普京称在"北约不东扩"承诺上被骗。 普京当地时间27日在白俄罗斯明斯克表示，在落实完成此前与乌克兰在土耳其伊斯坦布尔达成的协议内容后，俄乌双方将举行第三轮谈判，俄罗斯已为此做 好准备。 据CCTV国际时讯消息，6月27日，俄罗斯总统普京在白俄罗斯出席欧亚经济委员会最高理事会会议后对媒体表示，俄罗斯在"北约不东扩"承诺上遭欺骗。对 于北约提升军费开支占比问题，普京强调，北约以"俄罗斯的侵略性"为由扩军备战，可这种侵略性并不存在，具有侵略性的实际上是北约自己。普京还宣 布，与西方的"单边让步游戏"已结束。 普京称俄乌将举行第三轮谈判 本月2日，俄乌两国代表团在伊斯坦布尔举行第二轮直接谈判，双方同意以"全部换全部"原则交换所有重伤和重病战俘，并大规模交换25岁以下战俘和阵亡军 人遗体。依据本轮谈判商定的换俘协议，俄乌同意至少各交换1000名战俘，俄方向乌方移交6000具乌军人员遗体。 综合自：CCTV国际时讯、央视新闻客户端 责编：万健祎 校对：廖胜超 普京当天在明斯克出席欧亚经济委员会最高理事会会议。他在会后举行的新闻发布会上表示，俄罗斯和乌克兰谈判小组负责人保持密切联系并互相通话，下 一轮谈判的主题将是关于两国 ...

Conflict Situation - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that over the past week, Russian forces conducted six precision strikes using high-precision weapons and drones against Ukrainian military enterprises, energy and port infrastructure, radar stations, ammunition and weapon depots, drone production facilities, and military airports [1] - Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 187 combat incidents in the frontline areas within a day, with preliminary reports indicating that four aircraft, including Su-34s, were hit, and maintenance areas for aircraft were damaged [1] Negotiation Situation - Ukrainian officials stated that negotiations for prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia are ongoing [2] - The Turkish Foreign Minister announced Turkey's readiness to host the third round of talks between Ukraine and Russia [2] - President Putin expressed readiness for a new round of negotiations with Ukraine, potentially in Istanbul, although the time and location have yet to be determined [2] Other Situations - The U.S. Treasury Department authorized civilian nuclear transactions with Russian financial entities [3] - The Ukrainian President signed an order to implement sanctions against Russia in line with the European Union and G7 [3] - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban stated that the EU's proposal to halt energy imports from Russia is unfavorable for Hungary, and they will not support it [3] - The Indian government discussed the supply of the S-400 system, upgrades for Su-30MKI fighter jets, and procurement of key military hardware with Russian defense officials [3] Additional Developments - Russian forces have taken control of one of Europe's largest lithium mines, the Shevchenko lithium mine [4] - The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched 363 drones and 8 missiles during nighttime attacks [4] - Russian defense forces reportedly destroyed 39 Ukrainian drones during nighttime operations [4] - Local governors indicated that Russian attacks targeted electricity facilities in the Kherson region [4] - The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian troops have occupied Nova Kakhovka in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine [4]

Group 1: Gaza Conflict - The European Council demands an immediate ceasefire in Gaza by Israel [3] - Israeli officials have halted the entry of food and supplies into northern Gaza [3] - Israeli military is accused of intentionally firing at civilian aid points in Gaza, which high-ranking officials deny [3] Group 2: Iran-Israel Relations - Israel claims to have struck over 900 Iranian targets during the conflict, resulting in the deaths of 11 scientists [3] - Israeli Defense Minister instructs the military to develop an execution plan against Iran after 12 days of conflict, focusing on maintaining air superiority and preventing nuclear weapon development [3] - The Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson states that military actions against Iran have met or exceeded established goals [3] Group 3: U.S. and Iran Dynamics - U.S. Energy Secretary asserts that sanctions against Iran's oil remain effective [3] - Iran extends flight bans in its western and northwestern regions until Saturday afternoon [3] - Iran claims to have arrested several suspected spies [3] Group 4: Regional Military Actions - Israeli military attacks Hezbollah's weapons and military facilities in southern Lebanon [3] - Lebanese sources report that Israeli airstrikes in the south resulted in one death and 11 injuries [3] - U.S. Senate rejects a proposal to limit President Trump's military authority against Iran [3] Group 5: Broader Military Context - Trump states that he has halted all work related to lifting sanctions on Iran and may consider airstrikes if Iran continues its enrichment activities [3] - Houthi leaders in Yemen claim to have launched 309 ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and drones at Israel since mid-March [3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that radiation levels in the Gulf region remain normal following damage to Iranian nuclear facilities [3] - Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer is scheduled to visit the White House for discussions [3]

