新华财经北京6月24日电 美联储美联储主席鲍威尔将于今日北京时间22:00在众议院金融服务委员会发 表证词。鉴于白宫方面持续施加的大幅降息政治压力，以及关税和地缘政治事件引发的不确定性再次升 温，市场交易员正密切关注美联储政策立场的动向。 欧元区经济数据呈现微弱改善。德国6月IFO商业景气指数升至88.4，商业预期指数跃升至90.7，数据对 汇价影响有限。欧元区PMI显示制造业仍处收缩区间，服务业勉强站上荣枯线，经济复苏动能不足。 英镑 美国银行外汇策略师表示，英镑在经历了又一个疲软的6月表现后，应该会恢复对欧元的上涨。英镑在 近年来的6月通常都会对欧元下跌。仅从季节性表现来看，欧元对英镑在7月及以后的今年剩余时间里将 表现不佳。 图为：截至北京时间19:12 主要货币对不同时间周期波动对比来源：新华财经 美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部的分歧愈发明显，特朗普任命的理事米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）和克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）均表态支持最早在7月份实施宽松政策。 这一立场与鲍威尔近期所传达的"保持耐心"信号相悖，暗示委员会内部不和正在加剧。安联（Allian ...

Core Insights - The "618 Home Decoration Carnival and the Third Furniture Factory Direct Purchase Fair" held at Yifeng International Times Square successfully attracted over 30,000 visitors, marking it as a significant consumer event in the region and injecting strong momentum into the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Visitor and Sales Growth - The event saw a total visitor count exceeding 30,000, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% [3]. - The participation of over 70 domestic and international brands in the home decoration industry contributed to an overall sales growth of nearly 10% compared to the previous year [3]. Group 2: Direct Supply and Consumer Benefits - The core attraction of the event was the "Direct Purchase from Manufacturers" model, which included significant giveaways such as "500 luxury gifts for orders" and "200,000 shopping cards for joint orders" [5]. - The total value of subsidies and gifts distributed during the event reached several hundred thousand yuan, aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and facilitating home decoration purchases [5]. Group 3: Interactive Engagement and Prizes - The "Consumer Blind Box" segment was particularly popular, generating excitement among attendees [7]. - A highlight of the event was the public drawing for a "10,000 yuan shopping exemption prize," which was conducted under fair supervision, with multiple lucky consumers winning [7]. Group 4: Multi-Industry Collaboration - Yifeng Square, with a total area of 120,000 square meters, has established a commercial ecosystem that integrates home decoration materials, tea culture, food, and antiques, creating a "one-stop" shopping experience with over 700 merchants [10]. Group 5: Future Development and Quality Growth - By 2025, the mall plans to enhance operations by integrating online live streaming with offline experiences, aiming to host over 30 promotional events and collaborate with community and cross-industry resources [11]. - The mall is actively implementing national policies to promote consumption, including "old-for-new" subsidy programs for home appliances and furniture, with hundreds of thousands of yuan allocated for these initiatives [11]. Group 6: Commitment to Integrity and Brand Development - The mall aims to optimize the "Integrity Business Demonstration Circle" and plans to introduce over 20 new city-first brands to enhance the consumer experience [14]. - The successful execution of this carnival demonstrates Yifeng's strong resource integration and operational capabilities, serving as a model for market recovery and contributing to regional economic growth [14].

