Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline of the US dollar in the first half of 2025, highlighting its worst performance in decades, driven by various factors including geopolitical uncertainties and changing investor behaviors [2][4]. Group 1: Dollar Decline - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has dropped over 8% this year, marking the worst start to a year on record, while the ICE Dollar Index has seen a decline of approximately 9%, potentially the worst performance since 1986 [2]. - Richard Chambers from Goldman Sachs anticipates that the dollar's weakness will continue as foreign investors increase their currency hedging [4][5]. Group 2: Foreign Demand and Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the significant drop in the dollar index is largely due to uncertainties stemming from US policies, particularly those of President Trump, which have shaken investor confidence [6]. - Although there are no clear signs of a mass withdrawal from the US bond market by foreign investors, Chambers predicts a decrease in foreign demand, particularly as European investors may prefer to invest domestically [6][7]. Group 3: Currency Swap Indicators - A recent indicator in the foreign exchange market, the cross-currency basis swap, has shown a notable shift, signaling a decrease in demand for the dollar [8][11]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have observed that the willingness of investors to purchase dollar-denominated assets is declining, while interest in euro and yen-denominated assets is increasing [11][12].

Important News - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 81.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 18.6% [1] - The EU warns that if President Trump maintains tariffs on imports, it plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products [1] - Iran confirms that its nuclear facilities were "severely damaged" in a U.S. airstrike [1] Individual Stock News - TSMC's overseas subsidiary plans to issue new shares worth $10 billion to strengthen its foreign exchange hedging business [2] - OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed a high-level meeting with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella to discuss future strategic cooperation between the two tech giants [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a buy rating on Tesla with a target price of $410 [2] - Pony.ai has been included in the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index [2] - The Spanish Ministry of Health is investigating Novo Nordisk (NVO.N) for potential violations of prescription drug advertising laws regarding its popular weight loss drug Wegovy [2] - Ferrari is entering the sailing industry with the launch of a combustion-free racing yacht set to launch next year [2] - Best Buy is selling its home health technology division Current Health, which it acquired for $400 million in 2021, to Chris McGhee [2] - Boeing's "Mense incident" investigation reveals manufacturing process defects and regulatory failures [2]

瑞士财政部长：希望在7月9日之前就原则达成协议，美国承认瑞士没有操纵外汇。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC plans to issue $10 billion in new shares to strengthen its foreign exchange hedging operations in response to currency fluctuations, marking its largest initiative of this kind to date [1] Group 1: Company Actions - TSMC Global Ltd. will issue shares to mitigate foreign exchange volatility, representing the third such transaction since 2024 and the largest to date [1] - The issuance aims to provide TSMC Global with greater financial flexibility in managing exchange rate risks [1] Group 2: Market Context - The recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has raised concerns in Taiwan about the economy's over-reliance on exports [1] - In May, the New Taiwan Dollar experienced its largest single-day increase since the 1980s, prompting official calls to curb speculative activities [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - TSMC, as a major chip manufacturer for companies like Apple and Nvidia, faces challenges from the currency appreciation, which can reduce profits from overseas sales when converted back to local currency [4] - TSMC's CEO indicated that the company's operating profit margin has declined by several percentage points due to the local currency's appreciation [4]

印度央行：印度央行4月份在现货市场净卖出16.6亿美元外汇。 ...

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen over 8% year-to-date, while the ICE Dollar Index has seen a decline approaching 9%, marking the worst start in nearly 40 years [1] - Changes in interest rates are identified as the catalyst for the dollar's decline, with market expectations leaning towards a loosening cycle before 2026 despite the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining higher rates for longer [3] - The increase in foreign exchange hedging ratios indicates that the future trajectory of the dollar will rely more on fundamentals rather than mere capital flows [4] Group 2 - Investors are shifting from traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar to derivatives for currency hedging, which has led to additional selling pressure on the dollar during settlement [3] - The potential for the dollar to further decline to the 101-102 index range exists if core inflation continues to fall and the Federal Reserve shifts its stance [4] - The focus for investors should transition from directional bets on the dollar to managing volatility, as the primary variables influencing dollar fluctuations have shifted from unilateral interest rate differentials to multidimensional risk pricing [4]

