点击上图 ▲立即加入 美国5月Markit制造业PMI创三个月新高 美国 5月Markit服务业PMI初值52.3，创下两个月新高，预期51，前值50.8。企业在将进口商品和材料关税上涨的成本转嫁给消费者方面也取得 了成功：综合销售价格指数连续第三个月加速上涨，达到2022年8月以来的最高水平。（华尔街见闻） ｜点评｜ 美国 5月PMI回暖，增速仍然处于历史低位。5月美国PMI的变动还是与美国关税政策息息相关，美国与中英两国达成初步贸易协定， 制造业企业加紧从这两个国家购进所需产品，以防未来关税政策有变，带动新订单指数走高，企业库存水平快速提升，部分企业试图用囤货来 减弱关税风险。 值得注意的是，美国制造业和服务业出口订单均持续下滑，供应链延期时间被拉长。包括沃尔玛、耐克等美国企业在内，已经开始将关税压力 传导至下游消费者，美国消费者信心连续下降，美国 5月CPI大概率将有所上升。 5月22日，标普全球公布的数据显示，美国5月Markit制造业、服务业、综合PMI初值均好于预期，且录得扩张。具体来看，美国5月Markit制造 业PMI初值52.3，创今年2月以来的三个月新高，也是该数据连续第五个月高于50荣枯 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that the sovereign wealth fund plan has been paused until all other matters are resolved [1]

穆迪下调美国主权信用评级对美国股市、债市的冲击依然在延续，目前看其对美债的负面影响最为显著。截至今日发稿前，美国20年期国债收益率升至 5.105%左右，30年期国债收益率升至5.086%左右，均为2023年10月以来最高位置。 来源：Choice 数据 "卖出美国"音量再起 本周三，20年期美债的公开市场拍卖发行的最高中标利率达到了5.047%，这是史上第二次得标利率超过5%，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57下降至 2.46，惨淡收场。这是本次美国主权信用评级被下调后的直接结果之一：美债市场受到冲击，价格出现疲软，吸引力出现下降。 长期以来，5%的水平一直被认为是一个重要的心理阈值——一旦越过这个阈值，可能会带来更多的抛售和更高的收益率。 美债价格的高低将直接关系到美元的地位以及美国股市的波动，吸引力下降的美债可能会导致部分避险资金流出美国，从而影响美元地位。而美联储为了 支撑美债而采取的增持行动，从结果看也可近似看做增发美元，引发美元汇率下降。 据新华社报道，美国桥水投资公司创始人瑞·达利欧近日警告，穆迪对美国主权信用评级的下调文件描述中，对美国债务风险"轻描淡写"，穆迪未计入可 能因为超印美元自购美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's HarmonyOS computer launch marks a significant step in establishing a competitive presence in the global PC market, aiming to challenge the dominance of Windows and macOS [2][4] Group 1: Product Launch and Features - The newly released HarmonyOS foldable computer is priced between 23,999 and 26,999 yuan, indicating a premium positioning in the market [2] - The core competitive advantage of the HarmonyOS computer lies in its distributed microkernel architecture, enabling seamless connectivity across devices such as smartphones, tablets, and computers [3] - The MateBook Pro, equipped with the Kirin X90 processor, offers performance comparable to the MacBook Pro, showcasing Huawei's commitment to high performance [3] Group 2: Market Strategy and Developer Engagement - Huawei aims to attract global developers through a 1 billion yuan incentive program, with over 7.2 million registered developers and 23,000 native applications currently available [3] - The company is targeting a market share of 15-20% in China's commercial market and over 5% globally by 2025, with aspirations to reach 25% and 15% by 2028 [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Microsoft is responding to the challenge by enhancing collaborations with Apple and Google, optimizing AI features, and accelerating the development of hybrid architecture chips [4] - Despite the potential for disruption, Huawei faces challenges in adapting professional software and changing user habits, which will require time and effort [4]

以下文章来源于沧海一土狗 ，作者沧海一土狗 沧海一土狗 . 一名固定收益投资经理关于投资和研究的碎碎念 文 | 沧海一土狗 来源 | 沧海一土狗 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 01 引子 上周末，穆迪下调了美国的主权信用评级，把美国的信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，受此影响，十年美债利率大幅上行，目前在4.55%附近。 对于这个现象，大多数人有两个疑问： 1、下调美国的主权信用评级有什么实际意义？ 2、美元和美债到底是什么关系？？ 说实话，穆迪这一操作把一个极其容易混淆的本质给逼出来了——美元不是主权货币，但是，美债是主权债务。 很多人可能理解不了这句话的含金量，尤其是绝大部分中国人，因为我们的思维都是法币那一套，我们认为货币都是国家印的。 下面我们从一个最基本场景开始，慢慢推进，大家就能明白二者的差别。 02 一般的信用债 事实上，最一般情形就是每个企业的情形，企业会一定的债务，有利息和本金的偿付压力，这需要运营所产生的现金流来填窟窿，不足的 部分就需要增发债务——借新还旧。 特朗普的动机好理解，他就是想赖账；那么，为什么鲍威尔要硬顶着避免债务重整呢？？这是因为，美元是超主权货币。 我们可以设想一个 ...

