富宝资讯：碳酸锂现货价格较上一交易日环比上涨，富宝电池级碳酸锂报60000元/吨 金十期货6月4日讯，富宝锂电网发布数据显示，电碳现货基差指数为490元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂 报60000元/吨（+200元/吨）；工业级碳酸锂（综合）报59000元/吨（+200元/吨）；电池级碳酸锂长协 均价59700元/吨（持平）；氢氧化锂指数报62583元/吨（持平）；锂辉石（非洲 SC 5%）报415美元/吨 （-5美元/吨）；锂辉石（中国 CIF 6%）报610美元/吨（-5美元/吨）；锂辉石指数（5%≤ Li2O <6%）报 4840元/吨（-60元/吨）；锂云母指数（2%≤ Li2O <4%）报1555元/吨（-52元/吨）；磷锂铝石（7%≤ Li2O <8%）报7050元/吨（-100元/吨）；富锂铝电解质指数报1669元/吨（-20元/吨）；富宝卤水（硫酸 锂）折扣系数报73%（+1.5）。 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 品 研 究 燃料油：日盘跟随原油回弹，短期波动将持续 放大 【趋势强度】 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 低硫燃料油：大幅反弹，外盘现货高低硫价差 暂时收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算份 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2507 | 元/吨 | 2,913 | 0. 34% | | 2. 935 | -0. 10% | | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 2,876 | -0. 10% | | 2,894 | 0. 84% | | | | LU2507 | 元/暖 | 3.509 | 2. 36% | | 3,520 | 1.79% | | | | LU2508 ...

Agriculture - Chicago futures market showed mixed results for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 3, with corn up 0.06% to $4.39 per bushel, wheat down 0.56% to $5.36 per bushel, and soybeans up 0.7% to $10.41 per bushel [2] - The weather in the Midwest is expected to be warm and humid until June 18, which may create favorable growing conditions for crops [2] - Market focus is on potential crop yields in Europe, Russia, Canada, and the U.S. as weather conditions remain uncertain [2] Energy - International oil prices rose on June 3, with WTI crude up 1.42% to $63.41 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.55% to $65.63 per barrel [2] - The risk premium in oil prices has increased due to recent attacks in Ukraine and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear issues [3] - Canadian wildfires have impacted oil sands production by 344,000 barrels per day, approximately 7% of Canada's daily crude output [3] Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3,376.9 per ounce on June 3, following a previous increase and amid profit-taking by investors [5] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased 12 tons of gold in April, a 12% decrease from March [5] - Most base metals on the London Metal Exchange saw price increases, with 3-month tin rising 2.96% to $31,450 per ton and 3-month copper up 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton [5]

（核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 | | 20250603申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 铜： | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：假期LME铜价上涨83美元。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶 | | | | 炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升 | 幅波动 | | | 有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美 国关税进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：假期LME锌价上涨26美元。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据 | | | | 来看， ...

