美联储主席鲍威尔：我们预计关税引发的通胀压力将会进一步显现。不知道有多少成本会转嫁给消费 者。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiaao Environmental Protection has been investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for suspected violations of information disclosure, marking the second investigation in five years [1][9]. Company Overview - Jiaao Environmental Protection, established in 2003 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016, focuses on the research, production, and sales of bio-based plasticizers and biomass energy [3]. - The company has been recognized as one of the top ten enterprises in the plasticizer industry in China and has a biodiesel production capacity of 300,000 tons annually through its subsidiaries [3]. History of Violations - In March 2020, Jiaao Environmental Protection corrected multiple financial reports from 2017 to 2019 due to inconsistencies caused by staff errors [5]. - In December 2020, the CSRC initiated an investigation for information disclosure violations, revealing that the company had inflated its 2019 revenue by approximately 179 million yuan, which accounted for 14.24% of the reported revenue [7]. - The company faced administrative penalties in May 2021, including a fine of 1 million yuan for the company and its executives [7][8]. Recent Developments - The latest investigation by the CSRC is related to inaccuracies in annual report disclosures, with the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau previously issuing a warning regarding unreported construction projects [9]. - The company has made retrospective adjustments to its financial statements, resulting in increased losses for 2022 and 2023 [10][11]. Financial Performance - Jiaao Environmental Protection reported revenues of 3.211 billion yuan, 2.666 billion yuan, and 1.274 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net losses of 46.89 million yuan, 7.54 million yuan, and 367 million yuan [11]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the EU's anti-dumping policies affecting biodiesel exports, leading to a 76.64% decrease in biomass energy revenue [12]. Debt Situation - As of the first quarter of 2025, the company's debt ratio reached 80.45%, with cash reserves of only 230 million yuan and short-term borrowings of 1.405 billion yuan [13]. - The company has struggled with liquidity issues since its IPO in 2016, having attempted five capital increase plans, with the latest plan aiming to raise up to 367 million yuan for debt repayment and working capital [14][15]. Shareholding and Control - The actual controller, Shen Jian, holds a 37.38% stake in the company, which is expected to increase to 51.23% following the completion of the latest capital increase [15]. - Shen Jian has pledged shares to secure personal investments and support the company's operations, with ongoing efforts to reduce the pledge ratio through asset disposals and bank loans [15].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to prolonged rebate settlement periods and price inversion issues, prompting calls from dealers for manufacturers to optimize rebate policies and shorten payment timelines [1][4][8]. Group 1: Dealer Challenges - Approximately 84.4% of automotive dealers reported experiencing price inversion, with 60.4% facing a price inversion exceeding 15% [2]. - A survey of 42 automotive brands indicated that around 80% of best-selling models are affected by price inversion, with the inversion amount typically exceeding 20% [2]. - The automotive dealers are under severe financial pressure due to long rebate settlement periods, often exceeding 90 to 180 days, leading to cash flow crises [3][4]. Group 2: Rebate Policy Initiatives - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber has called for manufacturers to set clear rebate policies and reduce the rebate payment period to no more than 30 days [1][4]. - The Henan Province Automotive Industry Chamber has proposed a 60-day settlement period for dealer rebates to alleviate operational funding pressures [4][8]. - A survey revealed that 17 brands have a fixed rebate period of no more than 30 days, while others extend up to 180 days [6]. Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - BYD has initiated a rebate program for dealers, offering a reward of 666 yuan per vehicle, amounting to over 11.7 billion yuan based on recent sales data [7]. - Several manufacturers, including GAC Group and BMW, have committed to reducing rebate payment periods to 60 days, reflecting a growing recognition of the need for timely financial support for dealers [5][6]. - The industry is moving towards a collaborative ecosystem where manufacturers and dealers work together to mitigate risks and enhance long-term benefits [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that tariffs could lead to increased prices and exert pressure on the economy [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are likely to contribute to inflationary pressures within the economy [1] - The economic impact of tariffs may result in broader financial strain on consumers and businesses [1] - Powell's comments suggest a cautious approach to trade policies and their implications for economic stability [1]

以下文章来源于混沌天成研究 ，作者能化组 混沌天成研究 . 混沌天成研究院官方公众号。基于混沌天成的地方触角和国际化架构，我们致力于打造一家草根信息与高科技结合，中国国情 和国际视野兼备的商品期货和全球宏观研究院。 来源 | 混沌天成研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 观点概述 我们认为地缘冲突给能化商品提供了新一轮做空的机会，考虑到各方的诉求和压力，当前的冲突不大可能演变 成长期战争，封锁霍尔木兹海峡也不大可能发生，短期的大涨恐慌大于实质，可以在做空同时买入虚值看涨期 权等工具对冲掉尾部风险。在伊朗报复可控的情况下，预计冲突将大概率走向降温。 中国的新能源转型使国内的原油和煤炭消费都到了拐点，而全球供应反而在放松，因此煤炭和原油面临周期下 行压力，且还在加强，短期或有旺季补库支撑，但下半年下行压力或将进一步加大。 债务和关税将持续伤害全球需求，下半年或显现恶果。特朗普试图重塑美国增长方式的行动将从多方面给全球 经济施加下行压力，考虑到当前美国的平均关税处于过去70多年的高位，而主要经济体宏观杠杆率远超2008 金融危机水平，中长期债券利率的上升限制了各经济体在全球贸易下行压力下刺激内需的空间。提供 ...

