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英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉:不排除全球贸易破裂、英国遭受通胀的可能性,但不认为这是我们的发展方向。
news flash· 2025-05-19 18:56
英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉:不排除全球贸易破裂、英国遭受通胀的可能性,但不认为这是我们的发 展方向。 ...
全球贸易战僵局?贝森特严厉警告!美国想要稀土!中国欲求芯片?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 17:08
互加关税一个月以后,中美之间的谈判已经落地。但是这并不意味着全球贸易战的结束。相反,迄今为 止,全球依然有超过一半的国家没有和美国达成关税协定。 中美关税战还在持续 作为美国的邻国,墨西哥是美国最大的贸易伙伴。然而,墨西哥和美国的协议不仅仅影响这两个国家。 而且因为墨西哥已经成为中国乃至其他各国的转口国家。所以墨西哥其实是包括中国在内的世界各国, 通往美国的一个贸易通道。 对此,美国财政部长贝森特警告:如今90天的"对等关税"暂缓期限已经过半,如果不能和美国达成新一 轮的关税协定,那么就意味着美国对这些国家的关税,将回到4月2日的"对等关税"的税率。 而迄今为止,欧盟、日本、印度等主要国家和经济体依然没有和美国达成协议。就算是中国这边,依然 还需要和美国再次谈判,毕竟中美之间还有24%的"保留税率"需要谈判。 那么,面对美国的极限施压,这些国家是否会选择屈服?中美之间的24%缓冲关税又会谈成什么样子? 今天我们就来深度解读这些话题,码字不易,欢迎点赞,转发,收藏。 全球贸易战开启"激烈谈判" 虽然美国宣布"对等关税"。但是从贸易体量来看,特朗普仅仅拟定了18个"重点贸易谈判对象"。可截止 目前,仅仅只有中国和 ...
贵金属日评-20250519
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:35
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 隔夜伦敦黄金在俄乌谈判前景转弱以及美联储修订货币政策框架的刺激下从 3120 美元/盎司反弹超过 130 美元,但美伊核协议谈判以及伊朗原油出口前景打 压油价并削弱黄金的避险需求和抗通胀需求,5 月 16 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金偏弱回 调到 3210 美元/盎司;目前金价已经回调到 2024 年底再次上涨以来的 38.2%黄金 分割点附近,本区域可能存在一定程度的支撑力度。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政 经格局进入乱纪元模式,黄金的避险需求得到极大 ...
美关税政策加剧全球贸易不确定性——访英国四十八家集团主席杰克·佩里
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-18 21:56
佩里指出,关税如今越来越成为外交政策的"钝器",这一趋势正在削弱支撑全球贸易数十年的规则体 系。 "对于全球贸易界而言,这引发了一个关键问题:如果规则可以一夜之间被改写,企业又如何作出为期 五年、十年的商业决策?"他说:"在全球市场中,不确定性是最昂贵的成本。" 英国四十八家集团主席杰克·佩里近日接受新华社书面专访时表示,美国政府近期推出的一系列关税政 策显示,其贸易政策正从经济合作导向转向地缘政治导向,这一转变将给全球贸易带来更多不确定性。 "美国的这一举措传递出一个信号:市场逻辑正在让位于政治考量。这种做法增加了全球贸易体系的波 动性,而该体系本应建立在可预测性的基础之上。"佩里表示。 作为伦敦出口公司首席执行官,佩里还对因保护主义抬头而重复建设供应链的趋势表示担忧。"当国家 开始搭建彼此平行的供应链时,效率会降低,成本会增加,维系贸易流通的信任也会随之流失。"他 说。 在谈到关税升级是否可能成为一种长期趋势时,佩里表示,局势仍有回转的空间,但这需要政治意愿和 商业现实的共同作用。他指出:"历史告诉我们,保护主义结果将适得其反,长期看会削弱经济增长的 根基。" "扭转这种周期的动力并非来自理想主义,而来自 ...
