禽养殖 2024A&25Q1 综述 消费品/农林牧渔 2024 年禽板块收入逐季度增长，养殖成本改善驱动板块盈利修复。2025 年看 好下半年白鸡种禽端景气回升，旺季黄鸡价格回暖后有望大幅释放利润弹性。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 圣农发展 | 002299.SZ | 19.6 | 0.58 | 0.89 | 17.8 | 1.9 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 111.8 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 12.2 | 2.6 | 强烈推荐 | | 立华股份 | 300761.SZ | 16.0 | 1.84 | 2.33 | 8.3 | 1.7 | 强烈推荐 | 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 成本改善驱动板块盈利修复，静待鸡价回暖 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券（备注：市值单位为十亿元） 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | ...

证券代码：002157 证券简称：正邦科技 江西正邦科技股份有限公司 编号：20250509 | | 特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 类别 | □媒体采访 | √业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | | 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 | 线上参与正邦科技 2024 | 年度网上业绩说明会的投资者 | | 时间 | 2025 年 05 月 09 日（星期五）下午 | 16:00-17:00 | | 地点 | 价值在线（www.ir-online.cn） | | | 上市公司接待人 | 董事长：鲍洪星先生 总经理：熊志华先生 | | | | 独立董事：曹小秋先生 | | | 员姓名 | 财务总监：王永红先生 | | | | 董事会秘书：王昆先生 | | 问：2025 年一季度公司整体经营情况？ 答：您好，2025 年第一季度公司业务持续增长，第一季度实现营业收入 30.02 亿元，较上年同期大幅增长 108.22%；经营水平大幅提高，实现毛利 4.91 亿元， 较上年增长 138. ...

[分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 电话：18502142884 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com [相Ta关bl报e_告CompanyReport] 2024-10-29 [Ta大ble北_Sto农ckN（ameRptType] 002385） 公司点评 出栏量有望达到 800 万头，完全成本降至 12.9 元 | [T投a资ble评_R级an：k]买入（维持） | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-06 | | [收Ta盘bl价e_（Ba元se）Data] | 4.12 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 5.26/3.70 | | 总股本（百万股） | 4,300 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3,524 | | 流通股比例（%） | 81.95 | | 总市值（亿元） | 177 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 145 | 2024 年，公司饲料外销量 540.55 万吨，同比下降 7.6%。其中，猪料 外销量 427.6 万吨，同比减少 8.2%；反刍料外销量 60.28 万吨，整体 保持平稳；水产料外 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月09日 公 司 简 评 农 林 牧 渔 [Table_invest] 买入（维持） 报告原因：业绩点评 ——公司简评报告 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 事件：公司发布2024年年报和2025年一季报，2024年实现营业收入1049.24亿元，同比 +16.68%；归母净利润92.3亿元，同比+244.46%。2025年一季度实现营业收入243.31亿 元，同比+11.37%；归母净利润20.01亿元，同比+261.92%。 ➢ 风险提示：市场需求不及预期、重大疫病风险、原材料价格波动风险。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 104,924.35 | 106,977.16 | 116,624.05 | 124,442.90 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.68% | 1.96% | 9.02% | 6.70% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 9,230.42 | 9 ...

提效节粮方面，《实施方案》提出加快推广精准饲料配方技术体系，重点围绕肉鸡、蛋鸡、肉牛、肉 羊、鱼、虾等养殖动物品种，构建基于净能体系和氨基酸平衡模式的动态营养需要模型。同时开展动物 精准饲养管理技术产品集成应用。研发基于多元化饲料配方结构的绿色高效饲料添加剂应用技术，针对 不同养殖条件开展饲料供给与营养需求精准适配的调控技术集成与推广。研发推广数智化饲喂决策和饲 料配方软件系统，推进智能化标准化养殖设施装备集成配套。 中国经济网5月9日讯(记者梁木)近日，农业农村部办公厅印发《养殖业节粮行动实施方案》(以下简称 《实施方案》)，明确提出统筹推进提效节粮、开源节粮、优化结构节粮三方面措施，力争到2030年， 标准化规模养殖方式的每公斤动物产品平均饲料消耗量比2023年减少0.2公斤以上，降幅达7%以上；非 粮饲料资源开发利用产能达1000万吨以上，优质饲草产量比2023年新增4000万吨以上；建成一批适度规 模、种养结合、生态循环、智慧管理的家庭农场或标准化养殖场；全国养殖业消耗的饲料中粮食用量占 比降至60%左右，其中，豆粕用量占比降至10%左右。 饲料粮消费在我国粮食总消费中占比较大，饲料成本约占养殖成本7 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-05-09 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2530至2590区间震荡。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡收涨，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期回归震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-63，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.45万吨，上周0.97万吨，周环比增加49.48%，去年同期2.6万吨，同比 减少44.23% ...

