交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 11 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-11） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行，后续供应依 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情 | | | | | 况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中 | | | | | 长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库 | | | | | 存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，短期大 | | | | | 幅拉涨并突破 740 元/吨一线，短期偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | 煤焦 | 上行 | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近日国内高层会议定调，最核心的两个：治理低价无序竞争和推动落后产能有序退出， 新一轮供给侧改革可能到来提振国内商品期货。目前胶市供应端处在割胶旺季，增量预期较强，月 环比产出压力较大。与此同时，下游需求偏弱，轮胎产销增速放缓，叠加终端需求迎来淡季。在偏 多氛围支撑下，本周四夜盘国内沪胶期货 2509 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势，期价小幅收涨 1.19%至 14410 元/吨。预计本周五国内沪胶期货 2509 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance communication with market participants and promote reforms to support innovation and high-quality development [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized increasing investment in key areas of new urbanization, targeting to achieve basic new urbanization goals by 2035 [2] Group 2: International News - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive and may need to be lowered if inflation continues to decline [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - On July 10, the bond market weakened significantly due to multiple negative factors, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1.45 basis points to 1.6595% [8] - The convertible bond market saw most individual bonds rise, with 338 out of 469 convertible bonds increasing in value [17] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.19% to $66.88 per barrel, while natural gas prices rose by 4.96% to $3.365 per million British thermal units [4] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net fund injection of 328 billion yuan for the day [5]

吉林省自然资源厅牵头制定"标准地"指标体系，各地结合产业准入、功能区划和相关区域评估要求，合 理构建符合本地实际、可监管的"标准地"准入指标。指标体系以容积率、固定资产投资强度、地均税收 3项指标为主要指标，构建"3+N"控制指标体系(其中，容积率、固定资产投资强度、地均税收为主要指 标，"N"即土地产出率、建筑系数、能耗标准、排放标准、科研投入、就业等其他自选指标)，在出让公 告中一同发布。各地可根据国家产业政策和行业发展态势实行动态调整，对列为战略性新兴产业、先进 制造业的工业项目，可设置科研投入、就业、技术、产品品质等软性控制指标。各市(州)、县(市)应在 2025年底前公布本地开发区"标准地"指标体系和指标值。 另外，吉林省各市(州)、县(市)围绕事前定标准、事中作承诺、事后强监管等关键环节，制定"标准 地"操作流程、工作指引、协议文本等。严格执行"净地"出让，"标准地"供应前须达到"五通一平"，鼓 励达到"七通一平"。 《指导意见》明确，鼓励各地根据产业类型、企业生命周期、投资状况等要素，选择长期租赁、先租后 让、弹性年期出让等方式供应"标准地"，减少用地单位一次性拿地成本；探索创新工业用地竞价方式 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum is expected to remain high both in the short - term and medium - term. The supply capacity has limited room for growth, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the good performance of the automotive market is favorable for the aluminum price [1]. - **Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil)**: The price of steel is expected to be strong both in the short - term and from July to August. The supply pressure of steel raw materials will ease, and the speculative demand for steel will increase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Variety Aluminum - **Intraday View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 20,500 - 20,800 [1]. - **Medium - term View**: High - level operation, with a trading range of 19,200 - 21,000 [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Sell AL2508 - P - 19300 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Supply capacity is close to the upper limit set in 2017, the current inventory is at a 5 - year low, and the automotive market is performing well [1]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Intraday View**: Prices are expected to run strongly [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Prices are expected to be strong from July to August [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the bought rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3000, exit the call option selling strategy, and hold the sold rebar RB2510 - P - 2900 [3]. - **Core Logic**: - Supply: The inventory pressure of steel raw materials will ease after mid - July, which may support the prices of furnace materials and steel production costs. The supply pressure of imported iron ore will decrease, and the coal and coke prices are expected to stabilize and rebound [3]. - Demand: Although the overall downstream consumption of steel is weak, the plate demand is okay, and the speculative demand is expected to increase due to positive factors [4].

