关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 7月14日，海关公布6月进出口数据，出口（美元计价）同比5.8%、预期3.6%、前值4.8%；进口 （美元计价）同比1.1%、预期-0.6%、前值-3.4%。 核心观点：对新兴国家"抢出口"接近结束，对美国"抢出口"开始发酵 然而，此前通过新兴国家"抢出口"的现象仍继续退坡。 从四大类出口商品来看，此前主要面向新兴经济 体出口的中游制造类商品（-0.6pct至5.7%）于本月继续下滑。尽管肥料（+63.7pct至59.3%）的出口回升 明显，但其规模较小；规模较大的集成电路（-9.2pct至24.2%）等增速明显回落，进一步验证了我国对新 兴国家的"抢出口"现象持续退坡。 展望未来，7月我国出口有望因对美"抢出口"延续而维持韧性，但"抢出口"或在8月结束，届时出口将面 临需求透支带来的负面影响。 新兴国家对等关税暂停期将结束，7 月"抢转口"必要性下降。但对美"抢出 口"有望接续，两个指标可做参考：一是通常领先出口一个月的加工贸易进口同比在6 月继续回升；二是 义乌小商品价格仍维持高位。 常规跟踪：出口、进口均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, exports more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US negotiation easing. In the short term, the export resilience remains and the July reading may be decent. In the medium term, there is high uncertainty in tariff policies after mid - August, and the overall exports in the second half of the year may face a slowdown risk. The bond market may focus more on domestic policy responses, and the disturbance of the "broad credit" sentiment in the third quarter may increase[6][33] - In June, the import growth rate turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and price improvement. However, the import volume of upstream energy products weakened and the growth rate of downstream automobile imports slowed down, indicating that domestic demand still needs policy support. The data verification in the third quarter is crucial, and policies may be strengthened to stabilize demand[6][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Export: The Logic of "Rushing to Export" Strengthens, and Transit Trade Cools Down - **Overall Situation**: In June, the export growth rate was +5.8%, 1 percentage point higher than that in May. The export in June more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation easing in mid - May. The "rushing to export" logic continued to support export resilience, and the appreciation of the RMB also boosted the export reading[5][9][18] - **By Commodity Type** - **Labor - Intensive Consumer Goods**: The year - on - year decline of exports of four types of non - durable consumer goods (clothing, footwear, luggage, and toys) narrowed to around 0%, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2%. Toys performed strongly, possibly reflecting the pre - release of the peak export season for Christmas supplies[2][20] - **Intermediate Goods for Production**: The combined year - on - year growth of five types of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +12.2%, driving export growth by 1.4 percentage points. In the short term, intermediate goods exports are expected to maintain high growth[2][21] - **Durable Consumer Goods**: The combined drag of mobile phones and laptops on exports was about 0.4 percentage points, an improvement from May. The contribution of automobile exports increased for three consecutive months, driving June's export growth by 0.5 percentage points[2][24] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In June, the year - on - year decline of exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU and Japan increased by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively. The weight of exports to the US rebounded to 11.7%, higher than that in April and May but still lower than the level in the first quarter of this year[3][28] - **ASEAN**: The proportion of exports to ASEAN declined to 17.9% in June, the lowest since March this year, as direct exports crowded out transit trade demand[3][28] - **Outlook**: In early August, the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period for multiple parties by the US will end. It is expected that the "rushing to export" in July will continue to be released at an accelerated pace, and the year - on - year export reading may not be weak. Leading indicators suggest that the export growth rate in July may further increase[5][12][33] 3.2 Import: Price Recovery, Low - Base Effect, and the Year - on - Year Growth of Imports Turns Positive - **Overall Situation**: In June, the import amount increased by 1.1% year - on - year, turning positive for the first time since December last year, mainly due to the low - base effect and the improvement of bulk commodity spot prices. However, the month - on - month import decreased by 1.2%, weaker than the seasonal average[4][34] - **By Commodity Type** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The year - on - year import of five types of upstream bulk commodities decreased by 11.4%, dragging down the import by 3.1 percentage points. The weakening of import volume may be the main drag[35] - **Intermediate Goods**: The combined year - on - year growth of four types of intermediate goods was +8.6%, 4.7 percentage points better than that in May, driving the year - on - year import growth by about 1.9 percentage points[35] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The combined year - on - year import of three types of consumer goods decreased by 21.0%, and the drag on imports increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month[35]

