欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2509 | | 宏观形势好转带动风险偏好上行,指数已经突破短 | | | 股指 | 60955HII | 科技热度持续,中小盘指数再冲高 | 期震荡区间上沿,中枢上移过程中,谨慎追高风 | | | | IC2507 | | 险,但可轻仓卖出8-9月5900执行价MO期权收取 | | | | IM2509 | | 权利金。 | | | | 12509 TF2509 | 6月PMI环比略升,但内需仍需加力。跨月后资金利率或季节性 | 单边策略上,期债可适当逢调整配置多单。期现策 | | | 国质 | 6095ZS1 | 下行,7月上旬资金如果明显转松可能利好债市 | 略上,可以适当关注TS2509合约正套策略。适当 | | 金融 | | 6095711 | | 关注做陡曲线。 | | | | AU2508 | | 关注美国经济数据对美联储货币政策预期影响,金 | | | 贵金属 | AG2508 | 美元指数持续下行 贵金属止跌回升 | 价站稳60日均 ...

铁矿石：宏观预期回暖 短期偏强运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铁矿石 观点：国际宏观不确定性减弱+风险偏好上升。短期国内宏观预期有所增强，市场交投重心 或逐步交易强现实，外矿发运减弱，但到港量短期维持高位导致库存趋于累积，需求维持保持 相对高位水平，整体累库压力偏弱，预计短期铁矿石盘面价格区间震荡偏强运行。后期关注铁 水是否超预期回升以及政治局会议政策增量。 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日受焦煤复产消息影响，黑色系集体回落。成材端供需延续淡季特征但累库力度 较弱，铁矿石外矿进入阶段性回落周期，且碳元素不断让利于铁元素，高炉利润水平相对可观， ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：库存转为累库 关注淡季消费 晨报 铝锭 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 股 指 行 情 综 i不 回顾:昨日收盘,沪深300上涨0.37%至3936.1;上证50上涨0.16%至 2712;中证500上涨0.88%至5915.4;中证1000上涨1.26%至6356.2。沪深两 市成交额14869亿,较上周五缩量542亿。行业方面,航天航空、游戏、船 舶制造、光伏设备、医疗服务、电子化学品、珠宝首饰、小金属、通信设 备板块涨幅居前,仅证券、银行、水泥建材、航空机场板块下跌。 热评:昨日股指震荡上涨,市场成交量维持1.5万亿左右的较高水平。中 采PMI数据公布,6月制造业PMI为49.7%,比上月上升0.2个百分点,显示制 造业景气水平小幅改善。短期来看,股指经历强势突破后,在情绪和流动 性的驱动下进一步走强偏强震荡的概率较高,后续关注宏观增量信息对股 指方向的指引。中长期来看,展望下半年,7月底政治局会议将为下半年政 策定调,鉴于地产销售与投资可能进一步恶化,且消费虽有结构性亮点但 整体仍偏弱,预计稳定内需仍需政策进一步加力托底。与此同时,美国关 税政策尚未最终落定,叠加美联储降息时点渐行渐近,海外流动性宽松预 期及地缘政治格局 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备 | | 制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI均连续两个月位于扩张区间。 | | 财政部、国家税务总局、商务部发布公告，明确在2025年1月1日至2028年12月31日期间，境外投资者以中国境内居民企业分配的利润用于境内直接投资，若符 | | 合条件可按照投资额的10%抵免当年的应纳税额。 | | 深交所发布创业板"轻资产、高研发投入"认定标准，符合相关标准的上市公司不再受募集资金30%补流比例限制，有效提升相关公司融资灵活性，支持企业 | | 加大研发投入。经初步测算，符合标准的上市公司共计200余家，主要集中在信息技术、生物医药等战略性新兴产业。 | | 宏观信息 中共中央政治局召开会议，审议《党中央决策议事协调机构工作条例》。会议强调，党中央决策议事协调机构要坚持谋大事、议大事、抓大事，对重大工作实 | | 施更为有效的统领和协调，做到统筹不代替、到位不越位。要深入调查研究，提升决策议事质效，提出切 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic sentiment has rebounded during Trump's tariff grace period, but economic pressure remains. With the implementation of policy dividends, investment and consumption demand are expected to be continuously released. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the Politburo meeting in July further increasing policies to stabilize growth [1]. - As the deadline for the US to postpone tariffs approaches, the EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures. The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, Canada has cancelled the digital service tax, and the India - US trade negotiation is at a deadlock. The subsequent progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - The Fed is not in a hurry to act due to the unprecedented tariffs and the difficulty in predicting the impact on inflation. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the US Senate, and the US retail sales in May declined significantly [3]. - Macro - inflation trading has heated up. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and the gold price related to inflation expectations are worthy of attention. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In May, China's investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The third - batch of consumer goods replacement funds will be issued in July. China's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months [1]. - The People's Bank of China made a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan on June 26th, the highest since April 30th [1]. Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration admitted the flexibility of the tariff schedule on June 12th. The EU is preparing counter - measures, and the EU Commission President is confident of reaching an agreement by July 9th. The UK - US trade agreement has reduced tariffs on UK exports to the US. Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The India - US trade negotiation is deadlocked over auto parts taxes [2]. US Economic Situation - Powell reiterated that the Fed is not in a hurry to act. The "Big Beautiful" bill has passed the procedural vote in the Senate, and the Senate will vote on the tax reform bill on Monday morning local time. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since March 2023 [3]. Macro - inflation Trading - From the 2018 tariff review, tariff events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the "Big Beautiful" bill passing and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector and gold are worthy of attention, and the black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations [4]. Energy - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached. The IEA predicts that the oversupply of oil in 2025 may continue until the end of this decade. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th [4][7]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate industrial products and gold on dips [5]. Important News - China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in June all increased compared to the previous month [7]. - The UK - US trade agreement has come into effect, reducing tariffs on UK auto and aerospace product exports to the US [7]. - Canada has cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US, and the two sides will restart negotiations to reach an agreement by July 21, 2025 [2][7]. - The US Senate has completed the reading of the "Big Beautiful" bill and started the debate, and will vote after the debate [3][7]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, the UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for five years starting from July 1, 2025 [4][7]. - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026 [7]. - Trump said that due to low oil prices, a cease - fire agreement with Russia is expected to be reached [4][7].

