Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

20250715申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2508 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2508 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 775.58 | 780.34 | 9140.00 | 9185.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 778.98 | 783.48 | 9179.00 | 9225.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -3.40 | -3.14 | -39.00 | -40.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.44% | -0.40% | -0.42% | -0.43% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 62625 | 91191 | 164208 | 206505 | | | | 成交量 | 44116 | 27458 | 218523 | 133459 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 1.8 ...

受美联储降息预期升温及国内"反内卷"政策影响，国内大宗商品市场情绪回暖，天然橡胶受商品市场联 动效应拉涨。截至7月11日，上海全乳胶主流报价已经攀升到1.44万元(吨价，下同)，较本轮上涨起点7 月8日的价格上涨400元。 "此轮上涨主要是'反内卷'情绪驱动，短期该因素或继续推升市场情绪，但由于海内外供应增量预期不 减，天然橡胶现货库存水平偏高，基本面弱势难以形成持续拉涨动力。待宏观情绪消退，天然橡胶价格 可能回归基本面并快速回落。"隆众资讯橡胶行业分析师李姿璇说。 供应宽松预期强化 今年橡胶产区正常开割，物候条件好于去年同期，全球产量同比回升预期增强，供应宽松格局凸显。 近期，海南产区天气情况有所改善，割胶作业陆续推进，岛内原料产出恢复季节性增量。海南胶水加工 厂高价抢收意愿降温，云南产区也因天气好转，天然橡胶产出增多。 需求淡季特征凸显 在供应增量释放的同时，下游进入消费淡季，尤其是半钢轮胎开工承压明显。据卓创资讯监测，二季度 半钢轮胎开工率为75.49%，同比下降3.28个百分点。 "自6月底至7月初，山东地区部分轮胎企业计划检修或降负，主要集中在半钢胎企业，影响时间在4至11 天，个别全钢胎企业也有4 ...

www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月15日 有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储降息预期时点缩减至9/12月 美元走强或抑制有色价格上升空间 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 清镇市铝土矿循环利用项目一期50万吨高硫铝土矿脱硫6月启动投料生产铝精矿44万吨/年，使国产和 澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(下降)，或使国内铝土矿7月生产(进口)量环比增加(增加)而供需预期 偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝7月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2850元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产能达到300万吨，26年将冲刺400万吨产能），国家电投 ...

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 上周六，美国总统特朗普称将对进口到美国的欧盟和墨西哥商品征收30%的关税。这震动了市场，将 金价推高至3374美元/盎司的日高点。然而，特朗普最近的声明表明，他对贸易谈判持开放态度，包括 与欧洲的贸易谈判，这给金价带来下行压力。 现货黄金周一(7月14日)一度涨到三周高点，但很快回落，最终收盘下滑。有分析师指出，特朗普对贸 易谈判持开放态度，这令市场风险偏好改善，打击避险资产黄金。美元涨到近三周高点，代表美元计价 的黄金对其他货币持有者来说相对昂贵。黄金走弱的另一个原因是美国国债收益率正在上升。10年期美 国国债上涨一个基点，至4.427%。联邦基金期货市场显示，交易员预期年底前美联储将降息50个基 点，首度降息可能落在9月。特朗普持续表示希望看到降息，因此这对黄金来说终究是很不错的支撑。 2. 美元走强也在给金价带来压力。追踪美元兑一篮子六种货币表现的美元指数(DXY)上涨0.25%，至 98.10。 3. 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意进行更多贸易谈判，包括与欧盟的谈判。不过特朗普坚称，他威胁要征 收新关税的信件对美国贸易伙伴来说是"交易"。 4. 投资者严阵以待美国周二公布 ...

至于数据对市场的具体影响，LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师劳伦斯·吉勒姆指出，市场参与者对CPI 数据的反应，将取决于商品领域中通胀压力的广度。"债券市场存在风险，如果我们确实看到通胀重新 加速，我们可能会因为错误的原因看到更高的收益率……如果美债收益率在通胀压力重新加速的背景下 走高，那么被定价的降息幅度可能会减少，这也可能渗透到股市……"吉勒姆说。 不过，他同时表示，"我认为，从通胀互换和盈亏平衡通胀率的走势来看，债券市场并不真正预期通胀 会重新加速。" 新华财经北京7月15日电美国国债收益率周一（7月14日）普遍上涨1BP左右，10年期美债收益率报 4.425%，2年期报3.896%。美国总统特朗普上周末宣布将自8月1日起对从欧盟、墨西哥进口的商品分别 征收30%关税，再度引发对通胀担忧。市场焦急等待将于周二公布的美国6月CPI数据。 分析师认为，在经历了几个月的低通胀之后，美国消费者6月份经历的物价涨幅可能略有加快，原因是 企业开始将与关税相关的进口商品成本上升转嫁给消费者。机构对经济学家的调查显示，预计不包括波 动较大的食品和能源成本在内的商品和服务价格将在6月上涨0.3%，达5个月来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

