J P M O R G A N Global Commodities Research 12 June 2025 Oil Markets Weekly 7% probability of something that has never happened Oil surged as much as 5% on reports that the US embassy in Iraq is preparing to be evacuated in response to heightened security risks in the region. Concurrently, the US State Department announced plans to order non-essential embassy personnel and their families to leave Bahrain and Kuwait, and the British Navy issued a rare warning to ships in the region, stating it "has been made ...

Global Commodities Research 13 June 2025 Oil Flash Note J P M O R G A N Israel's attack on Iran raises worst-case scenario probability to 17% Israel launched a wide-ranging attack on Iran's nuclear program and military leadership overnight, striking dozens of targets in an operation that pushes the region into a new conflict with uncertain consequences. While the initial attack avoided energy targets, the Israeli offensive could extend over several days, with Iran vowing to retaliate, potentially having a s ...

13 June 2025 | 6:19AM EDT Oil Comment: Higher Risk Premium Near Term; Unchanged 2026 Forecast +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland Daan Struyven +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Di ...

We shouldn't assume that what's happened is all that's going to happen. I don't know if it's the first inning of a ninth inning game or the fifth inning, but it's it's not the end of it. Why now.It's a good question. Bibi Netanyahu hinted or intimated that there was something new. We haven't seen it in the way of intelligence.Either the Israelis had some new intelligence about where Iran was or maybe put together an assessment that said something. This is what I would call a preventive war. This was a war t ...

With all that said, what do we make uh of the market reaction today. We had the typical bid for gold. We had the atypical uh lack of bid for treasuries and the markets hung in until Iran retaliated.Yeah. And it's it's amazing because a couple days ago it was like whoa, the VIX is grinding below. We're about to go south of 16 now.We're dancing, you know, up near 20. And and if you think about right, those inputs, I mean, the rallying gold. So, gold makes a fresh all-time higher right there around the May 6 h ...

Joining us now, we have former Israeli ambassador to the US, Michael Ern. Ambassador, we just got a security alert uh coming out of the US embassy in Jordan, saying the US embassy has indications there may be missiles, drones, or rockets flying over Jordanian airspace. It's urging American citizens to exercise caution uh due to high tensions in the region.But I want to ask you about those high tensions in the region. We saw the US State Department quietly move a lot of people out of those uh the consulate i ...

of staff. That was during President Trump's first term, co-chair of ACTUM. Now, Mick, uh, your thoughts, please, on look, a lot of people were saying that the president kind of intentionally like he knew about this days ago, didn't say anything to the Iranians.We've seen now the what that has meant. What more do you expect of the Iranian response. Um, a bunch of different questions there.What to expect of the Iranian response. It's hard to say. It's hard to know what they still have available to them.I gues ...

Catalyst anchor Brad Smith breaks down the latest news and market movers for June 13, 2025. Geopolitical risks pressure markets, with stocks sliding following Israel's attack on Iran. President Trump is urging Iran to make a deal. Former Ambassador to Morocco Marc Ginsberg discusses what the Israeli attack on Iran means for negotiations with the US. #youtube #stocks #investing About Yahoo Finance: Yahoo Finance provides free stock ticker data, up-to-date news, portfolio management resources, comprehensive m ...

Geopolitical Impact on Aerospace & Defense - Geopolitical unrest directly correlates with increased defense spending, leading to historic levels of global defense expenditure [7] - Ongoing conflict, such as the one involving the Israeli Air Force using F-35s, suggests continued robust demand in the aerospace and defense sector [3][13] - The situation suggests that peace is not expected in the near future, unfortunately driving defense spending [8] US Defense Budget and Spending - The House appropriators' FY26 bill is flat but includes a 45% year-over-year increase in investment spending, benefiting large-cap companies [6] - House Republicans are considering a reconciliation package that would allocate $150 billion in generational investment [7] - The Trump administration has discussed a $1 trillion defense budget, including both mandatory and discretionary spending [11] NATO and International Spending - A NATO summit is expected to discuss increasing equipment purchases to 35% of GDP [7] - If NATO were to increase spending to 5% of GDP, it could result in approximately $700 million in additional spending [11] US Foreign Military Sales - US foreign military sales are on pace for a third consecutive record year, indicating robust demand from US allies and partners [11] - Last year, foreign military sales reached $127 billion, following $18 billion the previous year [12]

Bring in show music, please. Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer on today's superersized squawk pod. Israel's strikes in Iran. Questions about who knew and how because you had to get Well, they knew, but doesn't mean we were involved. Reaction in Washington with Megan Cassella. The White House was emphasizing as these attacks were unfolding overnight that the US was not involved and that it was not providing assistance. And the impact on oil markets with RBC's Hale Croft. What do the Iranians do? Do they try ...