Core Insights - The essence of non-performing asset (NPA) business lies in liberating production factors from bad assets and reintegrating them into new combinations to create new productive forces [1][2] - The management of non-performing assets is crucial for mitigating financial risks and supporting high-quality economic development, especially during economic transitions [2][6] Group 1: Understanding Non-Performing Asset Business - The domestic non-performing asset management industry originated in the late 1990s to address financial risks and promote state-owned enterprise reforms [3] - Two prevalent theories in the industry are the "Popsicle Effect" and the "Counter-Cyclical Hypothesis," which highlight the instability of micro-value and the long macro-disposal cycles of non-performing assets [3] Group 2: Profit Logic and Social Value of Non-Performing Asset Business - The existence of asset management companies is justified by their ability to demonstrate strong vitality in the national economy over the past two decades, despite the lack of comparative advantages in asset disposal [4] - Non-performing asset management plays a vital role in reallocating production factors to adapt to the current economic transformation, thus enhancing social value [6] Group 3: Role of Rating Companies in Non-Performing Asset Business - Rating companies, as independent think tanks, should leverage their expertise to assist asset management companies in developing restructuring businesses and mastering economic risk assessments [2][9] - The collaboration between asset management companies and rating companies can lead to resource sharing and complementary advantages, enhancing the effectiveness of non-performing asset management [11] Group 4: Pathways for Rating Companies to Support Non-Performing Asset Management - Rating companies can provide meaningful research support in the high-yield and junk bond sectors, expanding the scope of non-performing assets [11][12] - By utilizing their macroeconomic research capabilities, rating companies can help identify trading opportunities and facilitate enterprise restructuring [12][13] - The collaboration can also empower state-owned asset management companies to gain insights into economic risk assessments, enhancing their role in national decision-making [13]

【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 2025 年 7 月 1 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂、螺纹 钢、玻璃、纯碱、原油、燃料油、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3863 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2667 和 2653 点；IC2509 阻力位 5801 和 5838 点，支撑位 5745 和 5729 点；IM2509 阻力位 62 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...