Economic Growth and Achievements - The economic increment in China over the past five years is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the total economic output of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces in 2024, surpassing the total of the Yangtze River Delta region and the GDP of the world's third-largest economy [1] - The manufacturing sector has consistently contributed over 30 trillion yuan annually, with China maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturer for 15 consecutive years, producing the highest output of over 220 major industrial products globally [1] Innovation and R&D - Innovation has been prioritized in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with R&D investment intensity increased to 2.68%, nearing the OECD average, showcasing significant breakthroughs in various fields [2] - The challenges posed by "decoupling and supply chain disruptions" have only strengthened China's resolve for self-reliance and accelerated the pace of independent innovation [2] Quality of Life Improvements - The average life expectancy in China has reached 79 years, with a consistent increase of 1 year every five years from the 12th to the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The construction and upgrading of high-standard farmland have reached 460 million mu, with over 1 billion mu completed, ensuring food security as China leads in the production of grains and meat globally [3] Environmental Progress - China has made significant improvements in ecological conditions, with the largest increase in forest area globally, contributing to one-fourth of the world's new greening area [3] - The achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period have exceeded expectations, positioning China as a stable and reliable force in global development [3]

宏观消息面： 1、商务部：已部署开展打击战略矿产走私出口专项行动。 2、当地时间 7 月 9 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，美国将对进口铜征收 50% 的关税，自 2025 年 8 月 1 日起生效。 3、中国汽车工业协会数据显示，1 至 6 月份，汽车市场延续良好态势，产销量均超过 1500 万辆，同比 均实现 10%以上较高增长。 文字早评 2025/07/11 星期五 宏观金融类 股指 4、北京：拓宽财产性收入渠道 鼓励上市公司合理提高分红率。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.32%/-0.77%/-0.95%/-1.71%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.41%/-1.31%/-2.15%/-4.21%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.49%/-1.60%/-2.73%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.42%/-0.54%/-0.60%/-0.56%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) held several symposiums with leading private equity investment institutions to gather feedback and address market concerns, emphasizing the importance of private equity in the STAR Market ecosystem [1] - Over 90% of companies listed on the STAR Market received investment and support from private equity institutions before going public, highlighting the critical role these institutions play in the market [1] - The introduction of the "1+6" policy has significantly boosted the confidence of private equity institutions and technology entrepreneurs, promoting a virtuous cycle of "technology-industry-capital" and enhancing the quality of service for technological self-reliance [1] Group 2 - Private equity institutions unanimously expressed that the "1+6" policy has improved the investment cycle, allowing them to invest early, in smaller amounts, and focus on long-term investments in hard technology, thus providing comprehensive lifecycle services to technology companies [2] - The SSE plans to strengthen communication with private equity institutions to better implement the "1+6" policy, guiding these institutions to seize policy opportunities and enhance their role in supporting technological innovation [2] - The SSE aims to promote the "1+6" policy through effective communication and case studies, ensuring better service for technological innovation and the development of new productive forces [2]

据河南发布，7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监会党委书记、主席吴清一行。 吴清感谢河南省委、省政府对中国证监会工作的大力支持。他表示，中国证监会将坚决贯彻落实党中央、国务 院决策部署，坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，立足自身职能，结合地方所需，进一步全面深化资本市场改革，完善 制度和产品供给，充分发挥多层次市场功能，在助力科技创新与产业创新深度融合、提高上市公司质量、防控 金融风险、拓展期货市场服务广度深度、支持乡村振兴和对口帮扶等方面与地方加强沟通合作，为河南落实国 家战略和高质量发展提供有力金融支撑。 来源：河南发布 责编：王璐璐 校对： 祝甜婷 百万用户都在看 重大利好！暴增1883%！ 红海，突发！击沉！ 刚刚，大涨100%！周杰伦，彻底引爆！ 重大转变！特朗普，突然宣布！ 事关降息！美联储，重磅传来！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com ...

来源：Wind 煤炭ETF（515220）7月10日收涨1.77%，日K线角度录得三根阳线，近4个交易日大额资金连续流入。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议，聚焦全国统一大市场建设推进工作，明确提出"五统一、一开放"的纵深建 设基本要求。会议直指"内卷式"竞争治理，强调要加快建立健全基础制度规则，破除地方保护和市场分割，打通市场 准入退出、要素配置等方面制约经济循环的卡点堵点，对"内卷式"竞争开展综合整治。 7月5日，中国天气网报道"今年以来最强高温过程持续影响，多地闷热贯穿全天"。在副热带高压控制下，我国正经历 今年以来最强高温过程，7月4日进入本次过程的鼎盛时段。在高温影响下，居民制冷用电负荷或将显著提升，从而带 动火电需求走高，电厂耗煤提升，采购力度加大，煤价上涨，迎峰度夏的旺季终至。 年初至今，动力煤煤价已累计下跌146元/吨；焦煤跌幅更高达290元/吨。由于煤价的持续下行，今年1~5月，煤炭行业 实现利润总额同比下滑幅度超50%。对于煤炭行业，"反内卷"是应对产能过剩、价格恶化和可持续发展瓶颈的系统性 纠偏行动。 本轮"反内卷"和历史上去产能有何不同？2016年2月1日，国务院下发《关于煤炭行 ...