交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年6月17日 价格：6月16日烧碱主力合约（SH2509）收盘报2276元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌0.35%。32% 离子膜碱：鲁西南：主流成交价850-870 元 / 吨 （较 6 月 10 日小幅上调，国家统计局数据显示 6 月上旬环比涨幅超 2%）。鲁中东部：主流成交价860-930 元 / 吨，部分企业因检修供应偏紧。 鲁北：主流成交价880-940 元 / 吨，受氧化铝厂刚需支撑。鲁南：主流成交价880-900 元 / 吨，区域价差收窄。50% 离子膜碱：主流成交价 1360-1460 元 / 吨，华东地区出口报价受国际需求提振。 供给： 本周中国 20 万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.5%，环比持平。 需求：氧化铝行业：产能利用率78.4%，环比微增 0.03 个百分点。粘胶短纤：开工率80.5%，环比下降 0.15%。印染行业：江浙地区开工率 63.5%，环比上调 0.27%。 库存： 截至 6 月 12 日，全国 20 万吨及以上液碱样本企业库存37.8 万吨（湿吨），环比下滑 1.07%，同比上升 4 ...

煤炭行业近一年市场表现 煤炭 煤炭月度供需数据点评 同步大市-A(维持) 2025 年 6 月 17 日 行业研究/行业快报 资料来源：最闻 【山证煤炭】情绪有所好转，二级市场 表 现 回 升 - 【 山 证 煤 炭 】 行 业 周 报 （20250519-20250525）： 2025.5.26 5 月： 供给：1-5 月原煤供给小增。2025 年 1-5 月，原煤累计产量实现 19.85 亿吨，同比增 6.0%，同比增速边际下滑。5 月当月实现 4.03 亿吨，同比增 4.2%。 需求：1-5 月终端需求受制造业和基建支撑，非电走势强于电力。25 年 1-5 月固定资产投资同比增 3.7%，其中制造业投资增 8.5%、基建投资增 5.6%、 房地产投资降 10.7%。25 年 1-5 月火电累计增速实现-3.1%，；焦炭累计增速 实现 3.3%；生铁累计增速实现-0.1%；水泥累计增速实现-4.0%。 4 月进口连续负增 2025.5.26 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liugui ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in London base metal prices amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while Citigroup remains bullish on copper prices, raising questions about the potential shift in market supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Trends - London base metal prices are experiencing a widespread decline due to geopolitical tensions [1] - Citigroup's bullish outlook on copper prices suggests a potential divergence in market sentiment regarding copper compared to other base metals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article raises questions about whether the supply and demand landscape for base metals is truly changing in light of current events [1]