本报告导读： 公司生猪养殖业务持续精进，养殖成本不断下降。屠宰业务产能利用率显著提升，盈利能力改善。持续 推进高质量发展。 投资要点： 投资建议：维持"增持"评级，目标价50.8 元。预测 2025-2027 年公司 EPS 分别为2.54/4.81/6.77 元。公司 生猪出栏量持续增长，屠宰业务盈利能力改善。对比可比公司，我们认为牧原股份稳居行业龙头地位， 兼具成长与价值属性，给予公司2025 年20x 估值，对应目标价50.8 元。 公司发布25 年一季报：公司25Q1 实现营收360.6 亿元，同比+37.26%；归母净利润为44.9 亿元，同比扭 亏；经营活动产生的现金流量净额为75.1 亿元，同比+48.1%。 生猪养殖业务持续精进。公司25Q1 实现生猪出栏2265.8 万头（同比+41.5%），其中商品猪/仔猪/种猪 分别出栏1839.5/414.9/11.3 万头。 公司3 月生猪养殖完全成本已降至12.5 元/kg，持续优化。我们认为，随着公司持续发力健康管理、种 猪育种等，公司各项生产指标均仍将提升；同时公司通过推广优秀场线管理经验，有望不断改善相对落 后场线的成绩，从而进一步降低养殖成 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the significant increase in pig sales and revenue for Tangrenshen Group in April 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, attributed to the "company + farmer" breeding model [2][3] - In April 2025, the company sold 435,200 pigs, a 37.98% increase year-on-year and a 7.48% increase month-on-month, with total sales revenue reaching 762.19 million yuan, up 57.77% year-on-year and 10.98% month-on-month [2] - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, the company sold 1,697,600 pigs, a 34.47% increase year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 2,944.79 million yuan, reflecting a 62.15% year-on-year increase [2] Group 2 - The primary reason for the growth in pig sales is the increased output from the "company + farmer" breeding model [3] - The announcement specifies that the disclosed data only pertains to the company's pig farming business and does not include information on feed and meat products [4] - The company emphasizes that fluctuations in pig market prices represent a systemic risk that could significantly impact operational performance [4]

Core Insights - The ocean economy is becoming a key driver for domestic demand growth, supported by policy incentives and technological innovations [1] - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the emergence of new consumption scenarios in the ocean economy, particularly in marine fisheries, which play a crucial role in ensuring food security [1] Economic Performance - In 2023, China's ocean economy showed a strong recovery, with a total ocean production value of 99,097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, surpassing the national economic growth rate by 0.8 percentage points [2] - The ocean economy accounted for 7.9% of the national GDP, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall economic growth [2] - The marine manufacturing sector's added value reached 29,861 billion yuan, growing by 7.0%, while the marine service sector's added value was 58,968 billion yuan, nearly 60% of the total [2] Fisheries and Food Security - Marine fisheries are a vital pillar of China's fishery economy, with a total fishery output value of 1.59 trillion yuan in 2023, up 4.5% year-on-year [4] - Marine aquaculture accounted for 65.2% of the total output value, indicating significant potential for growth compared to freshwater aquaculture [4] - The report emphasizes the development potential of deep-sea aquaculture, with over 100,000 square kilometers of usable area available [4] Technological Advancements - The introduction of modern aquaculture technologies, such as the world's first 100,000-ton aquaculture vessel, has significantly enhanced the supply capacity of high-quality seafood [5] - Breakthroughs in core species breeding have led to growth rates exceeding 20% for new varieties, although the industry still faces challenges with species diversity [5] Processing and Logistics - The processing rate of seafood products is increasing, with facilities like the 300,000-ton central cold storage in Zhanjiang enhancing product value by over three times [6] - The establishment of a comprehensive cold chain logistics system is facilitating temperature-controlled processes from aquaculture to end consumers [6]

Core Insights - The government of Yulin City has invested a total of 250 million yuan over the past five years to support standardized sheep farming, benefiting over 60,000 sheep farmers [1][2] - In 2024, Yulin's sheep population is projected to reach 9.75 million, with meat production at 68,000 tons and cashmere production at 3,058.84 tons, contributing to a primary industry output value of 6.861 billion yuan [1] - The sheep industry has become a core pillar of rural revitalization in Yulin, with over 122,000 farming households involved, and average disposable income for sheep farmers exceeding 20,000 yuan, accounting for over 70% of household net income [2] Investment and Infrastructure - The investment of 50 million yuan in the previous year covered 12 key towns, over 250 administrative villages, and benefited more than 10,000 sheep farmers [1] - Yulin has established three provincial-level sheep breeding farms and 36 municipal-level breeding farms, capable of providing over 20,000 high-quality breeding sheep annually [1] Environmental and Ecological Impact - The sheep farming initiative has transformed mountain closure and grazing bans into a driving force for industrial upgrading, with sheep population increasing from 4.368 million in 2002 to 9.752 million in 2024 [2] - The comprehensive utilization rate of livestock manure has reached 88.4%, and the facility matching rate for large-scale farms is 98.6%, achieving resource recycling [2]