证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·房地产 房地产行业跟踪周报 二手房成交面积同环比回落，加快构建房地产 发展新模式 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 投资要点 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 房诚琦 执业证书：S0600522100002 fangcq@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 19% 25% 31% 37% 43% 2024/7/1 2024/10/29 2025/2/26 2025/6/26 房地产 沪深300 相关研究 《新房成交面积同比下滑，多地放松 政策持续出台》 2025-06-23 《新房成交面积同比回落，更大力度 推动房地产市场止跌回稳》 2025-06-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 17 | 1. 板块观点 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2. 房地产基本面与高频数据 | 6 | | | 2.1. 房产市场情况 6 | | | 2.2. 土地市场情况 10 | | | 2.3. 房地产行业融资情况 11 | | 3. 行情回顾 | 12 | | 4. 行业政策跟踪 | 15 | | 5. ...

6月30日，百强房企销售业绩排行榜出炉。 从企业排名来看，保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产位居前三。 克而瑞研究中心的数据显示，百强房企6月实现销售操盘金额3389.6亿元，环比增长14.7%。其中，近六成百强 房企单月销售业绩环比增长。 业内人士预计，7月，新房成交绝对量或将延续低位波动，同比降幅仍有进一步收窄的可能。下半年城市分化 行情仍将延续，市场全面止跌回稳仍需政策进一步发力。 6月销售业绩环比增长1 4 . 7% 克而瑞研究中心的数据显示，6月，TOP100房企实现单月销售操盘金额3389.6亿元，环比增长14.7%。近六成 百强房企单月销售业绩环比增长，其中28家企业单月销售业绩环比增幅大于30%，如中海地产、华润置地、招 商蛇口、中国金茂、越秀地产、中国铁建、绿地控股等房企表现较好，单月销售业绩环比提升。 从上半年累计来看，中指研究院的数据显示，1—6月，TOP100房企销售总额为18364.1亿元，同比下降 11.8%，降幅较1—5月扩大1个百分点。其中，销售总额超千亿房企有4家，较去年同期减少2家；百亿房企有 46家，较去年同期增加2家。 责编：刘珺宇 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 美联储，突 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant financial challenges in 2024, with a reported revenue of approximately 75.34 billion and a net loss of 6.12 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of about 788.54% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a contract amount of 68.51 billion, down 55.39% year-on-year, and a signed area of 4.714 million square meters, a decrease of 46.25% [1] - The company successfully navigated its debt peak in the previous year, repaying approximately 20 billion in public market debts without any defaults [3] - As of the end of 2024, the company had a total interest-bearing debt of 73.5 billion, with only about 5.6 billion in public debts remaining to be repaid [3] Market Conditions - The overall market remains in a state of oversupply, and the industry adjustment is not yet complete, presenting ongoing challenges for the company [1] - The company’s sales continued to decline into 2025, with a signed area of 238,000 square meters in May, down 51.92% year-on-year, and a contract amount of 3.12 billion, down 52.07% [4] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on prudent operational adjustments, optimizing resource allocation, and enhancing organizational resilience to survive the current cycle and achieve sustainable development in the recovery phase [1][9] - The management emphasizes the importance of financial safety and a cautious investment strategy, particularly in light of the current market conditions [8] Future Outlook - The management believes that the Chinese real estate market will continue to exist long-term, with a projected annual sales scale of 4 to 5 trillion in 10 to 15 years [9] - The company is committed to adapting to market changes and policy directions to find new opportunities for survival and growth during the structural adjustments in the industry [9]

Core Insights - The top three real estate companies in sales performance for June are Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment [2][3] - The total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in June reached 338.96 billion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.7% [3] - Nearly 60% of the top 100 companies experienced month-on-month sales growth, with 28 companies showing an increase greater than 30% [3] Sales Performance - In the first half of the year, the total sales for the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 1,836.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.8% [3] - Four companies exceeded 100 billion yuan in sales, a decrease of two compared to the same period last year [3] - The sales contribution from second-tier cities accounted for 47.8% of the total sales of 20 representative companies, while first-tier cities' contribution increased by 9 percentage points to 40% [3] Market Trends - The real estate market is expected to continue its weak recovery trend, with new home transaction volumes likely to remain low but with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [5][6] - The government is anticipated to implement measures to stimulate housing demand, including urban village renovations and improving the financial conditions of real estate companies [5][6] - The market is still in a phase of adjustment, with a structural opportunity in "good cities + good properties" [6]

6月30日，百强房企销售业绩排行榜出炉。 从企业排名来看，保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产位居前三。 克而瑞研究中心的数据显示，百强房企6月实现销售操盘金额3389.6亿元，环比增长14.7%。其中，近六 成百强房企单月销售业绩环比增长。 业内人士预计，7月，新房成交绝对量或将延续低位波动，同比降幅仍有进一步收窄的可能。下半年城市 分化行情仍将延续，市场全面止跌回稳仍需政策进一步发力。 6月销售业绩环比增长14.7% 责编：万健祎 校对： 王锦程 克而瑞研究中心的数据显示，6月，TOP100房企实现单月销售操盘金额3389.6亿元，环比增长14.7%。近 六成百强房企单月销售业绩环比增长，其中28家企业单月销售业绩环比增幅大于30%，如中海地产、华润 置地、招商蛇口、中国金茂、越秀地产、中国铁建、绿地控股等房企表现较好，单月销售业绩环比提升。 从上半年累计来看，中指研究院的数据显示，1—6月，TOP100房企销售总额为18364.1亿元，同比下降 11.8%，降幅较1—5月扩大1个百分点。其中，销售总额超千亿元的房企有4家，较去年同期减少2家；超 百亿元的房企有46家，较去年同期增加2家。 中指研究院指出，上半年 ...

