证券时报记者 贺觉渊 孙璐璐 江聃 展望三季度，多数受访者相信中国股市、汇市将继续保持韧性。 近期，证券时报发起"时报经济眼：2025年上半年经济学家问卷调查"，受访者包括政府部门、研究机构、知名院校等的权威经济学家。 本期问卷邀请受访经济学家 回顾二季度经济运行，展望下半年内外部经济金融形势，建言下半年宏观政策施策。截至7月11日，共收集到60份答卷。在人员构成上，受访者有35人来自金融机 构，5人来自政府部门，20人属于高校、智库以及非金融企业相关人士。 调查结果显示，超八成受访者认为二季度经济增速将不低于5%，其中48.3%的受访者预计处于5.0%至5.2%增速区间。受访者认为下半年消费形势在政策支持下将继 续企稳，楼市销售热度可能下滑；看好股市、汇市在三季度保持韧性。受访者认为中美经贸谈判结果对中国经济影响可控，建议下半年进一步加力扩围实施消费品 以旧换新政策，包括增加总额度，将服务消费纳入补贴范围等。此外，受访者普遍认为发展人民币稳定币较为紧迫。 二季度GDP增速不低于5% 积极评价货币政策 今年以来，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，贸易壁垒增多。中国经济展现出强大韧性和活力。从调查结果看，近六成（58.3% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the launch of Zhejiang Province's first "Comprehensive Service Platform for Foreign Cross-Border E-commerce Talent," which simplifies the processes of talent recognition and visa application for foreign professionals in the cross-border e-commerce sector [1][2] - The platform addresses the significant demand for foreign cross-border e-commerce talent in Hangzhou, particularly foreign anchors, while highlighting the severe shortage of supply and the challenges posed by inconsistent talent recognition standards and cumbersome processes [1] - The platform utilizes the 2023 Hangzhou's pioneering "Recognition Standards for Outstanding Foreign Cross-Border E-commerce Talent," which includes qualification review, skill assessment, and authoritative certification to create a more scientific, fair, and transparent talent recognition process [1] Group 2 - The platform facilitates communication between universities, enterprises, and international students, allowing companies to post job openings and enabling foreign talent and students to submit applications for talent recognition and internship visa annotations online [2] - Since its launch, the platform has processed 11 port visa applications for foreign talent invited by cross-border e-commerce companies, issued 10 work-study visa annotations, and guided 22 applications for recognition of outstanding foreign cross-border e-commerce talent, helping over 40 foreign students reach preliminary agreements with companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and vitality in 2023, with a stable increase in scale and improvement in quality, achieving a record high for the same period in history [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of 2023, China's total goods trade reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1] - The second quarter saw a 4.5% year-on-year growth in trade, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth [1] - The trade volume has remained above 10 trillion yuan for nine consecutive quarters, with all three indicators (total trade, exports, imports) showing year-on-year growth in June [1] Group 2: Belt and Road Initiative - In the first half of 2023, trade with Belt and Road countries reached 11.29 trillion yuan, a 4.7% increase, accounting for 51.8% of total foreign trade [2] - Trade with over 190 countries and regions increased, with 61 partners exceeding 50 billion yuan in trade volume, an increase of five from the previous year [2] Group 3: Private Enterprises - Private enterprises' trade performance was notable, with imports and exports totaling 12.48 trillion yuan, a 7.3% increase, representing 57.3% of China's total foreign trade [3] - Private enterprises have shown continuous growth for 21 consecutive quarters, with their export of high-tech products increasing by 12.5% [3] Group 4: Foreign Investment - Foreign enterprises in China reported a trade volume of 6.32 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase, maintaining growth for five consecutive quarters [3] - The integration of foreign technology advantages with China's industrial capabilities has led to a balanced expansion across various sectors [3] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have led to a recovery in U.S.-China trade, with June's trade value rising from under 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan [4] - The essence of U.S.-China economic cooperation is mutual benefit, driven by globalization and the deep integration of industrial chains [4] Group 6: Import Trends - The decline in import growth is attributed to uncertainties in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, which constitute about 30% of China's total imports [4] - As domestic demand expands, imports are expected to stabilize, with a shift towards quantity-driven growth in the second quarter [5] Group 7: Future Outlook - The overall stability in foreign trade is supported by a complete industrial system and the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [5] - Despite increasing complexities and uncertainties in the external environment, China's foreign trade is expected to continue progressing steadily [5]

