Core Viewpoint - Long-term spending related to aging will exert continuous pressure on Japan's fiscal deficit, primarily reflected in rising healthcare costs. However, fiscal reforms may alleviate this impact [1]. Group 1 - Aging-related expenditures are expected to significantly increase, leading to sustained fiscal challenges for Japan [1]. - The primary area of concern is the escalation of medical costs associated with an aging population [1]. - Potential fiscal reforms could mitigate some of the financial pressures stemming from these rising costs [1].

| 贵金属日评20250707: OPEC+计划8-9月原油连续增产,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-06-30 | 收盘价 | 777.06 | 781.28 | 767.58 | -4.22 | 9. 48 | | | | | | 成交量 | 213782. 00 | 189582. 00 | 24, 200. 00 | 211285.00 | 2, 497.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 175040.00 | 19, 219. 00 | 155821.00 | -421.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 21456.00 | 3.000.00 | 18237.00 | 3, 219. 00 | 18456.00 | 上海 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

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Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 关税暂停期将结束，金价波动可能加大 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格呈震荡偏强走势。美国"大漂亮法案"在 国会通过而正式成为法律。另外，美国与其他贸易伙伴的 关税谈判期限7月9日临近，各国博弈加剧，谈判仍具较大 不确定性。但上周四与ADP数据背离，好于预期的非农就 业数据公布后，市场对于美联储降息的预期减弱。 ⚫ 7月3日，特朗普 ...

一、现货黄金基本面： 三、现货白银技术面： 5. 央行购金需求强劲：2025年全球央行对黄金储备的需求量维持高位。据世界黄金协会统计，2025年前四个月，各央行净购金256吨。中国人民银行截至 2025年5月末，已连续七个月扩大黄金储备。世界黄金协会6月17日发布的调查显示，95%的受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，近43%的 央行计划在未来一年内增加自身黄金储备，央行的购金行为对黄金价格形成有力支撑。 6. 市场需求结构变化：2025年一季度全球金矿产量同比增长0.5%至890吨，但同期黄金ETF流入量达226吨，推动投资需求同比增长170%。中国、印度等传 统消费大国金饰需求同比下降32%，而投资需求占比从2024年的18%跃升至34%。这种"消费萎缩、投资扩张"的格局，预示黄金正从商品属性向金融属性加 速转变，投资需求的增长有利于黄金价格上行。 二、现货黄金技术面： 回顾上周五现货黄金的价格走势，上周五美国独立日假期，美国市场休市一天，整体成交量萎缩，价格波动较小，截至目前市场报价约3330.00美元/盎司。 从短线1H周期技术图形观察，1H价格明显处于横盘震荡的走势中。 基于当前技术形 ...

2025年07月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农表现超预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：全球库存增加，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：横盘运行 | 6 | | 铅：短期消费旺季预期支撑 | 7 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 8 | | 镍：上方弹性受限，镍价低位承压 | 10 | | 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金250 ...

贝莱德等机构对第一财经记者表示，将继续看好美元风险资产，并超配美股。此外，多家外资机构都 将标普500的目标点位看多到了6500点。 2025.07. 07 本文字数：3405，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 高雅 美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税和支出法案（下称"'大而美'法案"），于当地时间4日正式由他 签署成为法律。 "大而美"法案因削减医疗保险、增加长期债务、取消清洁能源优惠政策和为富人及大企业减税等而备 受争议。虽然美股4日休市，但该法案于当地时间1日、3日分别在美国国会参议院和众议院以微弱优 势获得通过后，美股标普500、纳斯达克3日均创出年内新高，分别收于6279.35点和20601.1点。 ▲ 7月4日，在美国首都华盛顿白宫，美国总统特朗普发表讲话。图片来源：新华社 相比投资者对于美股的乐观，他们对美元、美债当前的情绪则更偏负面。"新法案的融资需求会让市 场重新聚焦美国财政赤字恶化。"渣打全球首席策略师罗伯逊（Eric Robertsen）对第一财经记者表 示。 根据美国国会预算办公室（CBO）的估算，预计到2034年，该法案将使国家债务增加4.1万亿美元， 并使1180万美 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 美国"大而美"法案的近忧与远虑 2025 年 7 月 07 日│中国内地 专题研究 概览：7 月 3 日，众议院投票通过"大而美"法案，7 月 4 日特朗普签署后 正式生效。权衡各方诉求后惊险"闯关"的最终版本长达 869 页，其隐含财 政扩张力度明显超过 5 月通过的众议院版本。我们维持 2026 年美国财政赤 字 7%的预测。"大而美"法案的实施有望对 2025 年 4 季度和 2026 年增长 带来短期提振，但这一财政扩张可能代价不菲。"大而美"法案的内容、逻 辑及立法过程都可能进一步削弱美国政府公信力。短期，美国债务可持续性 和通胀风险均可能加剧。中长期，该法案再次验证了在当前政治和舆论环境 下，美国减税和增支均有极强惯性。法案中 2029 年后收敛赤字的愿景或难 以实现。该法案将可能进一步恶化美国收入和社会福利分配，加剧政治极化。 1.预计 10 年增加财政赤字 4.1 万亿美元，赤字率较 2010-19 年上升 3-4pct "大而美"法案在众议院以 218:214 获得通过，快于 2017 年特朗普第一届 任期的减税法案和奥巴马的全民医保法案，相对于法案长度和内容繁复程度 而 ...