美国总统特朗普在1月的就职演讲中表示"美军的成功不在于参战"，并将乌克兰及加沙地区的 和平斡旋作为外交的重点。他在第一次任期内，还减少了驻伊拉克和阿富汗的美军人数。拒 绝"无休止战争"也是特朗普的一个卖点。 河浪武史："我们可以在几分钟内摧毁其他目标。伊朗将面临比过去八天更悲惨的局面"，特 朗普在1月的就职演讲中表示"美军的成功不在于参战"，但却在短短八天内发生了转变…… 河浪武史： 美国总统特朗普自己踏入了他自己极为厌恶的"无休止战争"。掌握了伊朗的制空 权，决定攻击核设施，但实际上是被希望将美国卷入中东事务的以色列巧妙地拖入了战争 中。 "我们可以在几分钟内摧毁其他目标。伊朗将面临比过去八天更悲惨的局面"，特朗普在6月21 日的演讲中提到了追加攻击的可能性。站在他身后的国务卿鲁比奥刚刚发表声明称"美国并未 参与对伊朗的攻击"。特朗普政府一直与中东冲突保持距离，却在短短八天内发生了转变。 以色列通过攻击各地代理势力等手段精心削弱了伊朗。通过将摧毁地下核设施这一最大功绩 赠予特朗普，最终将美国拖入。 若战争变成长期战争，存在四个风险。首先当然是中东战线的扩大。 另一个重大风险应该是没能彻底摧毁伊朗的核开发能力 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Belarusian President Lukashenko and US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg lasted six and a half hours, discussing issues related to Ukraine, the Middle East, and sanctions policies from the US and EU towards Belarus and Russia [1] - Kellogg's visit marks a significant shift in US policy towards Belarus, moving away from the previous administration's strategy of tightening economic sanctions to isolate and punish Belarus [3] - The visit indicates a potential diplomatic upgrade, recognizing Belarus as an important regional player in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the US may hope to leverage Lukashenko's influence to accelerate negotiations for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, given his previous role in the Minsk agreements [4] - Following Putin's comments on Ukraine's status, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced plans for new international measures against Russia, including increased funding for drone production and personnel adjustments within diplomatic missions [5] - Ukraine aims to secure agreements for technology transfers to boost its arms production, with discussions ongoing with several countries including Germany and the UK [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. has completed attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Iran retaliated with missile strikes against Israel, using 40 missiles, including the "Castle Destroyer" multi-warhead ballistic missile [1] - The Houthis in Yemen announced they would resume attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea due to U.S. actions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is driven by multiple considerations, including satisfying Israel's goals, forcing Iran to submit, and demonstrating U.S. global dominance [2] - If Iran does not submit, the conflict may escalate into a larger military confrontation, with Iran targeting U.S. personnel and facilities in the region [2] - Should Iran's regime capitulate, it could lead to regime change, a ceasefire, and a restructuring of Middle Eastern security dynamics [2] Group 3 - The U.S. shifted to military action against Iran due to ineffective pressure tactics and the need to address domestic political issues [3] - This military action risks damaging U.S. international credibility and could lead to increased threats to U.S. military bases and interests abroad [3] - The attack may cause a spike in international energy prices, impacting U.S. economic growth and exacerbating domestic political divisions [3] Group 4 - Iran's response to the U.S. attack is expected to result in long-term military confrontations and a potential increase in its nuclear capabilities [4] - The instability in global energy supply chains is anticipated, particularly concerning the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [5][6] - Closing the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global energy crisis, significantly affecting oil prices and international economic stability [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights the investment principles of Paul Singer, a legendary investor known for achieving an annualized return of 14% over 46 years and growing his assets from $1.3 million to $72 billion [2] - Singer's investment philosophy emphasizes capital protection, innovative strategies, and deep research as key components of successful investing [3][4] Group 2 - Singer's principle of capital protection aligns with modern portfolio theory, focusing on risk control rather than merely chasing high returns [3] - The use of convertible bond arbitrage showcases Singer's ability to exploit market inefficiencies and generate non-correlated returns [4] Group 3 - The establishment of information advantages through in-depth research challenges the efficient market hypothesis, revealing unpriced information in the market [4] - Singer's proactive engagement in corporate governance exemplifies the value reconstruction potential of activist investing [5] Group 4 - Legal acumen plays a crucial role in Singer's investment strategy, as demonstrated in the Argentine bond case, where he effectively navigated complex legal frameworks to maximize investor benefits [6] - Understanding the lifecycle of companies allows Singer to identify critical turning points, enabling investors to avoid risks and seize opportunities [6] Group 5 - Singer's long-term investment philosophy is rooted in the power of compounding, advocating for holding quality assets to achieve exponential wealth growth [7] - The emphasis on interdisciplinary knowledge underscores the importance of a broad understanding of human behavior, society, and economic principles in investment decision-making [7] Group 6 - The article concludes with a warning about systemic risks in the current market environment, highlighting concerns over excessive leverage, negative interest rates, and emerging market bubbles [7]

欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：谈判桌是解决危机的唯一场所。 ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-06-22 能源危机担忧为时尚早，氧化铝现货价格快速下滑 重要数据 铝 截至2025/6/20当周，伦铝价增加1.79%至2561.5美元/吨，沪铝主力较此前一周增加1.06%至20465元/吨。 LME铝现 货升贴水(0-3)由上周的-0.42 美元/吨变动至11.16 美元/吨。 供应：截止6月20日当周，电解铝周度运行产能基本保持平稳，后期将维持平稳小增的状态。电解铝建成产能4520 万吨，运行产能4415万吨，周度环比增加1万吨，开工率97.7%。 需求：根据SMM数据显示，国内铝下游铝型材龙头企业开工率较上周下跌-1.5%至52.5%，铝板带箔开工率较上周 下跌-1.06%至69.36%，铝板带箔产量较上周下跌-0.57万吨至37.247万吨，铝线缆平均开工率较上周持平于63.2%。 库存：截至2025-06-19，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存44.9万吨，比上周减少-1.1万吨，铝棒库存13.45万吨，比 上周增加0.7万吨，国内去库表现较为顺畅。截止2025/6/20，LME铝库存34.29万吨，较上周同期减少-1.28万吨。 利润：截至2025-06-13 ...

伊拉克政府：我们谴责针对伊朗核设施的行为，各方 应立即降级并紧急开辟外交渠道以控制局势并化 解危机。 ...

跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 订阅红海危机动态 +订阅 胡塞武装：与美国达成停火协议是在（其）与伊朗"开战"之前，我们对美国袭击伊朗的回应"只是时间 问题"。 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The core viewpoint is that any U.S. military intervention in Iran is expected to be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices below $4 per gallon [1] - WTI crude oil futures have risen approximately 10% over the past week, while Brent crude has increased by 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79.04 [3] Group 2: Currency and Market Trends - Hartnett warns that the most painful trade this summer will be going long on the U.S. dollar, as the market is predominantly short on the dollar [5] - European and Asian markets are showing signs of structural bull markets, with European stocks up 20% and Chinese stocks up 15% in dollar terms this year, compared to only a 2% increase in the U.S. [7] Group 3: Investment Allocation Insights - High-net-worth investors are significantly under-allocated in gold, with only 0.4% of their assets in this asset class, despite gold's strong performance [11] - Recent data shows that gold experienced its largest inflow in eight weeks, totaling $2.8 billion, with an annualized inflow reaching a record $80 billion [13] Group 4: U.S. Debt and Fiscal Policy - Military intervention in Iran is likely to reinforce the consensus of a long-term bear market for U.S. Treasuries, as Trump has limited options to reduce government spending [9] - The discussion around interest rate cuts by Powell is linked to the fiscal constraints faced by the Trump administration [10]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around consumers being required to destroy products to receive refunds, highlighting a significant trust crisis in the online shopping environment [2][3] - The "only refund" policy, initially intended to eliminate low-quality products, has been misused by some consumers, leading to a detrimental impact on merchants [3][4] - Major platforms have begun to cancel or optimize the "only refund" policy since April, but it still exists in a modified form where merchants and consumers negotiate [3][4] Group 2 - The platforms hold the responsibility to create more refined rules and services regarding the "only refund" policy, rather than evading accountability [4] - Legal frameworks dictate that merchants cannot require product destruction as a condition for refunds, indicating a need for better enforcement of consumer rights [4] - The initial intent of the "only refund" policy was positive, but execution has faltered, necessitating ongoing improvements in service and rule alignment by platforms [4]