金十数据4月29日讯，马克·卡尼领导的自由党赢得了加拿大大选，但似乎失去了多数席位。凯投宏观经 济学家Stephen Brown认为，自由党将继续执政，并实施温和的刺激政策。对他来说，选举结果不会改 变他的预期，即加拿大的GDP增长将大幅放缓，但几乎可以避免衰退。不过，这位经济学家认为，卡尼 可能不得不向少数党新民主党或魁人政团做出让步，以实施他的计划，这可能意味着更宽松的财政政 策。这可能会让该经济学家对加拿大央行今年将再降息三次的看法产生怀疑，这可能会阻止加元和债券 收益率像预期的那样大幅下跌。 凯投宏观：仍认为加拿大的GDP增长将大幅放缓 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing potential inflationary pressures in the Eurozone due to U.S. trade tariffs, which may hinder global economic expansion [1] - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone indicated that these tariffs could lead to a deflationary effect in the Eurozone in the short to medium term [1] - The unexpected appreciation of the Euro following the U.S. tariffs has surprised ECB policymakers, who initially anticipated a depreciation that would increase import costs [1] Group 2 - Recent data shows that Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.6% in February, marking the highest level since April 2024 [2] - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the market anticipates further reductions in borrowing costs by the ECB, with expectations of two to three additional cuts this year [2] - Economists from major banks predict that the ECB may lower the deposit facility rate to at least 1.5% to stimulate demand [2] Group 3 - The volatility in U.S. tariffs has caused market turmoil, leading investors to seek alternatives to U.S. assets [3] - Cipollone noted that the recent performance of U.S. financial markets suggests they are not serving their usual role as a safe haven, which could have significant implications for capital flows and the international financial system [3] - The long-term effects of higher tariffs may undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade and finance, potentially leading to a more multipolar currency system [3]

Group 1 - Chinese companies including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent have placed orders for at least $16 billion worth of Nvidia H20 chips in Q1 2024 [2] - Multiple fund companies have received notifications from index companies about a reduction in index authorization fees, with the fees being generally reduced by 20% [4] Group 2 - Several companies reported significant year-on-year net profit growth in Q1, including: - Yitu Technology with a 287% increase - Lantian Co. with a 3543% increase - Jinlang Technology with an 860% increase - Juchip Technology with a 386% increase - Wuhan Fangu with a 195% increase - Huichuan Technology with a 63.08% increase - Xingqi Eye Medicine with a 320% increase - WuXi AppTec with an 89.06% increase - Yunnan Baiyao with a 14% increase - Shengyi Electronics with a 656.87% increase - Hongjing Technology turning a profit of 21.65 million yuan [5] Group 3 - Several companies reported declines in net profit for Q1, including: - Transsion Holdings with a 70% decrease - Dongbei Group with a 5.85% decrease - Zhongbei Communication with a 59% decrease, despite a 973% increase in intelligent computing business revenue - BAIC Blue Valley with a net loss of 953 million yuan, planning to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through a private placement - Yanghe Distillery with a 39.93% decrease [6] Group 4 - Stocks of multiple companies will face delisting risk warnings starting April 30, including: - Sitong Co. - Baidu Co. - ST Dongfang, which will terminate its listing - Weitai, which will also face delisting risk warnings - Aiai Precision Engineering [7][8] Group 5 - Lifan Technology announced it could not disclose its regular report by the scheduled date and is unlikely to do so within the legal timeframe [10] - The stock of Huadian Co. is set for a reduction of up to 12 million shares by Huishi Holdings [11] - Sairisi has applied for a main board listing in Hong Kong, with CICC and China Galaxy International Securities as joint sponsors [12]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 29 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 因美国与其他经济体抓紧推进贸易谈判而中国也部分豁免了对美国的关税措 施，全球贸易紧张形势出现缓和迹象并削弱了黄金的避险需求，但全球经济衰退 风险与央行降息预期支撑金价，伦敦黄金继续在 3250-3350 美元/盎司区间内偏弱 运行。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到 极大提振；目前看黄金的中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思维参 与交易，但工业需求压力下白银相对偏弱。本周关注特朗普关税政策动向、日本 ...

"如果在六个月内从1.01美元升到了1.20美元，那么的确，这是一个大问题，" BCA Research首席欧洲策 略师Mathieu Savary说。高盛集团的经济学家称，自3月初以来欧元兑主要贸易伙伴的货币上涨了5%。 他们表示这可能会在未来两年每年使通胀率下降约0.2个百分点，但若欧元进一步升值这种拖累效应可 能加倍。Barings投资组合经理Brian Mangwiro认为，要对冲这种冲击，欧元兑美元升值到1.20以上就需 要欧洲央行在年底前将关键利率从从目前的2.25%降至1.5%以下。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that Europeans are feeling anxious about the strength of the euro, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates to help bring the euro down [1] Group 1 - European concerns regarding the strong euro are prevalent among its citizens [1] - The potential for the ECB to implement interest rate cuts is being discussed as a measure to address the euro's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials are preparing for further interest rate cuts due to anticipated long-term economic damage from U.S. tariffs, despite potential softening of stance by the Trump administration [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Most policymakers left the IMF meetings in Washington feeling disappointed, expecting that Trump's unpredictable behavior will continue to increase uncertainty, suppress spending and investment, and ultimately raise inflation in the near future [1] - Economists from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley predict that to stimulate demand, deposit rates, currently at 2.25%, will be lowered to at least 1.5% this year [1]

欧洲央行管委Kazaks：如果（欧元区）增长预期骤降（前景继续恶化），欧洲央行只应当考虑降息至中 性利率水平的下方。 如果降息过多，会挤压（后续的）政策空间。（彭博） ...

欧洲央行管委诺特：6月降息还是维持不变，现在就采取立场还为时过早。 ...

2025.04. 23 本文字数：3342，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 最近几周，美国关税政策不确定性令全球经济前景蒙尘。同时，由此导致的政策信誉受损，也令美元 资产反噬，美国遭遇股债汇三杀，美元指数今年迄今，已跌超9%，并料将继续下跌。而美元走软， 给全球央行同时带来了缓解因素和头痛因素。 更大降息空间？ 资金流出美元资产反映了更广泛的信心危机，并可能产生溢出效应。例如随着美元走弱，美国进口通 胀率将上升。 对其他经济体而言，美元的下跌也导致其他货币对美元升值，尤其是日元、瑞士法郎和欧元等避险货 币。伦敦证交所（LSEG）的数据显示，自今年年初以来，日元对美元升值逾10%，瑞士法郎和欧元 升值了约11%。除了避险货币，今年对美元走强的其他货币还包括墨西哥比索对美元上涨5.5%，加 元对美元升值超过4%，波兰兹罗提对美元也升值了9%以上，俄罗斯卢布对美元甚至升值了约22%。 当然，尽管美元疲软，一些新兴市场货币对美元也仍然录得贬值。比如，本月稍早，越南盾和印尼盾 对美元汇率均跌至历史新低。土耳其里拉上周对美元也创下历史新低。 根据美国银行最近的全球基金经理调查，61%的参与者预计未来12个 ...