债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 非银回流银行，M2 增速回升 ——4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 4 月新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，信贷余额增速 由 7.4%回落至 7.2%；新增社会融资规模 1.16 万亿，同比多增 1.22 万亿元， 社融存量增速由 8.4%回升至 8.7%；M2 同比增速从 7%修复至 8%，新口径的 M1 增速由 1.6%小幅下降至 1.5%。整体来看，季末信贷冲刺形成较为明显的 透支效应，4 月信贷增长大幅偏弱于预期，其中企业部门是明显拖累，但由于 央行"前置降息"，数据发布后市场反应钝化。在政府债券前置发行的支持下， 社融增速继续回升。存款方面，M1 表现不弱，去年手工补息禁止之后，存款 大幅外流形成低基数，非银存款回流支撑本月 M2 增速明显修复。 一、积极信号之中的季节性因素 二季度融出定价相对偏低的情况下，理财等广义基金增配存款带动 M2 增速 明显修复。（1）4 月 M2 减少 8815 亿元，较去年同期少减 2.7 万亿，带动 M2 增速向上回升接近 1 个百分点，其中非银定期存款为主要支撑，当月同比多增 1.9 万亿，与 ...

Economic Overview - As of the end of April, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) stock rebounded to 8.7%, while the credit growth rate under the social financing measure fell to 7.1%[3] - In April, new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion RMB, with RMB loans increasing by 280 billion RMB[5] Government Support - Government bonds continue to support the year-on-year increase in social financing, with new government bonds issued in April totaling 980 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.07 trillion RMB[9] - The issuance of replacement bonds in April approached 260 billion RMB, indicating that corporate medium-to-long-term loans also experienced a year-on-year increase when considering this factor[5] Future Projections - Despite potential pressure on credit due to tariff impacts, social financing and credit growth are expected to fluctuate upwards, with a possibility of the annual peak returning to over 9%[3] - The upcoming months may see improved macroeconomic data, particularly if progress is made in US-China tariff negotiations[5] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Tools - The regulatory body has deployed the first round of monetary policy tools to stabilize growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining economic stability amid international trade tensions[6] - A robust monetary and fiscal toolbox is available, including further reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate reductions, and accelerated issuance of government bonds[6] Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially leading to weaker credit growth and social financing stock growth[31] - Uncertainties remain regarding the final implementation of tariff policies between China and the US, which could impact domestic economic conditions[31]

作 者丨 唐婧 编 辑丨张星 5月1 4日，中国人民银行发布前4月金融数据。数据显示，2 0 2 5年4月末社会融资规模存量为4 2 4 . 0万亿元，同比增长8 . 7%，较上月 上升0 . 3个百分点。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为2 6 2 . 2 7万亿元，同比增长7 . 1%，较上月下滑0 . 1个百分点。 从存量结构看，4月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的6 1 . 9%，同比低0 . 9个百分点；政府债券余额占 比2 0 . 3%，同比高2 . 1个百分点；企业债券余额占比7 . 7%，同比低0 . 4个百分点。 从增量看，2 0 2 5年前四个月社会融资规模增量累计为1 6 . 3 4万亿元，比上年同期多3 . 6 1万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷 款增加9 . 7 8万亿元，同比多增3 3 9 7亿元；政府债券净融资4 . 8 5万亿元，同比多增3 . 5 8万亿元；企业债券净融资7 5 9 1亿元，同比少 4 0 9 5亿元。4月当月，社会融资规模新增1 . 1 6万亿元。 分析人士表示， 政府债券发行加快是前四个月社融最主要的拉动因素。 今年财政预 ...

前四个月累计社融增量为16.34万亿元，同比多增3.61万亿元 。其中，政府债券净融资4.85万亿元（同比多3.58万亿元）是主要支撑。 前四个月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元，与去年同期基本持平 。其中，4月单月新增2800亿元。 5月14日傍晚，央行公布4月金融统计数据报告显示，货币政策宽松与财政发力共同支撑信用扩张，M2和社融增速均超预期。 尽管短期存在地方化债、外部不确定性等压力，但政策组合拳有望稳固经济复苏基础。 // 重磅数据发布 // 4月末M2 余额325.17万亿元， 同比增长8% ， 增速较3月末提升 1个百分点， 超出市场预期的7.2% 。 M1 余额 109.14 万亿元，同比增长 1.5% ，增速较 3 月末略降 0.1 个百分点。 4 月单月社融增量 1.16 万亿元，同比多增 1.22 万亿元。 从贷款结构看，居民贷款前四个月增加 5184 亿元，中长期贷款（如房贷）增加 7601 亿元，但短期贷款减少 2416 亿元。 企业贷款前四个月增加 9.27 万亿元，占整体贷款增量的 92% ，中长期企业贷款占比持续提升。 // 数据解读 // 中证报撰文指出，从前4个月金融总量数据看 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 10.06 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first four months of the year, with a total loan balance of 269.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1] - The structure of credit continues to optimize, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector at 14.71 trillion yuan, increasing by 8.5% [1] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Loan interest rates remain at historical lows, with the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.2%, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year [2] - The People's Bank of China has actively implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, introducing new support measures to effectively stimulate the financing needs of the real economy [2] - The combination of declining interest rates and innovative structural tools is expected to stimulate effective domestic demand and enhance credit demand in key areas, promoting reasonable growth in financial totals [2] Group 3 - In the first four months, RMB deposits increased by 12.55 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 7.83 trillion yuan and non-financial corporate deposits increasing by 4.103 billion yuan [3] - The total balance of RMB deposits reached 314.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8% [3] - In April, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.51 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 1.16 trillion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale and broad money (M2) growth, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The acceleration in government bond issuance has been a significant driver of social financing growth, with net financing exceeding 500 billion yuan in April [1][3] - The shift in credit allocation towards small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector reflects a structural adjustment in the economy [3][4] Monetary and Financial Data - As of the end of April, the social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, with an 8% increase [1] - New social financing in April amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and the growth rate exceeded 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement [1][2] Government Bond Issuance - The net financing from government bonds in the first four months of the year surpassed 500 billion yuan, which is about 3.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and local government refinancing bonds contributed to a net financing of approximately 970 billion yuan, boosting the social financing growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points [1][3] Credit Structure and Allocation - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises increased from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises decreased from 69% to 62% [3] - The allocation of credit has shifted towards the manufacturing and technology innovation sectors, with the share of manufacturing loans rising from 5.1% to 9.3% [3] - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in April were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 50 and 55 basis points, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in foreign trade and ongoing local debt replacement, the introduction of a package of financial policy measures is expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [4] - Overall, the financial volume is anticipated to maintain steady growth in the near term [4]