Core Insights - The crystal industry in Donghai County, Jiangsu Province, has evolved significantly, transitioning from traditional mining and processing to a global sales model, leveraging e-commerce and live streaming platforms to enhance sales and reach [1][2] - The sales of crystal products have surged, with a notable increase in demand leading to raw material shortages and rising prices for raw stones [1] - The cross-border e-commerce sector has shown remarkable growth, with sales expected to reach 600 million yuan in 2024, marking a 60% year-on-year increase [1][2] Group 1: Industry Development - Donghai County's crystal industry has a long history, dating back to the Ming and Qing dynasties, and has developed a comprehensive industry chain that includes mining, processing, and sales [1] - The introduction of new sales models, such as short videos and live streaming, has transformed the way crystal products are marketed and sold [1] - The establishment of standardized e-commerce live streaming bases and logistics parks has facilitated the growth of the industry, with daily sales reaching nearly 3 million yuan and over 10,000 orders [1] Group 2: Market Performance - In 2024, the total transaction value of Donghai County's crystal industry is projected to reach 46 billion yuan, with e-commerce transactions accounting for 32 billion yuan [2] - From January to May 2024, the sales revenue of crystal products reached 24.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 36% year-on-year growth [2] - The development of cultural and creative products, such as "Shaolin Crystal Bottles" and "Palace Seals," has enhanced brand appeal and cultural value, expanding the product range significantly [2]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown resilience and vitality in the first half of the year, with total imports and exports reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, declining by 2.7% [1] - The number of trading partners with a trade volume exceeding 50 billion yuan reached 61, an increase of 5 compared to the same period last year [1] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 11.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of total trade, with a growth rate of 4.7% [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Exports to the EU totaled 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with daily trade exceeding 150 billion yuan [2] - Exports to the US saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan, a decline of 9.3%, with exports dropping by 9.9% [3] - The trade volume with the US decreased significantly in the second quarter, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% [3] Group 3: Product Innovation - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, marking nine consecutive months of growth, with significant increases in exports of high-end machinery and instruments [4] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 7.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 60% of total exports, with a growth rate of 9.5% [4] - The share of self-owned brands in high-tech product exports reached 32.4%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 4: Import Trends - The decline in imports was influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling prices of bulk commodities, which account for about 30% of total imports [5] - The average import prices of crude oil, iron ore, and soybeans fell by over 10%, contributing to the overall decline in import growth [6] - Despite the decline, domestic economic recovery and expanding demand have led to a stabilization in imports, with a shift to growth in the second quarter [6] Group 5: Enterprise Dynamics - The number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance reached 628,000, a historical high, with private enterprises accounting for 54.7% [7] - Private enterprises' import and export value reached 12.48 trillion yuan, growing by 7.3% and representing 57.3% of China's total foreign trade [7] - Foreign-funded enterprises also played a significant role, with their import and export value reaching 6.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [8] Group 6: Policy Measures - The implementation of 29 cross-border trade facilitation measures aims to create a more efficient and transparent business environment [9] - The total value of bonded repair business imports and exports reached 256.99 billion yuan, growing by 7.5% [9] - Innovations in regulatory models for import and export goods have been promoted, with container handling volume increasing by 11.3% [9]

