Core Viewpoint - Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global oil prices, with predictions suggesting prices may exceed $100 per barrel, potentially reaching $120-$130 under severe geopolitical conditions [1][5]. Group 1: Iran's Position and Threats - A senior Iranian lawmaker stated that Iran could retaliate against enemies by closing the Strait of Hormuz, although another lawmaker indicated this would only occur if Iran's core interests were threatened [1][2]. - The Iranian parliament's National Security Committee member mentioned that Iran has various ways to respond to threats, with the closure of the Strait being a significant option [1]. - The closure of the Strait is seen as a legitimate response if the U.S. formally supports Israel in military actions against Iran [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Approximately 25% of the world's daily oil consumption, around 18 million barrels, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical shipping route for oil and gas [2]. - Clarkson's data indicates that 11% of global maritime trade transits through the Strait, including 34% of seaborne crude oil exports and 30% of liquefied petroleum gas exports [3]. - The economic risks associated with closing the Strait are high for Iran, as its economy heavily relies on oil exports, and such a move could isolate Iran from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries [4][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could surge to the $120-$130 range, with Brent crude futures already rising above $78 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions [5]. - Analysts generally view the complete closure of the Strait as a low-probability event, with a more likely scenario being a reduction in Iranian oil exports rather than a total blockade [3].

金十数据6月19日讯，印度石油部长Hardeep Puri周四表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡的船舶交通被封锁，印度 正准备从波斯湾以外采购原油，并削减自己的成品油出口。全球约四分之一的石油贸易要经过这条关键 水道。一些市场观察人士担心，与长期对手以色列陷入冲突的伊朗可能会选择袭击途经霍尔木兹海峡的 油轮，或者完全关闭霍尔木兹海峡。Puri表示 ："我们有足够的原油和成品油库存。我们有足够多样化 的原油供应，即使出现中断，我们也可以从其他来源获得。" 若霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，印度可能减少石油产品出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Secretary General of OPEC stated that oil demand continues to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the oil industry [1] Industry Summary - Oil demand is projected to increase, suggesting a robust market environment for oil producers [1] - The ongoing growth in oil demand may lead to higher prices and increased investment opportunities within the sector [1]

俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克：我们必须在减产后将石油重新投入市场。 ...

沙特能源部长：（当被问及俄罗斯和沙特是否会介入填补伊朗石油供应的潜在损失时）我们只会对现实 做出反应。 ...

俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克：我们需要稳定的石油市场。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大摩发布研报称，以色列与伊朗之间军事活动的增加，为未来油价走势开辟了广泛 的可能性，在此之中，预见了三种 "锚定" 情景：首先，军事冲突不一定会干扰石油流动。如果该地区的 出口未受影响，油价可能会回落至每桶60美元；其次，伊朗出口可能大幅减少，这可能会消除明年的全 球供应过剩，在市场平衡的情况下，油价将在75-80美元左右波动；最终，这场冲突可能会使更广泛的海 湾地区的石油出口面临风险，在这种情况下，2022年式的油价也并非不可能。 大摩表示："大部分概率集中在情景一，这是基准情况。由于缺乏真正的历史先例，情景三仍然是一个异 常情况。即使是小概率事件，若其上行空间巨大，也可能会推动油价上涨。只要不确定性持续存在，每 桶10美元左右的风险溢价就是合理的。" 大摩主要内容如下： 石油综合体对周五针对伊朗的袭击做出强烈反应：不仅近月布伦特原油期货价格上涨约 7%，而且在远期 曲线上，日历价差也大幅攀升。就在几天前，布伦特原油远期曲线在 2026 年及以后仍呈现期货溢价 (contango)结构，这表明市场预期供应过剩。但现在，这种情况已经消失，整个布伦特原油远期曲线再次 完全处于现货溢价(bac ...

从盘面上看，油气开采及服务、石油加工贸易、可燃冰、燃气、页岩气等能源板块今日涨幅居前。首华 燃气（300483）表现亮眼，午后直线拉升至"20CM"涨停；准油股份收获5天5板。 消息面上，据新华社消息，当地媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普17日晚告诉其高级别助理，他已批准美军 对伊朗的打击计划，但暂不下达最后命令，以观察伊朗是否会放弃核项目。 今日，A股三大指数调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.79%，深证成指跌1.21%，创业板指跌1.36%。全市 场成交额12808亿元。 油气股大涨 今日午后，同花顺油气开采及服务板块大幅拉升。 | | | 油气开采及服务 1528.57 5.09% | | C | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 新闻 | | 首华燃气 300483 | | 13.38 | +20.00% | +43.10% | | 首板 最终涨停13:16 | | | | | | 通源石油 | | 8.24 | +11.35% | +95.26% | | 300164 | | | | | | い アナイスセン | ...

金十数据6月19日讯，由于投资者担心美国可能会放弃中东问题的外交解决方案，加入以色列对伊朗的 攻击，油价波动仍然较大，这反映出市场担心冲突的任何进一步升级都可能加剧海湾地区石油供应中断 的风险。澳新银行研究分析师表示，石油衍生品市场突显出投资者的紧张情绪，看涨期权的溢价达到10 多年来的最高水平，波动性飙升至3年高点。特朗普星期二晚间对高级助手说，他批准了对伊朗的攻击 计划，但未下达最后命令。 由于美国卷入中东冲突的不确定性，油价波动仍然很大 ...

Industry Overview - The oil processing trade sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising over 2% as of June 19, 2023, and individual stocks such as Baomo Co., Ltd. and Maohua Shihua reaching the daily limit [1] - Recent oil price increases have been significant, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent crude futures by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2023, primarily driven by geopolitical factors affecting the oil processing trade sector [1] - The internationalization of oil processing trade is increasing, with China being one of the largest oil importers globally, enhancing the influence of domestic companies in international markets [1] Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the oil processing trade sector, driven by global economic recovery, demand growth, and policy support [2] - Companies are expected to enhance their capabilities through technological innovation and industrial upgrades, potentially gaining larger market shares and profits [2] - The stabilization and recovery of international oil prices, along with geopolitical uncertainties, may further enhance the valuation of the oil processing trade sector, providing good investment returns [2] Company Profiles - **Baomo Co., Ltd. (002476)**: Main business includes oilfield chemicals, fine chemicals, and environmental water treatment, with key products like acrylamide and polyacrylamide [2] - **Maohua Shihua (000637)**: Engaged in the production and sales of petrochemical products, with major products including polypropylene and liquefied petroleum gas [2] - **Baoli International (300135)**: Focuses on the production and sales of modified asphalt and other specialized asphalt products [2] - **Daqing Huake (000985)**: Specializes in fine petrochemical products and pharmaceuticals, with key products including C5 and C9 fractions [3] - **Heshun Petroleum (603353)**: Operates gas station chains, storage, logistics, and wholesale of finished oil products [4] - **Taishan Petroleum (000554)**: Engaged in wholesale and retail of finished oil products, including gasoline and diesel [4] - **Unified Co., Ltd. (600506)**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of lubricants [4] - **Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839)**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of specialty aromatic products [5]