【西街观察】穿过迷雾寻找确定性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 14:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of cooperation, openness, and inclusivity in navigating global uncertainties and achieving common development [1][2][3] - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum highlighted the challenges of global economic governance amidst trade protectionism, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market volatility [1] - The forum discussed the restructuring of the global monetary system, international trade dynamics, and the fragmentation of geopolitical economies [1][2] Group 2 - Openness is identified as a key factor in breaking down trade barriers, allowing for the free flow of goods, services, and capital, which can enhance resource allocation and economic collaboration [2] - The U.S. unilateralism in trade is critiqued, suggesting that true trade balance requires a focus on domestic economic structure rather than solely external factors [2] - The international monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with the rise of currencies like the euro and renminbi, and innovations in mechanisms that empower developing countries in global financial governance [2] Group 3 - Cooperation is deemed essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change, public health crises, and economic instability, which transcend national borders [3] - China is highlighted for its strategy of activating domestic demand, deepening reform, and promoting technological innovation as a means to contribute to global governance [3] - The forum suggests that countries should focus on maintaining economic security, pursuing structural reforms, and enhancing international collaboration to navigate uncertainties [3]
进出口银行原董事长胡晓炼:国际贸易、投资体系格局变化,有三点值得重视
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 09:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the international trade and investment landscape will undergo changes due to the tariff policies of the Trump administration, with three key areas of focus: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, internal economic structure adjustments in major economies, and currency rebalancing [1][2][4] Group 2 - Cost-effectiveness rebalancing in international trade and investment may increase opportunities for "global south" and emerging market countries, as traditional factors like labor and resources are now joined by innovation, institutional, and green development elements [1][2] - The difficulty of manufacturing returning to the U.S. is highlighted, as the U.S. lacks competitive strength in general processing and labor-intensive industries, leading to a preference for trade and investment in countries with lower costs and tariffs [2] - Major economies will experience profound adjustments in their internal economic structures due to global trade rebalancing, with the U.S. trade deficit increasing over 50% from 2017 to 2024, while the EU's trade surplus has grown over 400% [2] Group 3 - Currency rebalancing is expected to lead to a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system, with more currencies joining the international monetary ranks and increased participation of emerging market currencies in trade and investment [2][4] - The importance of digital currencies is emphasized, particularly their potential role as public goods for international cross-border trade and investment [3] - The possibility of enhancing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function is also discussed, indicating a shift towards a more diverse and inclusive monetary system [4]
胡晓炼:国际货币体系改变从三个方向推进 加密数字货币将被重视
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-05-18 08:02
5月17日,2025年清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳举行。中国进出口银行原董事长,中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼在论坛上表示,特朗普政府推出的关税政策震惊世界。 从美国政府方面来看,希望达到减少贸易逆差、增加美国财政收入的目标。同时也是对国际贸易、投资体系的重构,重构过程中美国主导地位可能进一步突出。 此外,过去以粗加工、简单加工,一般制造业劳动密集型产业为主,现在更多技术领先的已经成为行业有影响力的企业,正朝着成为全球跨国企业方向走。胡晓炼表示,他们的 对外投资不仅仅是为了单一市场目的,而是像国际跨国公司一样需要在全球进行产业链供应链布局,这已经形成趋势。这种企业的投资使得投资所在地工业化水平较快提升,而 且投资也使得自己融入到当地的工业化、绿色化、智慧化发展进程。 胡晓炼进一步指出,在此过程中有三点值得: 值得关注的是,"现在很多企业在走出去,在国外建立相应的工业园区形成产业集群,从单个企业走出去变成带动一批企业走出去效果非常好。"胡晓炼还称,中国企业走出去, 不仅仅是企业自身解决就业、产生税收,而是把当地道路、水电等基础设施建设做好,效果也非常好。企业会积极参与当地基础设施建设,对当地经济发展做出贡献 ...
2025五道口金融论坛|胡晓炼:国际货币体系改变,将更重视加密数字货币
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-17 23:06
Group 1 - The future international monetary system will be more diverse and inclusive, with significant adjustments occurring in the current international trade system, allowing Chinese enterprises to seize opportunities despite changes [1][3] - The rebalancing of trade and investment costs now includes factors such as innovation, institutional frameworks, green development, geopolitical considerations, and ideology, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while still focusing on maximizing efficiency and effectiveness [3] - Historical experience suggests that a country can only effectively resolve trade imbalances when its internal economic structure is more balanced [3] Group 2 - The rebalancing of currencies will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, despite the current dominance of the US dollar facing challenges such as currency weaponization and the Triffin dilemma [3][4] - The emergence of more currencies in international trade will not only serve trade and investment but also contribute to financial stability, with increased attention on the role of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment [4] - Chinese enterprises have shown resilience in international markets, transitioning from labor-intensive to technology-driven investments, and are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth beyond just employment and tax revenue [4]
跨境贸易为什么需要“数字钥匙”
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-05-17 21:53
Core Viewpoint - The draft of the "Convention on International Transferable Goods Documents" initiated by China aims to address the inefficiencies in international trade caused by the lack of property rights attributes in railway transport documents, thereby facilitating smoother global trade operations [1][2][6]. Group 1: Importance of International Trade Documents - International trade documents are essential for various processes in cross-border trade, including payment, transportation, insurance, inspection, customs clearance, and settlement [1]. - The current system primarily relies on maritime bills of lading as property certificates, while railway, road, and air transport documents do not confer ownership rights, limiting their market circulation and financing capabilities [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Inland Countries - Inland countries face significant challenges in cross-border trade efficiency due to the inability to utilize in-transit goods for financing, leading to increased trade costs and risks [2]. - Legal concerns regarding the transfer of ownership during transportation have been raised by multinational companies, highlighting the need for a clear legal framework [2]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions and Benefits - The draft convention proposes the creation of a new type of property certificate—transferable goods documents—that would function similarly to maritime bills of lading, enhancing the flexibility and resilience of international trade [2][3]. - The ability to transfer ownership of in-transit goods is a key value of the proposed documents, allowing for smoother transactions and legal protection across various transport modes [3]. Group 4: Digital Transformation and Security - The convention emphasizes the use of electronic documents to replace traditional paper-based systems, which can lead to delays and risks such as information loss or theft [4]. - The integration of blockchain technology is suggested to ensure the authenticity and immutability of documents, enhancing security and convenience in global trade [5]. Group 5: Economic Impact and Global Trade - The establishment of transferable goods documents is expected to support cash flow for businesses, particularly benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises by providing trade financing options [5]. - The convention is seen as a significant step towards creating a more efficient, transparent, and secure legal framework for global supply chains, with potential benefits for businesses, banks, and governments worldwide [6].
进出口银行原董事长胡晓炼:我国跨境投资逆势增长,民企是主力军
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-17 13:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]