Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]

2025年5月17日上午，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在广东省深圳市盛大开幕。 第十二届全国政协副主席、中国人民银行前行长周小川出席开幕式，清华大学党委副书记过勇、清华大 学五道口金融学院院长焦捷分别发表开幕致辞。波兰前总理马雷克·贝尔卡、2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得 主迈克尔·斯宾塞发表主旨演讲。清华大学五道口金融学院副院长张晓燕担任开幕式主持人。 图为会议现场 迈克尔·斯宾塞通过视频连线形式发表主旨演讲。他指出，全球贸易体系方面，贸易战是互相伤害，必 须纠正，未来最有可能的情形是建立多边体系，欧洲、中国及其他主要新兴经济体支持建立相对合理、 可行的多边体系。从货币政策来看，美联储的货币政策是当前不确定性的来源之一。美联储的首要任务 是稳定就业、管理好通货膨胀，其货币政策会根据不同的情况进行反应，这是当前不确定的来源。技术 方面，中美之间差距在迅速缩小，DeepSeek等一些大模型在中国出现，未来人工智能（AI）的包容 性、普惠性越来越强。 图为迈克尔·斯宾塞 图为过勇 以"中国特色、世界一流"为目标锻造"金融重器"。本届论坛以"共享未来：构建开放包容的经济与金融 体系"为主题，他期待与会嘉宾深入交流，为促 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a multilateral trade system is likely to emerge in the future, supported by Europe, China, and other major emerging economies, as the economic weight of emerging markets increases globally [1][5] - Michael Spence emphasized that the current U.S. administration's approach to trade negotiations is predominantly bilateral, particularly with China, which accounts for 13% of U.S. imports and 15% of China's exports [3] - The easing of the U.S.-China trade tensions is expected to allow the Federal Reserve to focus on managing employment and inflation, with hopes for negotiations to alleviate cost pressures and return to a more normal economic environment [3][4] Group 2 - Three potential scenarios for the future global trade system were discussed: a return to protectionism, a dual influence of the U.S. and China, or a stronger multilateral system supported by emerging markets [4][5] - The most likely scenario is the support for a multilateral system by major economies, despite the current U.S. government's anti-multilateral stance, indicating that a global multilateral framework could persist even without U.S. involvement [5] - The economic capacity of emerging markets has increased significantly compared to 25-30 years ago, making a globalization process excluding the U.S. more feasible, albeit potentially chaotic [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, recording its largest weekly decline in six months, primarily due to a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - As of the report, spot gold dropped by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a daily low of $3,154, marking a nearly 4% decline for the week, the worst since November of the previous year [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by approximately 58 basis points by the end of the year, a significant reduction from the 120 basis points anticipated during the peak of panic in April [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold's price action on Friday mirrored that of Thursday, with a significant drop followed by a potential rebound, indicating a possible double bottom formation [2][4] - The key support levels are identified at $3,152 and $3,140, while resistance is noted at $3,210-3,212, suggesting a wide trading range for the upcoming week [4] - The strategy for the upcoming week is to focus on buying on dips above $3,150 and selling on rallies, with a close watch on the resistance and support levels [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day due to easing global trade tensions [5] - The market's concerns regarding oil demand were alleviated by a temporary suspension of tariffs between major economies, which is expected to help mitigate fears of a global economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with the price expected to test lower levels around $50 after a series of fluctuations [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on selling on rallies, with key resistance levels at $63.50-64.00 and support levels at $60.5-60.0 [6]

在全球经济格局深度调整、我国全面推进高质量发展的关键阶段，由中国人民大学与上海财经大学联合主办、国务院学位委员会应用经济学学科评议组指 导的第六届中国应用经济学年会于2025年5月10日至11日在上海浦东临港顺利召开。 本届年会以"中国经济的韧性：事实与展望"为主题，汇聚来自全国应用经济学领域的权威专家学者，围绕宏观政策设计、结构性改革路径、产业升级与金 融支撑等重大议题展开深入探讨。 编者按：近日，中国人民大学国家金融研究院院长、中国资本市场研究院院长、重阳金融研究院理事、国家一级教授，国务院学位委员会应用经济学学科 评议组召集人吴晓求在第六届中国应用经济学年会发表主旨演讲指出，需从全球格局演变、内部制度革新、外部需求拓展、金融功能嬗变等维度，构建起 解析中国经济现代化路径的学术框架。5月15日，上海财经大学发布其演讲要点摘录，现转发如下：（全文约5200字，预计阅读时间14分钟） 国务院学位委员会应用经济学学科评议组召集人、中国人民大学原副校长、国家金融研究院院长、国家一级教授吴晓求围绕"中国经济战略选择与金融价 值重构"发表主旨演讲，从全球格局演变、内部制度革新、外部需求拓展、金融功能嬗变等维度，构建起 ...

