近期中美关税政策成为市场的一大关注点。12日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方关税大幅下 降。 多位券商分析师认为，关税降级幅度大超市场预期，经济基本面预期和市场情绪都可能大幅改善，或助 力国内权益市场波动中枢抬升。 中美经贸会谈进展超预期，5月13日A股高开，沪指探出近期这波反弹中的新高3386.23点，最终收于 3374.87点，收涨0.17%。 当日，沪深两市获主力资金流入3808.3亿元，有7个行业获得主力资金净流入，主要为美容护理、医药 生物、基础化工、交通运输、社会服务、纺织服饰、公用事业等行业，而国防军工、计算机、电子、机 械设备、汽车、电力设备等行业遭主力资金卖出较多。这与12日主力资金净流入和净流出的行业有所相 反。类似的情况在近期反复出现。 就A股后市走势来看，上述券商分析师认为，短期A股延续震荡偏强走势，可能突破上行；在中期维度 上，指数级别走势依然依赖于基本面改善。 主力资金净流入7个行业 5月13日，A股市场成交1.326万亿元。其中，电子、机械设备、计算机、电力设备行业成交额超过千亿 元，国防军工、汽车、基础化工、医药生物、通信等行业的成交额在500亿～1000亿元之间。相较而 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded from 2% to 1%, while inflation expectations have risen from 2.5% to 4.5%[1] - In Q1 2023, the US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3%[1] - China's exports to the US fell significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 21% in April 2023[14] Group 2: Future Scenarios of US-China Tariff Negotiations - Optimistic scenario: The US may cancel the suspended 24% tariff, retaining a 10% tariff, leading to a total tariff rate of 30%-50% by 2025[2] - Baseline scenario: If negotiations fail, the US could impose a total tariff rate of approximately 74% by 2025, with an additional 54% tariff on Chinese goods[3] - Pessimistic scenario: The US may reimpose the 24% tariff and increase tariffs further if economic conditions allow, with potential retaliatory measures from China[3] Group 3: US Motivations for Negotiation - The US is under pressure from rising inflation and economic stagnation, prompting a willingness to negotiate tariffs[14] - Strong discontent from the US business community regarding tariffs has influenced the US administration's approach to negotiations[15] - China's non-tariff measures, particularly in rare earth exports, have significantly impacted US negotiations[15] Group 4: China's Response Strategies - China may adopt a "genuine negotiation" approach, where it could agree to certain conditions while leveraging non-tariff measures[3] - Alternatively, if the US is not sincere, China should maintain a firm stance and focus on expanding domestic demand and diversifying trade partnerships[3] - China aims to strengthen international cooperation and oppose unilateral actions from the US[3]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 13 日 债市建议全面防守 ——中美关税谈判进展点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 事件：5 月 12 日，商务部网站发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。 联系人 中美关税谈判进展大超预期，美对华关税大幅下调。5 月 11 日美方宣布与中方达成 贸易协议，中方宣布达成重要共识，取得实质性进展。5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明》发布，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留 10%的关 税，其余加征关税取消。这相当于美对华关税降低了 115 个百分点（其中，24%是 暂停 90 天）。后续 20%的芬太尼关税可能随着进一步谈判而降低。我们对中美关税 谈判最终结果持乐观态度。 中国出口韧性超预期。4 月制造业 PMI 及出口数据反映美国高关税对中国经济的冲 击可控。4 月在对美出口总值（人民币计价）大降达 20%的情况下总出口金额同比 大增 9.3%。这反映了中国产业竞争力较强，汽车、新能源、高铁、家电等众多产业 具备全球竞争力。此外，中国军事实力可能需要重估。国内消费稳 ...