中国海警局新闻发言人刘德军表示，5月21日，菲律宾3002、3003号公务船未经中国政府允许，非法闯 入中国南沙渚碧礁、铁线礁附近海域，并组织人员非法登上铁线礁活动。中国海警执法人员依法对菲船 只采取管控措施，并登礁查证处置，现场操作专业规范、合理合法。9时13分至14分，菲3002号船无视 中方多次严正警告，危险接近中方正常维权执法的海警21559艇，导致发生擦碰，责任完全在菲方。中 国对南沙群岛及其附近海域拥有无可争辩的主权。菲方行径严重侵犯中方领土主权，违反《南海各方行 为宣言》，破坏南海和平稳定。我们敦促菲方立即停止侵权行动。中国海警将依法在中国管辖海域持续 开展维权执法活动。(央视新闻) ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 美国财政部举行的200亿美元20年期国债拍卖结果不尽人意 智通财经 APP 获悉， 周三，美国股市遭遇重挫，三大指数创下一个月来最差单日表现，市场情绪遭 遇来自债市的沉重打击。 由于投资者对美国财政可持续性的担忧升温，长期美债遭遇猛烈抛售， 30 年期国债收益率重新升破 5% ，加剧了对未来融资成本上行的担忧，引发市场连锁反应。 Zacks Investment Management 投资组合经理 Brian Mulberry 指出，当前市场的核心疑问在于：美国还 能实现多少经济增长？政府的收入来源能否支撑其庞大的发债规模？他强调，这场债市震荡并非美国 独有，日本和欧洲债券收益率也同步走高，显示全球市场正面临共同的通胀与利率再定价压力。 当天，美股承压的另一个诱因是零售业绩不佳。塔吉特 (TGT.US) 公布的财报逊于预期，股价大跌 5.21%。此外，道指成分股联合健康 (UNH.US) 下跌 5.78%，成为拖累蓝筹股的重要力量。 美元走势同样显现疲态，ICE 美元指数当天下跌 0.52%，黄金与比特币则分别上涨 0.97% 与 0.03%， 后者盘中一度突破 10.9 万美元， 再创历 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5% reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1% interest rate cut, injecting 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market, marking a significant economic defense strategy amid global and domestic challenges [1][4] - The Chinese economy is facing a "triple crisis" with global supply chain disruptions, capital outflow pressures, and weak domestic consumption, leading to a 13% computing power gap for domestic tech companies and a 22% drop in US semiconductor stocks [1][2][6] - Domestic consumption remains low, with household consumption accounting for only 37% of GDP, significantly below the 60% level of developed countries, and the real estate market continues to adjust with a 9.3% decline in housing prices [2][6] Group 2 - The policy measures are comprehensive, involving liquidity expansion, targeted support for key sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market, with 1 trillion yuan aimed at providing "fresh blood" to the real economy [4][5] - Specific measures include 800 billion yuan in loans for technological innovation to support domestic chip companies and 500 billion yuan for consumer services, aiming to stimulate sectors like healthcare and elderly care [5][6] - The real estate sector is receiving targeted support, with mortgage rates for first-time homebuyers reduced to 2.6%, resulting in lower monthly payments and total interest costs [5][6] Group 3 - The policy response is part of a broader strategic competition with the US, focusing on maintaining computing power sovereignty and restructuring supply chains to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [6][7] - China's exports to ASEAN and Africa have increased by 7.8% and 12.5% respectively, indicating a shift towards new markets in response to US trade policies [6][7] - The effectiveness of these policies will depend on several key variables, including potential shifts in US Federal Reserve policy, the stabilization of the real estate market, and the pace of technological breakthroughs in the semiconductor industry [6][7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Dow Jones dropping over 800 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their largest declines in a month [3] - The catalyst for this downturn was a disappointing 20-year U.S. Treasury auction, where the yield surged to 5.047% and the bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.46, marking