新华社法兰克福6月25日电 综述｜欧元创近三年半新高 市场对美元信心动摇 欧元对美元汇率24日再次突破1比1.16关口，高点触及1比1.1641，创下2021年10月以来新高。近段 时间，在地区冲突频发、各国央行政策博弈等因素影响下，欧元展现出韧性，日益被市场视为美元的替 代资产。 新华社记者马悦然 美国总统特朗普于美国东部时间23日傍晚在社交媒体宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达成 一致。冲突的阶段性缓和促使资金从美元等传统避险资产涌出，欧元随之走强。同时，油价大幅下跌也 为欧元提供支撑。欧洲作为主要的石油和液化天然气进口方，能源成本降低直接利好其经济基本面。 近期市场对欧元区经济的信心有所回升，其中德国经济复苏迹象明显。6月，德国慕尼黑经济研究 所商业景气指数升至88.4，创近一年新高。慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特说："德国经济正在 缓慢恢复信心。" 货币政策方面，欧洲央行本月初将欧元区三大关键利率分别下调25个基点，欧洲央行行长拉加德暗 示，降息周期已接近尾声。与此形成对比的是，美联储主席鲍威尔24日出席国会听证会时表示，关于货 币政策调整，美联储暂时仍将采取观望态度，因为需要更好地判断关 ...

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate has decreased by 20 points, currently reported at 1.3614 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of foreign exchange options with large notional values are set to expire on June 25, 2023, which may impact market dynamics and require risk management considerations [1]. Group 1: Expiration Details - A total of 14 foreign exchange options with notional values exceeding 1 billion are set to expire [1]. - The expiration includes various currency pairs such as Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, Pound, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollar [1]. Group 2: Notional Values and Strike Prices - Notional values for various currency pairs include: - $824 million for strike prices between 143.45-143.50 [4] - $1.5 billion for strike prices between 143.90-144.00 [4] - $2.21 billion for strike prices at 144.50 [4] - $5.51 million for strike prices between 145.40-145.45 [5] - $20 billion for strike prices at 148.00 [5] - Additional notional values include: - €2.11 million for Euro/Yen at 167.00 [5] - £11 billion for Euro/Pound at 1.3400 [6] - $3.44 billion for Dollar/Canadian Dollar at 1.3700 [7] Group 3: Currency Pair Highlights - Key currency pairs involved in the expirations include: - Euro/Yen, Euro/Pound, Euro/Swiss Franc, and Dollar/Yen [9]. - The expirations may lead to increased volatility in these currency pairs as large positions are settled [1].

外汇黑平台收割韭菜的方式花样百出，最近听说了一个新玩法。萌新kk在群里义正言辞的告诫后来者，不要入黑平台CDG这个大坑。这个瓜的看点不是 嫩韭菜倒在老镰刀上，而是KK爆出的几张截图，看后让人惊呼"活久见" 这位小改改，边扔图边骂：什么茸诺私募，垃圾平台，我往里边充了2次钱，他们给开了7个MT4账户，没有一个能提现成功。 从她提供的图片上看，这的确是一个MT4账户页面，不过她做的平台服务器居然有中文名字"茸诺私募"。稍微在外汇行业混个几年的人都知道，监管层面 是不允许任何国内机构从事外汇保证金业务，一个非法经营罪就能让当事人好好喝上一壶。别说有真实地址的实体公司了，就是那些藏着偷偷摸摸的代理 们也经常在监管利刃的寒光下瑟瑟发抖。 汇市江湖，风云诡谲，险象丛生。这里不仅有资本巨鲸兴风作浪，亦有丛林猎人处处设伏。作为这场野蛮游戏中食物链底层的投资人，无时不刻不面临着 来自四面八方的明枪暗箭，稍有不慎便会跌入万劫不复的深渊。 MT4服务器惊现国内私募? 看到这里，你的脑子肯定直接蹦出三个字：杀猪盘。 18%年化收益 "基从人员"四处揽客 据KK爆料，自己不知道什么时候加了一个叫"徐小丽"的人。这个"女人"告诉她，自己 ...