第六届欧洲政治共同体领导人会议于16日在阿尔巴尼亚首都地拉那举行，约50位国家和地区领导人及欧 盟机构领导人与会，讨论欧洲安全与经济挑战。会议主题为"新世界中的新欧洲：团结、合作、联合行 动"，重点聚焦俄乌冲突和创新、数字基础设施、能源可持续性和供应链安全等问题。欧洲理事会主席 科斯塔呼吁深化全球贸易合作，不屈服于保护主义。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩表示，欧盟准备对俄罗斯 实施新的大规模制裁，包括列出更多隶属俄罗斯"影子舰队"的船只、降低石油价格上限以及对俄罗斯金 融业实施更多制裁。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price fell on May 16, with a potential for the largest weekly decline in six months, driven by a stronger dollar and reduced concerns over the US-China trade war, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] - As of the report, spot gold decreased by 1.83% to $3,181.19, with a weekly drop exceeding 3%, marking the worst weekly performance since November 2024 [2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, now anticipating a reduction of about 58 basis points this year, down from a peak of 120 basis points during the panic in April [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold showed a strong bullish reversal after hitting a low of 3,120, with a target to test the upper channel at 3,500-3,438, provided that the 3,120 level holds [3] - The recent trading has been influenced by the timing of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with key resistance at 3,211-3,212 [3] - Short-term analysis indicates a potential for a second bottom test followed by a rebound, with critical resistance at 3,211-3,212 and support levels at 3,150 and 3,140 [5] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - On May 16, international oil prices experienced slight upward movement, trading around $61.98 per barrel, following a significant drop the previous day [6] - The rebound was attributed to easing global trade tensions, which alleviated concerns about the global economy and oil demand, despite ongoing supply surplus pressures [6] - Oil prices had previously fallen over 2% due to comments from President Trump regarding nearing a nuclear deal with Iran, although key differences remain unresolved [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The mid-term outlook for oil prices indicates downward pressure from the moving average system, with expectations of a decline towards the $50 level after a series of price fluctuations [7] - Short-term trends show oil prices testing the $60 support level, with a potential for a small upward movement before facing resistance around $63.50 [7] - The recommended trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $63.5-$64.0 and support at $60.5-$60.0 [7]

Core Insights - The total value of goods exported from the EU to the US in March reached €71.4 billion (approximately $80 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 59% [1] - This surge resulted in a trade surplus of €40.7 billion for the EU with the US, marking a historical high [1] - The increase in exports is largely attributed to exporters taking preemptive measures to ship goods to US ports in order to avoid potential tariffs threatened by the Trump administration, indicating a distortion in global trade flows due to recent policy changes [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 16 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升 5.6 个百分点至 34.4%，较去年同期高了 7.9 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性水平。据隆众资讯数据，5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万吨， 增幅为 1.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比持 平于 27%，略超过去两年同期水平，但仍处于偏低位，受到资金制约。本周华东 地区因主力炼厂船发为主，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 7.23%至 24.48 万吨，处于中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续小幅上升，但仍处于 近年来同期的最低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受制约，沥青实际需求仍 有待恢复。近期美国持续加大对伊朗原油出口的制裁，不过伊朗核协议或将签署。 关注美国对伊朗原油的制裁是否会放松。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球 贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，原油波动较大，供需双 ...

商务部副部长李成钢：APEC成员应携手维护国际经贸秩序稳定 坚决反对单边主义和保护主义 金十数据5月16日讯，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长出席亚太经合组织第三十一届贸易部长会议。 李成钢表示，近期个别经济体实施所谓"对等关税"、挑起全球贸易摩擦，严重违反世贸组织规则，冲击 多边贸易体制，引发全球经济动荡，很多贸易伙伴都表达强烈不满和明确反对。APEC成员应携手维护 国际经贸秩序稳定，践行真正的多边主义，坚决反对单边主义和保护主义，客观看待、妥善处理单边关 税措施引发的全球贸易失序，确保全球贸易在世贸组织框架下顺畅运行。 相关链接 ...