Group 1 - China's export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In June, the total import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [1] - The complete industrial chain and continuous technological upgrades provide a strong foundation for China's export resilience amid challenging external environments [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2] - China's trade partnerships expanded, with over 190 countries and regions experiencing growth in imports and exports, and the number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased by 5 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Exports to emerging markets contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Africa increasing by 14.4% and to Central Asia by 13.8% in the first half of the year [3] - Despite a decline in export growth to the U.S., China's export resilience is supported by strong product competitiveness and market diversification [3] - Various international organizations have downgraded global trade growth forecasts for 2025, but China has maintained its own pace and rhythm in trade [3]

Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.6% and the previous value of 4.8%[3] - The significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. by 18.4 percentage points to -16.1% contributed to a total export increase of 1.3 percentage points[4] - The rebound in exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong regions contributed an additional 0.8 percentage points to overall export growth in June[4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Export Growth - The temporary suspension of tariffs since May has positively impacted export orders, with the SCFI index reflecting a significant rise in shipping rates[3] - The depreciation of the RMB against the Euro and the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts have supported resilient export performance to the EU[4] - Exports measured in RMB showed a stronger performance with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% in June, compared to the dollar-denominated figures[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The sustainability of external demand remains a critical variable, with concerns about the U.S. demand's capacity for further growth[5] - High-frequency indicators suggest a decline in export momentum, with noticeable drops in port cargo volumes and container shipping rates to the U.S. in early July[5] - Risks include potential policy changes, unexpected shifts in domestic economic conditions, and unforeseen fluctuations in export dynamics[7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 800,000 tons. In July, the top - dressing demand will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On July 11, UR01 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), UR05 was 1,738 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), and UR09 was 1,773 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan or - 0.23% from July 10). [1] - **Spot Prices**: Among domestic small - particle urea spot prices, the price in Hebei increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 1,810 yuan/ton on July 11, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 122 yuan/ton on July 11, down 1 yuan from July 10. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively on July 11. [1] - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 11. [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,776 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,787 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,767 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,773 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,776 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 197,786 lots. [1] Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to the support of top - dressing demand in July. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented. [1]

2025.07. 14 本文字数：3217，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 面对复杂严峻的国际形势，中国外贸保持较强韧性。 最新公布的海关数据显示，2025年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民币，同比增长 2.9%。其中，出口增长7.2%，进口增长2.3%。 和前5个月数据相比，出口增速持平，进口增速转负为正，也拉动进出口增速提高了0.4个百分点。 这是在前5个月增速较前4个月加快0.1个百分点的基础上持续提升。 6月三项指标全部正增长，对美回升 月份进出口值从5月份不到3000亿元，回升到超过3500亿元，同比降幅也明显收窄。今年上半年， 我国对美国进出口同比下降9.3%。其中，出口下降9.9%，进口下降7.7%。 中泰证券研究所首席分析师杨畅分析称，按美元计，6月出口同比增长5.8%，较上月同比增长的 4.8%提高1.0个百分点。从绝对金额来看，6月较上月也实现环比增长，尽管面临上年基数走高的挑 战，仍然拉动上半年同比增速上行。其中，6月对美出口降幅收窄18.4个百分点，绝对金额约381.7 亿美元，较上月回升了近百亿美元；对美出口金额占出口总额的比重从上个月的9.1%回升至 1 ...