大宗商品研究所 沥青研发报告 沥青日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 沥青日报 第一部分 相关数据 | 名称 | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/12 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格与持仓 | | | | | | BU2506 （主力） | 3485 | 3481 | 4 | 0.11% | | BU2507 | 3462 | 3467 | - 5 | -0.14% | | BU2508 | 3437 | 3448 | -11 | -0.32% | | SC2506 | 479.5 | 482.3 | -2.8 | -0.58% | | Brent首行 | 64.89 | 64.72 | 0.2 | 0.26% | | 主力合约持仓/万手 | 9.5 | 10.8 | -1.2 | -11.30% | | 主力合约成交/万手 | 13.1 | 16.6 | -3.4 | -20.72% | | 仓单数量/吨 | 85980 | 86120 | -140 | -0.16% | | 基差月差 | | | | | | BU06-07 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the bean market has emerged, and it is expected to stabilize and rebound later. The prices of domestic soybeans and soybean meal have basically stabilized after last week's decline, and the probability of an upward trend in tandem with the external soybean market is high. The prices of oils are expected to remain weak and consolidate at relatively low levels, waiting for a rebound opportunity. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range-bound pattern [3][41][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Supply Changes** - In March 2025, China's soybean imports were 3.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8%, the lowest level in the same period since 2008. From January to March, the cumulative imports were 17.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [4]. - The USDA's May report shows that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 175 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons from April; Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is 48.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.5 million tons; the US soybean production is 118 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons from April, and the global ending stocks have slightly decreased [4]. - In March, the US soybean crush was 6.2 million short tons (about 207 million bushels), significantly higher than the market - expected average of 205.5 million bushels, and reached the upper limit of the forecast range, a 9% increase from February and a 1.5% increase from the same period in 2024 [4]. - **Demand Side** - The soybean meal inventory is gradually decreasing, and the daily trading volume is average. After the seasonal peak demand, the demand for soybean meal has weakened [4]. - The price of live pigs is gradually rebounding, and the slaughter volume is increasing [4]. - **Weather Factors** - In the next two weeks, the temperature in South America will be normal [8]. - **South American Sales Situation** - The sales of old - crop South American soybeans are nearing the end, and Brazilian soybeans are basically sold out. As of April 9, 2023/24 Argentine soybean sales reached 39.8413 million tons, with a progress of 82.64% [11]. - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - As of May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024 [12]. - **Arrival Quantity** - Soybean imports rebounded significantly in April, and the later supply of soybean meal will be sufficient. The estimated arrival quantities from February to June are 5 million tons, 6.5 million tons, 8.35 million tons, 11.5 million tons, and 10.8 million tons respectively [16][18]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume** - After the May Day holiday, the soybean supply became more abundant, and the crushing volume continued to increase seasonally [20]. - **Domestic Supply** - The price of soybean meal has been continuously falling, the soybean meal inventory of crushing plants has slightly increased, which is normal compared with the same period last year, and the soybean port inventory is at the highest level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of soybean inventory [26]. - **Soybean Meal Demand** - The spot basis is high, the peak demand for procurement has passed, and the demand growth rate has significantly declined [28]. - **Brazilian Soybean Price** - The Brazilian real exchange rate has fallen to a record low, new soybeans are fully on the market, and the sales enthusiasm is high, resulting in a continuous decline in prices [31]. - **Fund Position** - In May, funds reduced their net short positions in soybeans for the first time, perhaps anticipating a tariff reduction [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Price** - The soybean price in the Northeast production area has been stable with a downward trend, affected by weak demand and the decline of the Dou - 1 futures. The purchase price of low - protein raw soybeans in some areas of Heilongjiang is between 3800 - 3900 yuan/ton [36]. - **Price Spread** - The price spread between Dou - 1 and Dou - 2 continues to widen [38]. Oils - **Overall Situation** - After the mutual reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the crude oil price has gradually stabilized, but the production of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly, and the price is expected to remain at a relatively low level. Rapeseed oil faces the risk of policy - based tariff reduction, and soybean oil is difficult to rise significantly due to sufficient supply and the off - season of consumption. In the medium term, oils will maintain a range - bound pattern [45]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil** - In April 2025, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil was 1.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.62%. The production in different regions has also increased to varying degrees [45][49]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil** - In January, the production and inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased. The price of palm oil has been rising, exports have decreased, and the inventory has changed little [50][53]. - **Biodiesel Profit** - The profit of palm and soybean biodiesel has rebounded [54]. - **Soybean Oil** - The demand for soybean oil has seasonally declined, the inventory has seasonally increased, and the demand growth rate is at a low level [60]. - **Palm Oil** - Palm oil imports have increased, the inventory has decreased, and the seasonal demand has weakened [62]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - The later arrival quantity of rapeseed oil will gradually increase. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil and rapeseed remains high. The arrival quantities from March to June are 110,000 tons, 305,000 tons, 285,000 tons, and 185,000 tons respectively [64]. - **Inventory - Rapeseed** - The rapeseed oil inventory has changed little, and the rapeseed meal inventory has continuously decreased [67]. - **Rapeseed Crushing Volume** - The rapeseed crushing volume has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed [73].

摘要：日内瓦协议，关税加征幅度减至 30%，额外 24%延后 90 天视谈判结果而定。当 前美国对中国货物加征幅度为基础关税+一阶段协议约定关税+今年 30%。关税协议很 难扭转脱钩大局，并且后续仍有美国要挟他国围堵中国的风险，2 季度可能呈现抢出口， 科技与品牌含量低的行业获得更多优惠变量。虽然关税边际递减，但一方面高额关税的 客观存在，另一方面一旦外压降低形成普遍共识，财政政策加码的迫切性进一步降低。 当资产定价回归内因后，财政发力节奏与幅度仍是决定境内资产定价方向的主轴。 1、协议后美国对中国究竟征收多少关税？ 在讨论之前，很多人尚不确定，协议中到底把关税撤到多少？是当前中美之间普遍 30% 的关税，还是加征 30%？首先笔者从对方的官方网站进行科普。 查看具体关税，可以搜索美国国际贸易委员会 hts.usitc.gov 官方网站，输入产品具体 HS 编码进行查询。例如 HS 编码 6211.42.05 是休闲外套，普遍关税为 8.1%；澳大利 亚、韩国等在第二列豁免；像朝鲜、白俄罗斯、古巴等制裁国家适用 90%的超高关税。 具体查询对中国的关税定价，需要搜索第一列 8.1%后边"1/"注释中的 990 ...