上交易日周一(7月14日)：国际黄金高开后，盘中再创三周新高，但之后回吐日内全部涨幅遇阻回落收跌，并收复缺口，多头动力减弱，但下方也有众多 支撑，整体走势也依然处于震荡三角趋势之中，故此如有回落，也可以看涨多单入场，等待上探历史高点而下的回落趋势线压力目标位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开于3363.64美元/盎司，亚欧时段整体处于3353-3375美元区间之内来回过山车，并在亚盘尾欧盘初录得日内高点3374.55美 元，并在美盘时段空头力量加大，进一步走低录得日内低点3340.89美元，之后止跌盘整运行，最终收于3343.27美元，日振幅33.66美元，相对于上周五收 盘价3357.76美元，收跌14.49美元，跌幅0.43%。 张尧浠：美CPI预期走强利空金价、关注回落看涨机会 影响上，首周末关税升级而高开走强，虽然特朗普威胁对俄征收100%关税，欧盟准备对720亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税，金价再度上探日高点，但由于 再度的获利了结而继续遇阻，并在美盘时段，关注的焦点集中在贸易谈判和美国经济数据上，美联储官员声称无迫切降息的必要，再加上市场预期周二美 国CPI数据整体走强，而打压金价回落收跌。 展望今日周 ...

全球形势只要不稳定，那么国际黄金价格就会大幅调整。如果是中东地区不稳定，那么国际原油价格就会大幅调整。现在中东局势动荡影响、俄乌冲突扩 大化，美国内政不稳，美联储降息预期在增大，所有不稳定因素叠加一起，导致了国际黄金价格和原油价格一起跳动。 在14日，国际原油价格一夜大涨7%，纽约原油期货价格大涨到每桶78美元，国际黄金价格一周上涨累计超过3.5%，又到了每盎司3400美元以上。之后虽 然有调整，但是站在高位的趋势已经奠定。那么未来黄金价格和原油价格如何变化呢？ 在中东地区，以色列率先动手，先炸了伊朗的所谓核设施核，针对伊朗高层军事领导人采取清除行动。伊朗后续进行报复，直接炸了以色列的能源设施。 后续以色列会不会也同样，去轰炸伊朗的原油设施？最终两国都走向了破坏对方军事目标和能源目标的老路上。 不过伊朗是石油输出国组织第三大输出国，也是全球前十大的原油产油国，如果原油设施遭到破坏，那对全球原油价格形成的影响巨大。而且伊朗还可以 掌控霍尔木兹海峡，这可是中东多个石油产出国的命脉，他们的总共出产，占了国际原油市场60%以上的份额。 而国际原油价格直接影响了国内成品油价格的波动，17日成品油价上调已成定局，仅仅是国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by easing tariff concerns and renewed narratives around AI and computing power, but faces challenges with the upcoming earnings season and liquidity risks in Q3 [1][2] - Analysts predict a notable divergence in sector performance, with a slowdown in earnings growth expected compared to Q1 2025, particularly in the energy sector, which is forecasted to decline by 26%, while technology remains strong with expected growth of 16.6% in information technology [2] - The S&P 500 index's Shiller PE ratio stands at 38.12, nearing historical highs, indicating that the market is currently overvalued, and future valuation increases may be limited [3] Group 2 - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two rate cuts this year, but there is increasing disagreement about the timing of these cuts, particularly for the September meeting [5][8] - The upcoming debt issuance wave and the large scale of maturing U.S. debt are anticipated to create liquidity shocks that could impact the stock market's performance in Q3 [9][10] - Historical data suggests that following the lifting of the debt ceiling in June 2023, the market experienced a significant bond issuance peak, leading to increased yields and a subsequent decline in the S&P 500 index [10]