【5月河南猪肉价格先跌后涨，预计6月先弱后强且均价环比窄幅下移】5月份，河南猪肉市场价格先跌 后涨，价格重心窄幅下移。截至5月29日，河南猪肉5月均价19.05元/公斤，环比下跌0.83%，同比下跌 6.88%。月内高点19.40元/公斤在月初，低点18.25元/公斤在5月23日，高低价差1.15元/公斤，波动幅度 较上月扩大109%。 5月，河南猪肉整体价格略高于全国平均水平，日均价差0.41元/公斤。因5月上半旬 河南区域鲜肉供应量偏紧，支撑价格相对强势。 5月河南猪肉供应量高位运行。5月初白条猪肉鲜销量 达28166头，为春节后最高，虽后续几周下滑，但5月平均鲜销量维持年内高位，使价格上行乏力。 鲜 销量提升与生猪出栏量增长相关。2025年河南生猪出栏量同比明显增加，4月样本企业出栏量同比增 68.05%，较上月同比增幅扩大13.98个百分点。5月出栏量预计仍保持较高同比增幅，5月周均鲜销量 24524头，同比增27.73%。 五一小长假后，河南猪肉消费量回落，端午节带动需求回暖，5月末出现翘 尾效应。5月样本企业日均屠宰量27202头，环比下跌6.58%，同比增10.57%。5月末屠宰量小幅反弹，5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The explosion at Youdao Chemical has led to a significant market reaction, with related companies' stock prices surging and the pesticide sector experiencing a notable increase in value [1] Industry Overview - Chlorantraniliprole is a highly effective, broad-spectrum, low-toxicity insecticide widely used in various crops, and it has become the largest-selling insecticide globally since its launch in 2008 [2] - The domestic production capacity of chlorantraniliprole is approximately 200,000 tons per year, but the actual production last year was less than 6,000 tons, indicating a significant oversupply in the long term [2] - The price of chlorantraniliprole has increased from 210,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 250,000 yuan per ton following the explosion, reflecting a 10% increase [2] Company Insights - Youdao Chemical, established in August 2019, is a subsidiary of Haomai Group and is the largest producer of chlorantraniliprole with an annual capacity of 11,000 tons [1] - Hongyang currently has a production capacity of 2,000 tons per year for chlorantraniliprole, with an additional 1,000 tons expected to be completed by September [3] - Lier Chemical is optimistic about the market prospects for chlorantraniliprole and is currently constructing a 5,000-ton production facility [3] - The production of chlorantraniliprole is highly dependent on intermediates, and the shutdown of Youdao Chemical may lead to supply tightness for these intermediates, impacting downstream formulation companies [4]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Limin Holdings Group Co., Ltd. remains stable at AA, reflecting its strong market position in the pesticide industry and improved financial metrics since 2024 [4][5][9]. Company Overview - Limin Holdings is recognized as one of the key pesticide manufacturers in China, maintaining a high market share in the domestic raw material market with a diverse product structure and strong R&D capabilities [4][9]. - The company has seen a continuous increase in patent authorizations and product registrations, indicating robust innovation [4][15]. Financial Performance - Total assets for Limin Holdings were reported at 70.56 billion yuan in 2022, with total liabilities at 42.16 billion yuan, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.75% [6][20]. - The company’s net profit improved significantly from 0.64 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.27 billion yuan in 2022, with a notable increase in operating revenue from 42.24 billion yuan to 50.16 billion yuan [6][17]. - EBITDA increased to 6.12 billion yuan, reflecting improved operational efficiency [7][17]. Market Position and Risks - The company has a strong market presence with a diverse product range, including fungicides, insecticides, herbicides, and veterinary drugs, and has expanded production capacity in recent years [10][11]. - However, the company faces challenges such as fluctuating raw material prices and the need to manage new production capacity effectively [5][9][10]. Investment and R&D - Limin Holdings has maintained a consistent investment in R&D, with expenditures amounting to 2.06 billion yuan in 2022, representing 4.12% of its operating revenue [15][16]. - The company has established multiple R&D platforms and has been collaborating with various biotech firms to develop new agricultural products [15][16]. Future Outlook - The credit outlook for Limin Holdings is stable, with potential for upgrades if capital strength and profitability significantly improve [5][9]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from favorable market conditions and policy support in the agricultural sector, although it must remain vigilant regarding supply and demand dynamics [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][28][31] Core Views - The company is experiencing a short-term revenue decline due to storage price impacts, with a revenue of 1Q25 at 1.543 billion yuan, down 10.62% YoY and 7.58% QoQ. However, a gradual recovery in storage prices is expected in 2Q25, which may lead to performance improvement [1][20][28] - Embedded storage revenue for 2024 reached 4.241 billion yuan, a significant increase of 151.68% YoY, with products entering major client supply chains. AI-related products are also seeing rapid revenue growth, particularly in AI glasses, which are expected to grow over 500% YoY in 2025 [2][28] - The company is making progress in enterprise-level and automotive-grade storage, with advanced wafer-level packaging expected to drive long-term growth. The company has passed various tests and is set to meet advanced storage packaging demands [3][28] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 1.543 billion yuan, with a net profit of -216 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline in profitability due to increased R&D expenses and inventory write-downs [1][28] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.78 billion, 2.00 billion, and 3.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 156, 139, and 73 [3][28] Revenue Breakdown - Embedded storage is projected to generate revenues of 5.439 billion, 6.459 billion, and 7.363 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, driven by a recovery in storage prices and increased shipments [28] - PC storage revenue is expected to be 2.206 billion, 2.283 billion, and 2.363 billion yuan for the same period, benefiting from a gradual market recovery [25][28] - Automotive-grade storage is anticipated to grow to 1.55 billion, 2.94 billion, and 4.18 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, as customer adoption increases [26][28] Market Trends - The global storage market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with NAND Flash prices expected to stabilize in 2Q25 after a decline in 1Q25. The company anticipates a recovery in prices due to inventory adjustments and increased demand from OEMs [20][24][28] - The company is well-positioned in the supply chains of major clients across various sectors, including AI, automotive, and consumer electronics, which supports its growth outlook [2][3][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the prices of certain liquor products in the southwestern region of China have rebounded during the Dragon Boat Festival, with notable increases in products like Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Lang [1][2] - The price increase is attributed to the reduction of inventory levels and the implementation of quantity control measures by liquor companies [1][3] - Specific data shows that the average market price of Feitian Moutai rose to 2606.8 yuan per bottle as of May 31, up from 2586.8 yuan on April 30, marking a 0.77% increase [2] Group 2 - The inventory situation for major liquor brands has improved, with Wuliangye reporting "zero inventory" at some terminals and Luzhou Laojiao indicating that their inventory management is currently safe and controllable [1][3] - The sales performance of Wuliangye's products has been stable, with online sales increasing by 30% year-on-year, while sales on platforms like JD and Tmall grew by 21% [2][3] - Despite the overall price recovery, some products like Mengzhilun M6+ experienced a price decline, with its average market price dropping to 705.7 yuan per bottle from 714.25 yuan [4][5] Group 3 - The overall demand for liquor is under pressure, leading to a slowdown in sales, particularly in the business and corporate group purchase segments [7] - Companies are adjusting their revenue growth targets in response to market conditions, with Moutai aiming for a 9% revenue growth by 2025, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are aligning their targets with macroeconomic indicators [7][8] - Many liquor companies are focusing on the wedding market, with initiatives like "Red Flower Lang's Romantic Wedding Tour" and promotional events to attract potential customers [8]

Group 1 - LME copper closed down by $70, at $9,498 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 4.09% in May [1] - LME aluminum closed down by $6, at $2,444 per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 1.83% in May [1] - LME zinc closed down by $56, at $2,620 per ton, with a cumulative increase of 1.08% in May [1] - LME lead closed down by $5, at $1,958 per ton, remaining flat in May [1] - LME nickel closed down by $139, at $15,237 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of over 1.17% in May [1] - LME tin closed down by $830, at $30,406 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of over 3.00% in May [1] - LME cobalt remained flat, at $33,700 per ton, remaining unchanged in May [1]