科技股是本轮反弹中的绝对主角。以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数自4月8日以来上涨近32%，远超大盘 表现，而纳斯达克综合指数也在周五收涨0.52%，收报20,273.46点，为2024年12月16日以来首次创出收盘 新高。 相比之下，道琼斯工业平均指数表现相对滞后。该指数周五上涨432.43点，涨幅1%，收报43,819.27点，自 4月以来累计涨幅约16%，仍较历史高点低约2.7%。以价值股、传统行业为主的道指未能跟上科技股驱动 的强势节奏。 Zacks Investment Management的客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示，"所有我们原本担忧的负面因素，尤 其是关税带来的冲击并未真正发生，经济数据的韧性也超过预期，这令市场重新恢复理性并走回正 轨。"他指出，目前市场已经回到了2月末的水平，而彼时的波动还未真正开始。 不过，尽管当前市场表现令人振奋，未来的上行动力仍有待观察。Granite Bay Wealth Management的首席 投资官Paul Stanley指出，市场目前正寻找新的催化剂来进一步推动股指上行。随着中东局势暂时缓和，投 资者的注意力逐渐回到美国国内政策的走向， ...

2025.06. 27 本文字数：1974，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 高雅 随着美国威胁对欧盟加征50%关税的最后谈判期限7月9日的临近，欧盟内部两大经济体德国与法国在 应对策略上显现出明显分歧。 当地时间6月26日，欧洲理事会峰会在布鲁塞尔举行。德国总理默茨（Friedrich Merz）呼吁欧盟委 员会把握最后窗口期推动协议达成。而法国则认为，美国应完全取消对欧关税，否则欧盟会作出回 应。 6月27日，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）在会后的新闻发布会上表示，欧洲仍在 评估美方最新提案，已准备好达成协议，但也做好了谈判破裂的预案，"所有选项都已纳入考量范 围"。 当前，美国对欧盟钢铁和铝产品及部分衍生品征收50%的关税，对汽车征收25%的关税，并对所有欧 盟进口商品征收10%的基准关税。 德国ifo经济研究所国际经济研究中心副主任鲍尔（Andreas Baur）对第一财经记者表示，德国制造 业可能成为美国加税政策的重灾区。他称，当前，欧盟最重要的战略目标是"要将贸易冲突控制在美 欧双边范畴"，并与全球其他经济体维护合作，将对美出口转移至其他地区有助于缓冲损 ...

Core Viewpoint - Russia has made significant progress in the ongoing conflict, particularly with the control of the Shevchenko lithium mine, which is the largest lithium mine in Europe, containing approximately 14 million tons of ore [2][3][5]. Group 1: Military Developments - Russian forces have launched a substantial attack on Ukraine, firing 371 drones and 8 missiles on June 27, targeting the city of Staro Konstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region [6]. - The Russian Defense Ministry reported intercepting and shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in various regions, including 23 in Kursk and 11 in Rostov [7][9]. - The control of the Shevchenko lithium mine is viewed as one of Russia's most significant advancements in the conflict [5]. Group 2: U.S.-Russia Relations - The U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Lynn Tracy, is set to leave her position, marking a notable change in diplomatic relations [10][11]. - President Trump has expressed consideration for providing Ukraine with Patriot missile systems and additional military aid, indicating a potential shift in U.S. support for Ukraine [14][17]. - Trump's administration is reportedly working to repair relations with Russia, following a period of heightened tensions [13]. Group 3: EU's Position on Sanctions - During a recent EU summit, leaders emphasized increasing pressure on Russia but did not agree on a new round of sanctions, with Slovakia's Prime Minister vetoing the proposed 18th round of sanctions [18][22]. - The EU plans to provide Ukraine with €30.6 billion in financial aid by 2025, with €3.5 billion already disbursed through the "Ukraine Aid Instrument" [21].