据海关统计，今年上半年，我国货物贸易进出口21.79万亿元人民币，同比增长2.9%。海关总署相关负 责人表示，今年上半年中国外贸顶压前行，规模稳中有增、质量优中有升，成绩实属不易。尽管面临外 部不确定性，但多元稳定的市场、创新优质的产品、应变求新的外贸主体，让中国有底气、有信心、有 能力应对各种风险挑战。 呈现五个方面特点 今年以来，中国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，外贸在复杂环境下顶住压力、保持动力、展现活力。 在7月14日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，海关总署副署长王令浚介绍，今年上半年货物贸易进出口主要 有以下五个方面的特点： 外贸规模稳定增长。今年上半年，我国进出口规模站稳20万亿元的台阶，创历史同期新高。从季度走势 看，二季度进出口同比增长4.5%，比一季度加快了3.2个百分点，连续7个季度保持同比增长。 外贸"朋友圈"更加多元。今年上半年，我国对共建"一带一路"国家进出口11.29万亿元，增长4.7%，占 进出口总值的51.8%，较去年同期提升0.9个百分点。其中，对东盟进出口3.67万亿元，增长9.6%。 出口动能向优向新。今年上半年，我国机电产品出口7.8万亿元，增长9.5%，占出口总值的60%，较 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights significant announcements in the stock market from Sunday to Thursday, including "suspensions and resumption of trading, shareholding changes, investment wins, acquisitions, performance reports, unlocks, and high transfers" [1] - Important announcements are marked in red to assist investors in identifying investment hotspots and preventing various black swan events, providing ample time for analysis and selection of suitable listed companies [1] Group 2 - A company is involved in the development of embodied robot motor rotors and has made small batch deliveries, while also focusing on the research of magnetic steel for low-altitude flying vehicles [1] - Another company is one of the first in Hong Kong to provide a virtual asset trading system, with a projected net profit increase of over 700% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - A military-related company has received approval for multiple complete equipment system export projects, focusing on drones, robotics, and chips [1]

Group 1 - Chinese customs announced that starting from December 1 of last year, all least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China will receive zero tariff treatment on 100% of tariff items, with imports from these countries showing double-digit growth in the first half of this year [6] - In the first half of this year, China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7% [6] - China's industrial robot exports grew by 61.5% in the first half of this year, with significant increases in the export of lithium batteries and wind turbine units, reflecting the innovation vitality of China's robot industry [6] Group 2 - The global installed capacity of Honeycomb batteries increased by 110% year-on-year in the first half of this year, with overseas shipments accounting for 30% of the total, providing over 100,000 battery packs to companies like mimi and Stellantis [7] - SpaceX has agreed to invest $2 billion in xAI, an artificial intelligence startup founded by Elon Musk, which represents one of SpaceX's largest external investments and nearly half of xAI's recent $5 billion equity financing [8]

Group 1 - The article highlights issues faced by consumers when canceling Tokyo Disneyland's VP (Vacation Package) during the free cancellation period, resulting in unexpected refund deductions [1][7] - The VP package includes various benefits such as park tickets, fast passes, and meal reservations, making it more convenient for families visiting the park [3][4] - Consumers are advised to be cautious of exchange rate fluctuations and cross-border payment fees when booking international travel packages [8][10] Group 2 - The refund amount received by consumers can be lower than the original payment due to currency exchange rate changes during the refund process [8][9] - The article emphasizes the importance of confirming whether payments can be made in local currency to avoid potential losses from exchange rate fluctuations [10][11] - Experts suggest that international theme parks should improve service efficiency and provide clearer warnings about exchange rate risks during cross-border transactions [11]

南方财经全媒体记者 林汉垚、郭聪聪 北京报道 从货币结构看，2024年，香港美元保单新单总保费占比78.9%，港元保单新单总保费占比15.7%，人民 币新单总保费占比3.9%。 方正证券研究所所长助理、金融首席分析师许旖珊分析，内地居民赴港投保热度显著提升，预计主因近 年内地预定利率持续下调，内地高净值人群挪储需求旺盛，多元货币保单有望满足高净值人群出海的分 散化财富管理需求。 当大量内地居民怀揣财富管理需求奔赴香港购买保单时，一些不法分子也从中发现了可乘之机。 2024年香港保险市场迎来历史性爆发，根据香港保监局数据，2024年香港保险业新造保费为2198亿港 元，较2023年同期的1807亿元增长21.4%，首破2000亿并创历史新高。 但在内地居民赴港投保趋势之下，有不法分子打着销售境外保险的幌子，帮个人或企业非法换汇。 其中内地访客赴港投保全年贡献总保费628亿港元，较2023年同期的590亿元增长6.5%，占全港保费比 重为28.6%。 近日，无锡市江阴检察院公布一起涉案金额4亿余元的非法买卖外汇案件。一群高学历、高收入的保险 团队在销售境外保险的同时，做起了非法换汇的"嵌套"生意。 保单掩护下的资 ...