the worst performance since December of the previous year [3] - Following the auction, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5%, and the dollar index falling below 100 [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits were exacerbated by Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, leading to a reassessment of the safety of U.S. Treasuries by international investors [3] - The Trump administration's push for a large tax cut, projected to reduce taxes by $4 trillion over the next decade, is seen as worsening the already fragile fiscal situation [3] Group 3: Investment Signals - For long-term investors, two key signals emerged: the loosening of the global "risk-free rate" anchor, highlighting the value of high-dividend assets, and the re-evaluation of the safe-haven attributes of non-sovereign assets like gold and Bitcoin [4] - Bitcoin saw a significant price increase, briefly surpassing $110,000, with a year-to-date rise of over 15% and ETF inflows exceeding $40 billion, reflecting both expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and a crisis of confidence in traditional financial systems [4] Group 4: Technology Sector Insights - NVIDIA's CEO acknowledged a dramatic decline in market share in China, dropping from 95% four years ago to 50%, with revenue from the Chinese market falling from 19% to 5% [5] - This decline is attributed to U.S. export controls and the rapid rise of China's AI industry, confirming the trend of domestic substitution in technology [5] - Companies like Zhongke Shuguang and Beifang Huachuang have seen increased investment, indicating market recognition of this trend [5] Group 5: A-Share Market Dynamics - Despite the U.S. stock market's decline, the FTSE A50 index only saw a minor drop of 0.21%, with A-share trading volume remaining robust at 1.17 trillion [5] - Foreign capital continued to flow into the A-share market, with a net inflow of 3.5 billion, focusing on leading companies like CATL and Luxshare Precision [5] - The A-share market is driven by policy-supported technological advancements and consumer recovery, with gold and high-dividend assets serving as a safety net during market fluctuations [5] Group 6: Market Strategy - The current market is characterized by a struggle between "policy bottom" and "technical pressure," with the Shanghai Composite Index facing strong resistance around 3,400 points [6] - Long-term investors are advised to focus on two core areas: technological advancements driven by domestic substitution and consumer recovery supported by policy [6] - In the context of geopolitical risks and liquidity easing, gold and high-dividend assets are recommended as stabilizing investments [6]

今日早参 2025 年 5 月 22 日 申建国 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 邮箱：shenjianguo@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业研究组长 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：人民币或将有升值动力 4 月 2 日后，美国"对等"关税经历数轮调整，但实际结果是美国仍将对全 球加征 13-17 个百分点的进口关税。美国对中国关税更是经历了"过山车"， 两国于 5 月 12 日达成协议，将特朗普上任来对中国加征关税的水平从最高点 的 145%左右降低至 30%（参见《美中关税降级的缘起、影响和后续》， 2025/5/13）。由此，美元指数小幅反弹，而人民币兑美元汇率上升 0.5%左 右。我们认为，这一升值幅度并未完全反映今年来中国相对美国和其他经济 体基本面的相对变化。而在去美元化的大幕初启的背景下，全球、尤其是亚 洲资产大幅超配美元、低配本币这一实质意义上的"套利交易"势必经历结 构性"再平衡"，这一过程中，人民币贬值预期或将渐渐消弭，甚至出现升 值动力可能是题中之义（参见《新台币大幅升值的启示》，2025/5/7）。 风险 ...