7月10日黑色系全线上涨，螺纹钢也显著走强。午后最新一期国内钢材产量库存数据披露，光大期货黑 色团队表示，虽然目前螺纹现货处于供需双弱局面，库存在淡季持续小幅下降，市场矛盾和驱动都不 足，但近期市场对于减产有较强预期，预计短期螺纹盘面或将震荡偏强运行。 综合来看，光大期货黑色团队预计短期螺纹盘面或将震荡偏强运行。 （文章来源：新华财经） 据他介绍，供应方面，目前长流程钢厂利润处于高位，短流程钢厂亏损也有所收窄，不过受唐山、山西 等地限产以及部分钢厂淡季检修影响，螺纹产量有所下降。需求方面，目前国内处于高温多雨的消费淡 季，终端需求处于低位水平，不过随着预期改善，投机需求有所上升。 Mysteel监测数据显示，本周一至周三全国建材日平均成交量为9.34万吨，环比回落12.57%，杭州市场 螺纹日均出库量为3.09万吨，环比回升0.24%，杭州市场螺纹钢库存降至58.4万吨。 另外，邱跃成还提到，目前螺纹现货处于供需双弱局面，库存在淡季持续小幅下降，市场矛盾和驱动都 不足。近期市场对于减产有较强预期，据了解山西地区钢厂已接到限产通知，要求各钢厂以2024年度粗 钢产量基准水平（6028万吨）为参考，实施10%-3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply and demand, driven by strong demand from downstream steel companies and a rebound in spot prices due to active trading in the futures market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 10, coking coal futures saw a significant increase of 2.79%, reaching 884.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The average daily production of raw coal increased by 38,000 tons to 1.918 million tons, while the average daily production of premium coal rose by 26,000 tons to 765,000 tons, both hitting seven-week highs [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was reported at 85.5%, an increase of 1.7% compared to the previous period [2]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in July due to the closure of the border during the Naadam Festival from July 10 to 17, which will further reduce imports of Mongolian coal [2][3]. Group 3: Price Trends - In the Luliang market, the auction for low-sulfur coking coal saw a starting price of 1,040 yuan/ton, with a transaction average of 1,123 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 123 yuan/ton from the previous auction on June 25 [2]. - The overall sentiment in the spot market remains positive, with expectations of slight price increases in the futures market, contingent on potential regulatory changes in Shanxi province before September [3].

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！ 先到先得！ 数据还显示，今年上半年，全球所有地区的黄金ETF均出现资金流入，其中，在美国上市的黄 金ETF吸引了206.8吨的资金流入，创下了五年来最强劲的上半年表现；在亚洲上市的黄金ETF 则吸收了104.3吨。 "尽管5月和6月的势头有所放缓，但亚洲投资者在今年上半年购买了创纪录数量的黄金ETF，在 仅占全球管理总资产9%的情况下，为全球净流入量贡献了28%的惊人份额。"世界黄金协会称。 Choice数据显示，今年以来截至7月8日，多只境内黄金ETF也获得显著的资金净流入。具体来 看，华安易富黄金ETF份额增长33.33亿份，按照7.17元成交均价计算，获得约238.84亿元资金 净流入；国泰黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF和博时黄金ETF均获得90亿元以上资金净流入。 作为上半年表现最佳的大类资产之一，黄金不仅价格持续走高，相关ETF也迎来巨量资金流 入。 世界黄金协会最新发布数据显示，今年1月至6月，全球黄金ETF"吸金"380亿美元，创下了自 2020年上半年以来的最大半年资金流入量。 上半年黄金ETF吸金380 ...