2025.06. 30 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 本文字数：2180，阅读时长大约4分钟 近期部分省份相继披露2025年前5月财政收支情况，由此可以一窥地方财政运行情况。 第一财经根据各省份财政部门披露数据梳理发现，截至6月底已有江苏、北京等17个省份公开了当地 2025年一般公共预算收支情况。 17个省份中前5个月一般公共预算收入保持增长的有15个省份，其中增速最高的是吉林省。 根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入562.2亿元，增长15%。这一增速远高 于全国一般公共预算收入增速（-0.3%）和地方一般公共预算本级收入平均增速（1.9%）。 在去年财政收入保持两位数增长（10%）背景下，今年吉林财政收入为何仍能保持两位数高增速？ 关键原因是吉林加大了盘活存量资产资源带动了收入增长。 根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入中，非税收入（243亿元）同比增长 30.6%，这主要是各市县为提升自主财力，加快资源资产盘活进程，使得非税收入中的国有资源 （资产）有偿使用收入（166.1亿元）同比增长104.6%。另外，吉林前5个月全省税收收入 （319.1亿元）同比增长5.4%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, despite experiencing significant losses in 2024, remains confident in its ability to navigate the challenging real estate market and is focused on sustainable development and strategic adjustments [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of approximately 753.44 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 61.15 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of about 788.54% [1]. - The company's contracted sales amounted to 685.1 billion yuan, down 55.39% year-on-year, with a contracted area of 4.714 million square meters, a decrease of 46.25% [1]. - By the end of 2024, the company had a total interest-bearing debt of 735 billion yuan, with only about 5.6 billion yuan of public debt remaining to be repaid, indicating that the peak of debt repayment has passed [2]. Market Conditions - The overall market remains in a downturn, with the national market heat reaching a low of 15% in September 2023, recovering to around 50% in October but still below previous highs [3]. - The company has seen a significant drop in sales, with a monthly average sales scale decreasing from approximately 60 billion yuan in 2023 to about 30 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue a cautious approach to investment, focusing on core business areas and optimizing resource allocation while ensuring financial safety [4][5]. - The management emphasizes the importance of adapting to market changes and policy directions to find new opportunities for survival and growth during the ongoing structural adjustments in the industry [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company believes that the real estate market in China will continue to exist long-term, with projected annual sales remaining between 4 trillion to 5 trillion yuan in the next 10 to 15 years [5]. - The management is confident that despite the challenges, there will be opportunities for resilient companies to thrive in the evolving market landscape [6].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is undergoing a significant adjustment, characterized by a decline in overall transaction volume and a shift towards a "stock era" where existing properties are prioritized over new developments [1][3] - Regulatory bodies are implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the market, focusing on "strict control of new supply and revitalizing existing stock" to address structural changes in the market [1][4] - The recovery timeline for different cities varies, with first-tier cities expected to recover within five years, while third and fourth-tier cities may take up to ten years [4][5] Market Dynamics - The era of rapid real estate development is over, with a predicted decrease in annual development volume [3] - First-tier cities and rapidly developing cities like Hangzhou and Chengdu can still support new housing due to favorable population inflow, while many third and fourth-tier cities have excess inventory and do not require new construction [3][4] - The demand for housing is driven by ongoing urbanization and population movement, which will sustain housing needs in various regions [8] Policy Recommendations - Existing unsold properties should be converted into self-occupied housing rather than constructing new units, to avoid resource wastage [5] - Land approval processes should adhere to the principle of "housing for living, not speculation," ensuring that new land is allocated based on actual housing needs [5] Company Strategy - The company has adjusted its operations in response to market cycles, maintaining a conservative expansion strategy and preserving cash flow [6][7] - The company has reduced its scale in line with the market contraction, indicating a proactive approach to align with market conditions [7] Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is performing better than the new housing market, with significant transaction volumes in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai [8] - The company is developing a "Central City Index" to provide a scientific basis for price trends in the real estate market, addressing the lack of standardized pricing mechanisms [10] Technological Advancements - The company is embracing AI technology to enhance its services, including developing valuation systems for banks and predictive pricing models for clients [11][12] - The anticipated completion of a large-scale data model for the real estate sector is expected within one to six months, aimed at improving transaction efficiency [12]

信达证券 2025 年 7 月"十大金股"组合 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 30 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略专题报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor 策略首席分析师 ] 职业编号：S1500521060001 邮箱：fanjituo@cindasc.com 刘旺 传媒互联网联席首席分析师 职业编号：S1500522110006 邮箱：liuwang@cindasc.com 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 唐爱金 医药行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 程丽丽 食品饮料分析师 执业编号：S1500523110003 邮箱：chenglili@cindasc.com 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 李春驰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan Municipal Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau has announced an extension of certain real estate policy deadlines to promote stable and healthy development in the local real estate market [1] Group 1: Policy Extension - The deadline for the policy regarding the optimization of new residential property project approval services has been extended to December 31, 2025 [1] - From October 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, purchasing new residential properties in Wuhan will qualify as a first home for families, allowing for a full rebate on the paid deed tax [1] - For families purchasing a second home, a 50% rebate on the paid deed tax will be provided [1]