者，美国消费者信心连续下降，美国 5月CPI大概率将有所上升。 5月22日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国5月Markit制造业、服务业、综合PMI初值均好于预期，且录得扩张。具体来看，美国5月Markit制造 业PMI初值52.3，创今年2月以来的三个月新高，也是该数据连续第五个月高于50荣枯 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that the sovereign wealth fund plan has been paused until all other matters are resolved [1]