Core Viewpoints - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2067.0 points, with a closing report of 42045.0 points, reflecting a rise of 2.75% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends, with some expecting further upward movement while others anticipate a return to volatility [1][2] Group 1: Institutional Insights - Jianxin Futures believes that the shipping contract for August still has potential for upward movement, supported by better-than-expected price increases and a recovery in the SCFIS settlement index above 2200 points [1] - Guotou Anxin Futures predicts that the shipping market will shift back to a state of fluctuation, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the extension of tariff exemptions and the potential for a surge in shipping demand before August [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current spot freight rates are stable, which has led to expectations of price increases from shipping companies in early August, contributing to an overall improvement in market sentiment [2] - The shipping market is experiencing a tight supply situation, exacerbated by the anticipated surge in demand due to tariff policies, which may lead to a mixed sentiment regarding the timing of peak freight rates and seasonal declines [2]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC） 于 2025 年 6 月 17-18 日举行的会议纪要，为我们提供了美 联储内部对当前经济状况、未来展望以及货币政策路径的最新思考。本次会议的核心决策是 维持 联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25% 至 4.5% 不变，并继续推进 资产负债表缩减。然而， 纪要的价值不仅在于决策本身，更在于其揭示了委员会在复杂经济环境下所面临的挑战、内 部的观点分歧以及对关键风险因素的评估。 当前经济状况：韧性与隐忧并存 首先，纪要对当前经济状况的描述呈现出一幅既有韧性又不乏隐忧的画面。工作人员和与会者普遍认 同，尽管受到净出口波动的影响，经济活动在第二季度仍保持了「稳健」的扩张步伐。劳动力市场被描 述为「稳固」，失业率维持在低位，接近委员会对最大就业的估计。这表明，尽管经历了过去几年的紧 缩周期，美国经济并未如一些预期那样显著放缓或陷入衰退。 然而，纪要也捕捉到了一些潜在的疲软信号：企业和家庭信心指标持续低迷（尽管近期略有回升），企 业对启动新的大型投资项目持谨慎态度，制造业活动出现放缓迹象，以及部分低收入家庭面临的压力。 这些细微的观察提醒我们，经济的表层稳健可能掩盖了结构性或部门性的脆弱性。 ...

关注意信公众号 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 容询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 730.8 | 728.6 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 766.7 | 764.5 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 777.1 | 775.0 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 768.1 | 765.9 | 2.2 | 0.3% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 49.2 | 39.1 | 10.1 | 25.8% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 30.2 | 75.0 | -44.8 | -59.7% | 元/肥 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 40.6 | 85.5 | -44.8 | -52.5% | | | 09合约基差:金布巴粉 | ...

| L2601收盘价 | 7254 | 7225 | 29 | 0.40% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2509 收盘价 PP2601 收盘价 | 7278 7034 | 7245 7006 | 33 28 | 0.46% 0.40% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7045 | 33 | 0.47% | | | L2509-2601 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 20.00% | | | PP2509-2601 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7100 | 7090 | 10 | 0.14% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7170 | 7170 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 塑料基差 | -110 | -80 | -30 | 37.50% | | | 华东 pp基差 | 30 | 50 | -20 | -40.00% | | | PE PP非标价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东LD ...

| SHENN | 贵金属日评20250710: 多数美联储官员担忧关税推升通胀,美国财政部发债节奏不及市场预期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-08 | 收盘价 | 776. 22 | 781.28 | 766. 82 | -9. 40 | -14.46 | | | | | 成交量 | 187574.00 | 189582. 00 | 123, 264. 00 | 121, 256. 00 | 310838.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 181258.00 | 179131.00 | 2, 127.00 | 5.797.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 21558. 00 | 21585. 00 | 18456. 00 | 27.00 | 3, 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) has shown a positive performance with a 0.70% increase as of July 10, 2025, and a 4.61% rise over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics favoring gold investments [1] Performance Summary - As of July 9, 2025, the gold ETF fund has achieved an 84.63% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [2] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since its inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of six months and a maximum cumulative increase of 16.53% [2] - The fund's average monthly return during up months is 3.27%, with an annual profit percentage of 80.00% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [2] Liquidity and Trading Activity - The gold ETF fund has seen a trading volume of 1.69 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 0.57% [1] - Over the past week, the average daily trading volume has been 7.86 billion yuan, placing it among the top two in comparable funds [1] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for four consecutive days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 87.70 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan in net inflows [1][2] Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.49, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [3] - As of July 9, 2025, the fund has a relative drawdown of 0.40% compared to its benchmark for the year [4] Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The tracking error over the past two months is 0.002%, demonstrating high tracking precision among comparable funds [5]