Group 1: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU officials anticipate prolonged negotiations with the US due to unclear final demands from the US side [1][5] - The EU is currently facing strategic divisions, particularly between Germany and France, regarding how to respond to US tariff threats [3][4] - The EU Commission President stated that all options are being considered, including preparations for a potential breakdown in negotiations [1][3] Group 2: Economic Impact on Germany - The German manufacturing sector is expected to face significant risks if the US implements its proposed tariffs, with a potential 2.8% shrinkage in overall manufacturing size and a 38.5% drop in exports to the US [6] - The automotive and pharmaceutical industries are projected to be the most affected, with value losses of 6% and 9% respectively [6] - Germany is urged to establish new bilateral agreements with countries like South America, India, and Indonesia to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [6][7] Group 3: EU's Trade Strategy - The EU is actively seeking to diversify its trade network, with leaders agreeing to consider signing free trade agreements with the South American Mercosur bloc [7] - The EU's proposal for zero tariffs on industrial goods contrasts sharply with the US's demands for unilateral concessions [3][4] - The EU aims to balance trade negotiations by offering to purchase strategic goods from the US in exchange for lower tariffs [3]

跟踪中东局势动态 +订阅 金十数据6月27日讯，据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）报道，以色列军方表示，在其史无前例的"狮子 的力量行动"中，已打击伊朗境内900余个目标。以色列国防军声称此次行动造成11名伊朗核科学家及30 名高级安全官员死亡，其中包括3名高级指挥官。此外，此次行动共摧毁200个导弹发射装置——据称占 伊朗发射装置总量的半数，同时打击了飞行器及导弹生产基地，"由此阻止了数千枚新增导弹的生产"。 CNN称尚无法独立核实这些数据的真实性。 以色列宣称冲突期间打击伊朗逾900个目标 致11名科学家丧生 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端下降，液化气承压。近期地缘溢价挤出，成本端原油回 落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 上中游库存显著下滑，库存压力缓解，成本端焦煤反弹。华北基差转负， 淡季继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加， 预计产量继续下降，近期装置重启增多，预计下周产量增加。需求淡季， 下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。策略：短多长空。L 【7250-7400】 PP 空头反弹 现货市场成交乏力，短期跟随成本反弹。华东基差为 81（环比-35）。近 期检修力度加剧，预计 ...

2025 年 5 月工业企业利润点评 5 月工业企业利润缘何大降？ 2025 年 06 月 27 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 事件：国家统计局网站 6 月 27 日公布工业经济效益月度报告显示，1-5 月 份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 ➢ 虽然当前中美贸易冲突的风险已阶段性缓释，但在工业企业利润身上，来自 关税风波的影响才初步显现。工业企业同比增速从 4 月的 3.0%大幅转负至 5 月 的-9.1%，关税对企业利润的影响存在一定滞后性，美国加征关税对于企业盈利 的影响逐渐开始"具象化"。那么关税究竟对谁的影响最大？这份影响又会持续 多久？我们尝试通过 5 月工业企业利润这份"成绩单"来一探究竟： ➢ 除了价格之外，企业营收利润率对利润形成的拖累较大。若以量、价、利润 率对工业企业利润进行拆解来看，5 月表现为"量上价下、利润率负增"的形势， 这与 1-4 月的情形保持基本一致，但与此前不同的是，除了 PPI 降幅扩大导致价 格继续成为企业利润增速的拖累因子之外，企业营收利润率的下滑成为了 ...