一、 指数表现与成交量 今日 ， A 股三大指数集体高开， 但在 早盘冲高后市场出现获利盘抛压，午后指数震荡回 落，沪指微涨 0. 17 % ，深成指和创业板指分别收跌 0. 13 % 和 0. 12 % 。两市成交额 继 续 突破万亿元，达 1. 29 万亿元，较前一交易日 缩量 约 169 亿元。个股表现分化，超 4 000 只个股早盘上涨，但收盘时下跌个股增至 3200 余只，市场情绪从普涨转向结构性波 动。 二、 领涨板块：出口链与科技股主导行情 1 、 光伏设备与新能源：光伏板块全线爆发，多晶硅期货主力合约 4 日累计涨幅超 13% ， 头部企业如东方日升涨停，阳光电源一季度净利润同比大增 82.52% 。行业传闻头部厂商联 合减产挺价，叠加中美关税缓和后出口预期改善，推动板块情绪。 2 、 跨境电商与消费电子：中美关税下调超预期直接利好出口链。跨境电商指数创 2 个月新 高，恒而达、华纺股份等多股涨停；消费电子板块因供应链成本下降预期走强，叠加 VR/AR 技术提升购物转化率等长期逻辑支撑。 尽管中美关税缓和提振了整体风险偏好，但市场并未普涨，反而呈现显著分化，主要原因包 括： 1、 利好提前消化 ...

5月13日，港股全天表现低迷，三大指数呈现低开低走行情，尤其是恒生科技指数大跌3.26%，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌1.87%及2.02%，恒指更是止步8 连涨。 昨日中美关税削减重大利好，未能持续推动市场上行。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 800000 | min | 23108.27 | -441.19 | -1.87% | | 国企指数 800100 | min | 8386.21 | -173.02 | -2.02% | | 恒生科技指数 800700 | min | 5269.66 | -177.69 | -3.26% | 盘面上，作为市场风向标的大型科技股集体走低，昨日受关税影响而大涨的苹果概念股、汽车股、半导体芯片股跌幅较为明显；中资券商股、军工股、手游 股、体育用品股、保险股、电信股、家电股纷纷走低。另一方面，机构对黄金长期展望乐观，黄金股再度活跃，生物医药股集体反弹，海运股、内银股多数 上涨。 具体来看： 科技股低迷，美团、快手跌超4%，阿里、小米跌超3%，腾讯、京东、百度纷纷跟跌。消 ...

中美关税谈判提振市场风险偏好,后市建议关注中东地缘问题 单边未形成强趋势,建议观望。WTI波动区间给到 | | 原油 | SC2507 | . | Production of the first of the finish of the finish of the county of the county of the county of the county of the county of the county of the county of the county of the con | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 扰动 | [59,69],布伦特 [61,71], SC [450,510] | | | | | | 单边仍建议观望。主力合约波动调整到 | | | 尿素 | UR2509 | 市场整体氛围向好,短期盘面高位震荡为主 | [1750,1920]附近,期权端建议短期买入做扩波 | | | | | | 动率为主,仅供参考 | | | PX | PX2509 | 供需驱动偏强,叠加关税利好提振,PX走势偏强 | 短期震荡偏强,关注6700上方压 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant change in the US-China tariff situation, where both countries agreed to cancel 91% of tariffs, providing a boost to the global economy and alleviating market tensions [2] - Following the announcement, Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings issued a statement regarding a $22.8 billion global port deal, emphasizing that it would not proceed in an illegal or non-compliant manner, contrasting with their previous stance [4][6] - The company attempted to downplay the political implications of the port deal, asserting it was a purely commercial transaction, but public scrutiny intensified instead of subsiding [8][9] Group 2 - Li Ka-shing's shift in position reflects a strategic response to the easing of US-China tensions, as the company seeks to find a balance in its business strategy amidst changing circumstances [11][13] - The company stated that the port deal must meet three conditions to proceed: legal and regulatory approval, no violations of laws, and shareholder consent, indicating a commitment to compliance [15][18] - To regain public trust, the company could consider three remedial measures: terminating the deal and accepting legal consequences, shifting core business operations back to domestic markets, and engaging in charitable projects to improve its corporate image [20][30] Group 3 - The cancellation of tariffs is expected to lead to a recovery in commodity markets, particularly benefiting copper demand due to potential renewed cooperation in the renewable energy sector [38] - Chinese steel companies may also benefit from domestic growth policies, particularly in infrastructure projects, which will enhance demand expectations for rebar and hot-rolled coils [38] - Oil prices are anticipated to rise alongside improved macroeconomic sentiment, indicating a broader positive outlook for various sectors [38]