在该银行所设定的基本情景中(这种情景出现的概率为 60%)，预计未来一个季度黄金价格将维持在每盎 司 3000 美元以上，随后会有所下跌。目前现货黄金的价格约为 3396 美元。 在对其他金属的展望中，花旗银行表示对铝和铜都持极度乐观的态度。分析师们称，这种轻质金属"与 全球经济增长和市场情绪的回暖高度相关"。 智通财经APP获悉，据花旗称，由于创纪录的涨势逐渐消退，黄金价格预计在未来几个季度将回落至每 盎司 3000 美元以下。包括Max Layton在内的分析师在一份报告中表示："我们的研究显示，到 2026 年 下半年，黄金价格将回落至每盎司 2500 至 2700 美元。"他们称，金价下跌可能是由于投资需求减弱、 全球经济增长前景改善以及美联储的降息举措所致。 今年黄金价格已上涨 30%，在 4 月份曾创下历史新高。由于美国总统特朗普破坏性的贸易政策以及中 东地区的危机刺激了避险需求，黄金价格持续攀升。此外，对美国财政赤字和资产的担忧，以及各大央 行为实现储备多元化而持续的购买行为，也支撑了黄金价格的上涨。 花旗分析师们表示："我们预计，到 2025 年末和 2026 年，对黄金的投资需求将会减少，因 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：局部区域煤矿减产 盘面延续小幅反弹 观点：短期市场情绪回暖，煤价止跌。但基本面上，煤焦供需均高位 小幅下滑，库存压力仍较大，价格谨慎对待。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 17 日 逻辑：昨日，受产地煤矿减产消息影响，煤焦价格整体延续小幅反弹 走势。现货端，产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳 运行，尚未有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 市场方面，据 Mysteel 调研，受环保因素影响，临汾多个地区检查趋 严。据调研了解，蒲县多数煤矿暂时正常生产，但部分坑口洗煤厂已经停 产，目前涉及坑口洗煤产能 870 万吨，主产煤种为低硫肥煤、高硫肥煤以 及高硫主焦煤，复产时间暂不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | | | 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：近期全国安全生产月以及环保要求短期对煤矿生产造成一定影响。据悉，5 月底以来， 山西、内蒙煤矿事故有所增多，主产区安监边际收紧，但对整体产量影响较为有限。进口方面， 2025 年 5 月，全国进口煤及褐煤 3604.01 万吨，环比下降 4.7%。动力煤产量、进口量均开始边 际收紧。需求端，数据显示，截至 6 月 5 日，沿海 8 省电厂煤炭日耗为 171.8 万吨，周环比增 0.7 万吨/天；内陆 17 省电厂煤炭日耗为 313.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current trends in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on upcoming developments [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 785.78 CNY per gram, down 1.37% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3418.9 USD per ounce, up 0.05% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors on Gold Prices - Federal Reserve Policy Meeting: The market anticipates the Fed to maintain interest rates, but investors are keen on future policy signals, particularly regarding rate cuts. A dovish signal could weaken the dollar and support gold prices, while an emphasis on inflation risks could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran have previously driven gold prices up. However, Iran's willingness to restart nuclear negotiations has eased market fears, limiting further gold price increases. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks continue to provide support for gold as tensions may escalate again [2][3]. - Market Profit-Taking: On June 16, gold prices fell over 1% as traders locked in profits after reaching an 8-week high. Without new safe-haven demand, gold prices may continue to consolidate [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Short-term gold price movements are highly dependent on the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting, geopolitical developments, and market sentiment. A clear signal of rate cuts could lead to a rise in gold prices, while the opposite could exert downward pressure [3]. - Although current geopolitical tensions have eased, they remain a potential source of support for gold prices. The market is also facing profit-taking pressures, and without new positive stimuli, gold prices may remain in a consolidation phase [3]. - In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support an upward shift in gold price levels [3].

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 16, with corn down 9.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel, wheat down 7.25 cents to $5.37 per bushel, and soybeans unchanged at $10.70 per bushel [1] - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush of 192.8 million bushels in May, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with industry expectations [1] - The supply of feed in the market is ample, leading to difficulties in raising corn and wheat prices despite favorable weather conditions in the Midwest [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that corn export inspections for the week ending June 12 were 66 million bushels, lower than the previous week but up 28% year-on-year, reaching a cumulative total of 2.049 billion bushels for the crop year [2] - Soybean export inspections for the same week were 8 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels the previous week, while wheat inspections increased to 14 million bushels [2] - Weather forecasts predict rain coverage in the Plains, Midwest, and South until June 19, followed by a period of high temperatures in the corn belt from June 22 to 24 [2]

中长期来看，全球央行购金潮与美元信用体系隐忧构成黄金的战略支撑。中国央行连续7个月增持黄 金，5月末储备达7383万盎司（约2296吨）；欧洲央行黄金占外汇储备比例升至20%，超越欧元成为第 二大储备资产。高盛预测，若美国债务展期压力加剧，2026年金价或突破4000美元/盎司。 分析师指出，若中东冲突外溢或美国经济数据疲软，金价可能突破3500美元关口；反之，若地缘局势缓 和或美联储释放鹰派信号，短期或回踩3400美元支撑位。市场需重点关注6月17日美国密歇根消费者信 心指数及6月下旬非农数据，这些因素或成为金价下一步走势的关键风向标。 美联储货币政策转向预期亦为黄金提供支撑。6月FOMC会议虽维持利率不变，但删除"通胀向2%目标 取得进展"的表述，鲍威尔强调"依赖数据调整政策"。市场押注美联储年内将降息两次（6月、12月）， 美元指数跌至97.8的4月以来低点，削弱了黄金的持有成本。此外，美国5月PPI同比增速降至2.6%，核 心PPI同比3.0%，创2024年8月以来新低，企业端通胀压力缓解强化了宽松预期。 技术面显示黄金短期动能强劲。伦敦金周线级别形成"上升旗形"形态，理论目标指向3500-3550美 ...