金十数据6月24日讯，英国工业联合会周二表示，英国制造业本月订单萎缩幅度为1月以来最大，销售价 格预期降温。英国6月CBI工业订单差值从5月份的-30降至-33。而过去3个月的产出指标有所改善，但仍 处于收缩区间。英国工业联合会首席经济学家Ben Jones表示："英国制造业正面临巨大压力，要应对能 源成本高企、劳动力成本上升、普遍存在的技能短缺，以及动荡的全球经济环境。"英国工业联合会还 表示，制造商对价格上涨的净预期降至2月份以来的最低水平。 英国工业联合会：6月份英国工厂的订单降幅更大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade policies are expected to exert downward pressure on inflation in the UK [1] Group 2 - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, highlights the potential impact of trade policies on the UK economy [1]

Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The Euro is consolidating near the weekly high above 1.1600 against the US Dollar [1] - The British Pound is stabilizing around 1.3600 amid the latest rally [1] - The Japanese Yen continues its strong rebound from the lowest point since May 13, supported by ongoing buying pressure [1] - The Australian Dollar is recovering towards 0.6500 due to improved global risk sentiment [1] - The New Zealand Dollar has risen over 1%, rebounding approximately 2.5% from Monday's low [1] - The US Dollar is weakening against the Canadian Dollar [1] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [2] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee have indicated support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with services and composite PMIs also hitting 3-month highs [3] - France's June manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [3] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous estimate of 0.1% contraction [3] - ECB officials have suggested potential rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [3] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [4] - Japanese officials support a revised bond issuance plan [5] - The Prime Minister aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [5] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD maintains strong momentum, having broken the significant resistance level at 1.3520, with targets at 1.3600 and 1.3655 [6] - The USD/JPY has broken below the 100-hour moving average support, testing the critical support range of 145.40-145.00 [6] - The US Dollar Index remains below key moving averages, indicating a bearish trend, but a short-term breakout above the 50-day moving average could trigger a short-covering rally [6]

机构依然预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 据新华社，美国东部时间6月23日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成一致，这场为期12天的冲突 即将结束。 这一出人意料的消息引爆全球金融市场，此前因避险需求而大涨的美元被抛售，油价大跌。截至北京时间24日16:30左右，美元指数报98.13，美元/人民币报 7.1778，美元/离岸人民币报7.1760，WTI油价报66.31美元/桶。 高盛表示，由于供给大于需求，仍维持年末对布伦特油价60美元以下的预测。同时，接受记者采访的外资行交易员和分析师普遍认为，如果中东冲突出现真 正的缓和甚至终结迹象，特朗普可能会将注意力重新转向他眼中的"敌人"——美联储主席鲍威尔，打压美元的结构性因素仍然存在。从中期来看，机构依然 预期美元将走软，部分投行已将未来12个月的美元/人民币预测调整至7以下。 WTI原油期货 ↓ 66.37 -2.14 (-3.12%) d=d=0+0+0+0+0+0 a 4 * 0 = 0 # + = T 4+4 + 80= 2 + III __ | 18 "25 早前 ...

证券之星陆雯燕 目前，瀚蓝环境应收账款问题依旧突出，截至一季度末的应收账款体量已远超同期营收。公司今年计划 收回存量应收账款不少于20亿元，回款压力不小。此外，瀚蓝环境的债务压力也难以忽视，截至一季度 末的短期债务约59亿元，但同期账面货币资金却不足20亿元。今年6月刚完成的粤丰环保电力有限公司 (下称"粤丰环保")私有化交易，更涉及61亿元并购贷款。 去年营收未达标 资料显示，瀚蓝环境以供水业务起家，上市以来不断通过并购扩张等方式拓展业务版图，目前形成了 以"固废处理为拓展核心、水务能源协同发展"的"一体两翼"业务发展模式。 2024年，瀚蓝环境实现营收118.86亿元，同比下滑5.22%；实现归母净利润16.64亿元，同比增长 16.39%。今年一季度，瀚蓝环境延续降收增利，实现营业收入26.01亿元，同比下降4.24%；对应归母净 利润4.2亿元，同比增长10.26%。 一季度降收增利主要是PPP工程收入规模下降0.5亿元、南海区环卫业务优化收入下降1.04亿元等。剔除 上述因素影响，2025年一季度其他营业收入增加约3900万元。 拉长时间看，瀚蓝环境的营业收入已经连续两个年度"退坡"。2023年，瀚 ...