4 月金融数据解读、银行投资框架及观点更新 20250514 摘要 • 四月社融数据主要依赖政府加杠杆，广义政府融资占比超三分之二，信贷 数据低于预期，企业中长期贷款增速持续下行，反映出经济内生动力不足， 需关注未来政策刺激。 • 居民端信贷表现疲软，短期贷款同比显著下降，反映消费意愿不强，但房 贷利率已降至历史低位，购房现金比例仍高，抑制中长期贷款投放，未来 或有更多促消费政策出台。 • 央行降息有助于稳定居民中长期贷款，M2 增速受益于非银存款高增而提 升，但金融脱媒进程放缓，M1 增速指示 PPI 仍面临通缩压力，监管目标转 向价格考核，避免过度货币扩张。 • 企业贷款供过于求，个人贷款供需平衡，货币政策或更侧重刺激有效贷款 需求，社融及信贷增速预计下行，结构上政府融资为主，投放注重效率， 避免资金空转。 • 银行股投资逻辑基于经济资产质量、利率风险和资金支持，当前投资银行 板块主要基于其稳健利润和稳定股息回报，股息率较高标的更具吸引力， 回报率在 4%-6%之间。 Q&A 四月的金融数据有哪些关键点？ 四月份的新增社会融资规模（社融）为 1.1 万亿元，比去年略有上升。然而， 新增人民币信贷仅为 84 ...

新华财经北京5月14日电（记者翟卓）记者14日从中国人民银行获悉，近年来我国信贷结构持续改善， 有效支持经济结构转型。近5年来企业贷款及居民贷款占比分别升、降约5个百分点。 受访人士表示，近年来，经济结构的优化、高质量发展的需要是促进信贷结构优化的主导力量，同时人 民银行也积极发挥货币信贷政策引导经济结构优化的作用，两方面共同作用下，信贷增量的投向明显改 变，带动信贷存量结构也趋于优化。 在其看来，目前我国贷款余额已超过265万亿元，每一个百分点的存量结构优化作用都非常显著。而且 从存量角度观察，更能反映结构优化的效果和趋势。 如从企业和居民角度看，记者从人民银行获悉，2021年以来，企业贷款占比由63%升至约68%，居民贷 款占比相应由37%降至约32%，一升一降的背后，表明信贷资金更多投向了实体企业，居民融资需求下 降也与买房投资等更趋理性有关。 分企业类型看，2021年以来，小微企业占全部企业贷款比重则由31%升至约38%，大中型企业贷款占比 由69%降至62%。 据介绍，这一方面是因为普惠小微贷款发力明显，助企惠民成效显著，另一方面也与近些年债券等直接 融资发展、大企业融资更趋多元化有关。金融市场发展 ...

广发证券 资深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月社融增加 1.16 万亿元，同比多增约 1.2 万亿元，和市场平均预期大致相当（ WIND 口径）； 社融存量增速为 8.7% ，较上月提升 0.3pct 。各分项中，实体信贷同比少增，未贴现银行承兑汇票与政府 债融资同比大幅多增，其余分项变化有限。 第二， 新增实体信贷 844 亿元，在低基数环境下同比少增 2505 亿元，低于市场预期，和前期出来的 4 月 BCI 企业融资环境指数下降了 3.8 个点至 48 的情况较为吻合。我们理解可能与三个因素有关：一是 4 月关 税冲击下，微观主体均存在较强的观望情绪和审慎预期；二是 4 月一揽子金融政策尚未启动，金融机构行为 上不排除更偏内生的顺周期特征。 5 月初金融监管总局强调"确保应贷尽贷、应续尽续"，实际上就是部署金 融机构逆周期纾困；三是 3 月银行存在较强的利用企业短期融资冲量特征，跨季后在 4 月到期偿还规模也较 高。 第三， 从结构上看，企业部门短贷、中长贷同比都有不同程度的少增，仅票据融资由于风险较低、易冲量继 续保持在同期高点。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in April, new RMB loans increased by 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, while the new social financing scale was 1,158.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1,224.3 billion yuan year-on-year [2] - The decline in new loans is attributed to seasonal factors, with April traditionally being a "small credit month," and increased global trade frictions contributing to market uncertainty and a slowdown in credit expansion for foreign trade enterprises and residents [2][3] - Corporate loans increased by 610 billion yuan in April, which is a decrease of 250 billion yuan compared to April of the previous year, while household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - In April, corporate medium- and long-term loans, short-term loans, and bill financing increased by 250 billion yuan, decreased by 480 billion yuan, and increased by 834.1 billion yuan respectively, with significant decreases in medium- and long-term loans compared to April 2024 [3] - The changes in corporate loans are linked to a sharp change in the external environment in April, leading to increased uncertainty in future expectations for enterprises [3] - The focus of economic policy remains on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption, particularly in service consumption, with the central bank establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program to support key sectors [3][4]