Group 1 - The retail sales of home appliance products are expected to maintain double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025, reflecting a trend of consumption recovery and demand changes in the market [1][3] - Bosch Comfort Technology opened its first i-Hybrid Comfort System flagship store in Shanghai, symbolizing multinational companies increasing their investments in China [1] - The rapid development of the heat pump market is attributed to rising consumer spending levels and the guidance of national "dual carbon" policies, which provide subsidies and incentives for real estate developers using heat pumps and green energy solutions [1][2] Group 2 - There is a notable increase in high-end consumer groups in China, leading to the establishment of a comfort home experience center in Shanghai, which drives the upgrade of HVAC product consumption in the region [2] - The trend of consumption stratification in China is evident, with a growing share of designers in the interior decoration field, reflecting a more rational approach to high-end consumption where consumers are willing to pay for design services and environmentally friendly materials [2] - Despite a contraction in project volume due to the real estate downturn, Bosch Comfort Technology achieved double-digit retail growth last year and maintained this growth in the first five months of this year, with plans to add over 300 new stores [2][3] Group 3 - The offline store experience is crucial for home brands, especially in high-end consumption, as it enhances customer engagement and increases the likelihood of sales [3] - In the first five months of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, indicating a recovery in the domestic consumption market [3] - The effectiveness of the trade-in program is evident, with over 34 million consumers participating in the program from January to April this year, purchasing over 51 million units of 12 categories of home appliances, generating sales of 174.5 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry in China is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in export values despite a decline in import values in recent months [7][8]. Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, China's engineering machinery import and export trade amounted to $5.238 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with imports at $214 million (down 0.74%) and exports at $5.024 billion (up 8.51%) [1]. - In April 2025, the trade total was $5.377 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, with imports at $226 million (down 2.2%) and exports at $5.152 billion (up 12.7%) [2]. - For March 2025, the trade value was $5.167 billion, reflecting a 7.53% year-on-year growth, with imports at $255 million (down 5.85%) and exports at $4.912 billion (up 8.33%) [2]. - The cumulative trade from January to May 2025 reached $24.185 billion, an 8.49% increase year-on-year, with imports totaling $1.09 billion (down 0.86%) and exports at $23.095 billion (up 8.98%) [3]. - From January to April 2025, the trade value was $18.947 billion, an 8.51% increase year-on-year, with imports at $877 million (down 0.86%) and exports at $18.07 billion (up 9.01%) [4]. Export Performance - In April 2025, the export value was 36.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while the cumulative export from January to April was 129.738 billion yuan, up 10.3% [5]. - In March 2025, the export value was 35.231 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.51% year-on-year increase, with the first quarter's total exports at 92.787 billion yuan, up 8.99% [6]. - The export value for January 2025 was 34.001 billion yuan, a 16.8% increase year-on-year, while February saw a decline to 23.558 billion yuan, down 1.27% [6]. Market Dynamics - The engineering machinery industry is expected to see improved conditions, with a notable increase in demand and a positive outlook for the coming months [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is some expansion in UK business activity in June, the overall growth remains weak and the economic recovery faces multiple challenges [1][2] - The June manufacturing PMI in the UK is reported at 47.7, exceeding expectations of 46.6 and the previous value of 46.4, while the services PMI stands at 51.3, matching expectations and showing an increase from 50.9 [1] - The composite PMI for June is at 50.7, slightly above the expected 50.5 and up from 50.3 in the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in business conditions [1] Group 2 - Employment, new export business, and future output indices in the UK composite PMI have deteriorated, influenced by increased global economic and political uncertainties [2] - The new orders index has surpassed the growth threshold of 50 for the first time since November of the previous year, yet layoffs are accelerating due to rising employer social security contributions introduced by the UK Chancellor [2] - Business confidence remains low compared to the same period last year, with companies facing higher labor costs and lower demand, leading to continued job losses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's composite PMI fell to 50.8 in June from 52.2 in May, marking a five-month low and below analysts' expectations of 50.5, indicating a challenging economic environment [1][4]. Economic Performance - The services PMI dropped to 51.3 in June, the lowest level this year, down from 53.1 in May, reflecting a slowdown in new orders and business confidence [5]. - The manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.5, slightly improving from 46.1 in May, but still well below the 50 mark, indicating ongoing demand weakness [8]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's composite PMI fell to 49.8 in June from 52.4 in May, indicating significant economic challenges, with both services and manufacturing sectors showing weakness [9]. - France's economic performance deteriorated further, with a composite PMI of 45.7 in June, down from 48.9 in May, indicating deep recessions in both services and manufacturing sectors [10]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Eurozone economy may face greater pressure in the latter part of the year due to weak consumer confidence and inflation remaining above the ECB's 2% target [12]. - The ECB's recent rate cuts may limit further monetary easing, as inflation has recently dropped below the target, and the central bank is expected to pause further rate reductions [12].