7月14日周一，海关总署公布的数据显示，按人民币计，6月份，中国进口同比增长2.3%，为今年2月以来首次增长。6月出口同比增长5.2%，规模是历史上 月度进出口的第二高位。 在大宗商品出口中，中国6月稀土出口继续攀升，创下2009年以来最高水平。另外，二季度钢铁出口创纪录高位，强劲的钢铁出口帮助支撑了铁矿石进口，6 月铁矿石进口量升至今年最高水平的近1.06亿吨。 在其他大宗商品进口中，6月原油进口也达到近5000万吨的三个月高点，未锻造铜进口量也处于三个月高位，天然气进口量攀升至1月以来的最高水平，大豆 进口量保持在1200万吨以上的高位。煤炭进口量暴跌至3300万吨，为2023年2月以来的最低水平。 稀土出口继续攀升、钢铁出口创纪录增长 继5月稀土出口大增之后，6月稀土出口量继续攀升至7742.2吨，环比增长32.4%，同比增长60%。 值得注意的是，这涵盖矿物或金属形式的出口。6月所有稀土产品出口数据将于周五公布，包括磁铁在内的分项数据将于周日公布。 另外，今年二季度，全球最大钢铁生产国的出口量超出市场预期。 据统计数据显示，中国在4月至6月期间，用于建筑、汽车和家电的成品钢出口量达到3070万吨，同比 ...

Regulatory Approval - Market regulators approved Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys' equity with restrictive conditions [1] Export Restrictions - The US government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China for Siemens AG [1] - Siemens has restored full access to its software and technologies for Chinese customers [1] EDA Software Vendors - Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys have not yet responded to the lifting of export restrictions [1]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant increase in antimony oxide imports to the U.S. from Thailand and Mexico, which lack relevant industrial chains, indicating potential circumvention of export restrictions on Chinese rare earth resources [3][6]. - From December 2023 to April 2024, the U.S. imported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico, surpassing the total imports from the previous three years [3]. - The imports from Thailand and Mexico have surged despite these countries not being in the top ten overseas customers for Chinese antimony exports in 2023, highlighting a shift in trade patterns [3][6]. Group 2 - Industry experts emphasize the critical role of minerals like antimony and gallium in global supply chains, particularly in telecommunications and military technologies, with the U.S. fifth-generation fighter jet industry heavily reliant on gallium imports [7]. - Despite a year-long export ban on rare earths from China, there are still instances of smuggling and third-party exports to the U.S., indicating gaps in enforcement [7][12]. - Recommendations include implementing a blockchain-based electronic ID for rare earth shipments to enhance traceability and prevent misreporting and smuggling [9][12]. Group 3 - To improve export control measures, it is suggested that penalties for smuggling be increased, categorizing it as a "national security crime" and pursuing criminal liability for organizers [12]. - Importers should be required to provide real user information and undergo random inspections to ensure compliance with declared purposes [9][12]. - Countries like Thailand and Mexico, which have seen abnormal increases in imports, should be closely monitored, and their smelting capacity should be verified [9][12].

面对单边主义、保护主义，中国不断扩大"朋友圈"，也实现了"变量可控"。 面对复杂严峻的国际形势，中国外贸保持较强韧性。 最新公布的海关数据显示，2025年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民币，同比增长2.9%。 其中，出口增长7.2%，进口增长2.3%。 和前5个月数据相比，出口增速持平，进口增速转负为正，也拉动进出口增速提高了0.4个百分点。这是 在前5个月增速较前4个月加快0.1个百分点的基础上持续提升。 6月三项指标全部正增长，对美回升 在7月14日国新办举行的新闻发布会上，海关总署副署长王令浚用"总量增长、质量提升、变量可控"来 总结上半年的外贸表现。 在总量上，我国进出口已经连续9个季度运行在10万亿元以上，今年上半年进出口比去年上半年增加了 6000多亿元。进入6月份，进出口、出口、进口三项指标同比全部实现正增长，而且增速都在回升。 具体而言，6月份的进出口规模3.85万亿元，增长5.2%，规模是历史上月度进出口的第二高位。其中， 出口2.34万亿元，增长7.2%，增长较快的包括电子元件、船舶等；进口1.51万亿元，增长2.3%，增长较 快的有自动数据处理设备的零附件、干鲜瓜果等。 面 ...