Core Insights - Orchid Island Capital (ORC) is a specialty finance mREIT focused on residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and is noted for its attractive dividend policy [1][2]. Dividend Policy - ORC offers a substantial dividend yield of 20.1%, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.4% [3]. - The company has a history of increasing its dividend, having raised it three times in the past five years [3]. - In addition to dividends, ORC has a share repurchase plan, with 2.7 million shares available for repurchase as of April 25, 2025 [6]. Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, ORC reported a strong liquidity position with $446.5 million in cash and cash equivalents, and no debt [7]. - This robust liquidity supports the sustainability of ORC's capital distribution [7]. Competitive Landscape - Compared to AGNC Investment Corp., which has a dividend yield of 15.3% and a payout ratio of 81%, ORC's dividend yield is notably higher [8]. - Annaly Capital Management, Inc. offers a dividend yield of 14.3% with a payout ratio of 101%, indicating a more aggressive dividend strategy [9]. Price Performance and Valuation - ORC shares have increased by 1.4% year-to-date, while the industry has grown by 7.3% [11]. - The company trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 0.80X, below the industry average of 0.98X [13]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings growth of 394.4% for 2025 and 24.5% for 2026 [16]. - Current estimates for 2025 and 2026 earnings are $0.53 and $0.66, respectively, reflecting significant improvement from previous years [19].

Group 1 - High-income investors have limited asset classes where they can invest with confidence in durable yields, avoiding unsustainable sources like return of capital or aggressive leverage [1] Group 2 - Roberts Berzins has over a decade of experience in financial management, assisting top-tier corporates in shaping financial strategies and executing large-scale financings [2] - Berzins has contributed to institutionalizing the REIT framework in Latvia to enhance liquidity in pan-Baltic capital markets [2] - His policy-level work includes developing national SOE financing guidelines and frameworks for channeling private capital into affordable housing [2] - Berzins holds a CFA Charter and an ESG investing certificate, and has interned at the Chicago Board of Trade [2] - He is actively involved in thought-leadership activities to support the development of pan-Baltic capital markets [2]

Group 1 - The core investment opportunity identified for early 2025 is Patria Investments (PAX), which is an alternative asset manager experiencing rapid growth [1] - The company is currently offered at a favorable valuation despite its growth trajectory [1] Group 2 - A promotional offer is available for new subscribers, providing a discount of $100 off the first year, emphasizing the urgency of the offer [2] - The company invests significant resources, including thousands of hours and over $100,000 annually, into researching profitable investment opportunities [2]

3 July 2025 | 8:18PM BST Global Rates Trader Short Runway to Rally Our economists' revised Fed baseline, which implies both earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, points to a lower range for US yields across the curve. We now expect 10y US yields at 4.20% at end-2025 vs 4.50% previously, with a modestly steeper curve the likely result. We continue to think that a larger sustained rally would likely require a weaker growth outlook than our forecasts suggest, but ongoing data uncertainty makes it hard to rul ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish stance on U.S. Treasury duration and recommends staying long in curve steepeners [6][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a dynamic labor market with slower private payroll growth but a low unemployment rate, indicating lower potential growth and equilibrium rates, which may lead to more Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][9][32]. - The employment report shows strength in state and local government jobs, particularly in education, which contributed significantly to overall payroll growth [10][11][22]. - The report suggests that as market-implied trough rates decrease, U.S. Treasury yields are expected to fall, supporting a bullish outlook on U.S. Treasury duration [35][41]. Summary by Sections Labor Market Analysis - The June employment report indicates slower private payroll growth, with a tighter labor market due to a decline in the labor force participation rate [9][32]. - State and local governments added 80,000 jobs in June, with education jobs accounting for 63,000 of these [11][12]. - The report notes that fewer teachers left for summer break than anticipated, which may have artificially boosted the seasonally adjusted figures [18][22]. Economic Outlook - The report emphasizes that lower potential growth will likely weigh on the equilibrium interest rate, suggesting that the Fed may need to cut rates more than currently expected [33][34]. - It is anticipated that the Fed's longer-run target rate may need to be adjusted downward over time [33][34]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends maintaining long positions in U.S. Treasury securities, particularly in the 5-year maturity sector, and suggests a UST 3s30s yield curve steepener [41][46]. - Specific trade ideas include maintaining long positions in UST SOFR swap spreads and SFRZ5 futures, with targets set for various instruments [46][49].

Market Trends & Interest Rate Expectations - Goldman Sachs lowered US Treasury yields forecasts [1] - The adjustment reflects an increased likelihood of earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts by the Fed [1]

Group 1 - Kraft Heinz shares are yielding above 6% based on its quarterly dividend, with an annualized dividend of $1.6 and a stock price as low as $26.57 [1] - Dividends have historically provided a significant portion of the stock market's total return, exemplified by the S&P 500 ETF performance from 1999 to 2012, where dividends contributed to a positive total return despite a decrease in share price [1] - The sustainability of Kraft Heinz's dividend yield is uncertain, as dividend amounts are typically influenced by the company's profitability [3] Group 2 - Kraft Heinz is classified as an S&P 500 company, highlighting its status among large-cap companies within the index [2]

Ghana’s domestic bond yields extended declines on Thursday after the West African nation reported inflation dropped to the lowest in more than three years. https://t.co/B3v0xhdVjF ...

Thinking about pushing some ETH over to Hydration to capture the 30% APY in the gigaETH incentivized LP. mostly just not sure I want to deal with moving crosschain, because I'm not sure how complicated it is to go from Base to Polkadot (or if there are strong liquidity routes that don't involved CEXs).tBTC yields are down from the first hour (lmao) but still ~25%, and my DOT rewards from last month have earned around $100 in the last 3 days from liquidity incentives.Will be rolling tomorrow's DOT reward int ...

Samuel Smith has a diverse background that includes being lead analyst and Vice President at several highly regarded dividend stock research firms and running his own dividend investing YouTube channel. He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional and holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering & Mathematics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and has a Masters in Engineering from Texas A&M with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning.Samuel leads the High Yield Inve ...