Core Insights - Germany's business activity has shown signs of recovery in June, driven by a resurgence in the manufacturing sector, with new orders increasing at the highest rate in over three years [1] - Four German economic research institutes have revised their forecasts for 2025, now expecting economic growth after two consecutive years of contraction [1] - Despite the overall recovery, the service sector continues to experience a slowdown, although at a reduced pace compared to previous months [1]

Core Insights - The domestic cultural and tourism market in China is showing strong recovery momentum driven by policy support, increased consumer confidence, and technological innovation [1] - Tuniu's Q1 2025 net revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with core packaged travel product revenue growing by 19.3% [1][2] - Despite revenue growth, Tuniu reported a net loss of 5.4 million yuan in Q1 2025, a decline from a profit of 21.9 million yuan in the same period of 2024, raising concerns in the industry [4] Industry Overview - Domestic travel participation reached 1.794 billion trips in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector [1][7] - The domestic tourism market is characterized by a diverse supply of products, with significant growth in county-level tourism and a notable increase in travel spending [7][8] Company Strategy - Tuniu is shifting its strategy from a cautious cost-control approach to increased marketing investments to capture market share, reflecting optimism about future growth in the domestic tourism market [1][4] - The company is focusing on a new channel strategy combining online live streaming and offline stores, which aligns better with current market trends [6][5] - Tuniu's marketing expenses have increased, but the growth rate of its core packaged travel business revenue is outpacing marketing expenses, indicating improved operational efficiency [9] Financial Performance - Tuniu's marketing and sales expenses reached 43.2 million yuan in Q1 2025, accounting for 36.8% of revenue, which is a significant increase from the previous year [4] - The company expects Q2 2025 net revenue to be between 131 million to 136.8 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 12% to 17% [9]

金融研究 2025年6月23日 星期一 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 20 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.07%，报收 3359.9 点；深成指 下跌 0.47%，报收 10005.03 点；创业板指下跌 0.83%，报收 2009.89 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.53%， 报收 957.87 点。市场成交 10,917 亿元，较前日减少 1,892 亿元。行业板块方面，交通运输(+0.88%)， 食品饮料(+0.73%)，银行(+0.69%)涨幅居前；传媒(-1.91%)，计算机(-1.79%)，石油石化(-1.71%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,540/231/3,644。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-99、-125、-12、235 亿元，分别变动+97、+74、-56、-114 亿元。 风险提示：货币政策宽松超预期，经济复苏不及预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 64.79、51.11、42.24 与 36.92 点，基差年化收益 ...

宏观 股指 宏观：近期宏观环境呈现"弱现实与强预期"分化特征。从政策端看，中美经贸谈判释放缓 和信号，但关税谈判进展仍存不确定性，叠加中东地缘冲突升温，外部扰动因素对市场风险 偏好形成压制；国内经济数据方面，2025 年 Q2 企业盈利改善但增速仍低于政策利率水平， PPI 同比处于低位，显示"弱复苏"特征。 市场分析：两融余额占流通市值比例维持低位，中证 1000 当日成交额达 1808.57 亿元，资 金净流出 1.89 亿元，波动率 3.39%和换手率 1.89%，小盘股流动性分化。上证 50 持仓量环 比下降 1.2%，而中证 1000 持仓量逆势增长 3.2%，显示资金向中小盘流动。 参考观点：建议采取"区间震荡"策略，关注上证 50（2650-2700 元）与沪深 300（3800-3900 元）关键支撑位。当前市场处于资金观望阶段，增量资金入场不足制约上行空间，但企业盈 利改善与政策预期提供下行保护，投资者须保持仓位均衡，重点关注政策落地节奏与外部风 险演化。 原油 宏观与地缘：高度关注以伊冲突发展，是近期油价关键影响因素。特朗普暂缓对伊朗动武， 但威胁"两周内最终决策"，原油价格高位波动。 市 ...