Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's assets have a clear comparative advantage, primarily due to the manageable situation in the Middle East and the ongoing global restructuring of order, which has not yet disrupted existing pricing logic for global risk assets [1]. Market Trends and Asset Performance - In the first half of 2025, the market showed distinct trends, with significant appreciation in Chinese assets, particularly the North Star 50 index rising by 38.7% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 21% [1]. - Safety remains a key consideration for many investors, as evidenced by a 24.7% increase in London gold prices and strong performance in bank stocks within the A-share market [2]. - Traditional industries like coal and real estate are experiencing declining returns, aligning with the broader trend of industrial transformation [2]. - Thematic investments in sectors such as robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military technology reflect the evolution of dominant industries, driven by technological advancements rather than policy catalysts [2][4]. - The U.S. equity market is undergoing a complex head formation, with significant adjustments in tech stocks due to macroeconomic pressures, including high inflation and debt concerns [2][4]. External Variables Impacting the Market - A notable decrease in global risk premiums has been observed, attributed to the stabilization of geopolitical tensions and the emergence of a Nash equilibrium in U.S.-China negotiations [6]. - The U.S. debt pressure has eased, with the passage of legislation aimed at stabilizing the stablecoin market, which is expected to enhance demand for U.S. Treasury securities [7]. - The likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has increased, although the Fed remains cautious due to inflation concerns stemming from trade tensions [8]. - Technology continues to be a focal point in global competition, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, with AI advancements being a critical area of investment interest [9]. Future Outlook - The trend of global asset reallocation remains unchanged, driven by persistent high U.S. interest rates and fiscal deficits, leading to a gradual outflow of capital from dollar-denominated assets [11]. - Tactical asset allocation will continue to focus on technology, with particular attention to advancements in autonomous driving and brain-computer interfaces, as well as expanding markets in China [11]. - Divergence in investor sentiment regarding gold is increasing, influenced by the rise of stablecoins and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which may diminish gold's traditional safe-haven appeal [12].

Group 1 - Indonesia has recently completed a $5.9 billion electric vehicle battery center funded by China, symbolizing the close relationship between China and Indonesia [1] - Indonesia's Economic Coordinating Minister, Airlangga, has proposed a joint investment in rare earth mineral projects with the United States, indicating a shift in strategy amidst economic pressures [1][3] - The U.S. imposed a 32% "reciprocal tariff" on Indonesia, prompting the country to seek exemptions through cooperation with the U.S. [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. has rich rare earth resources but lacks the technology for extraction and processing, while Indonesia possesses 2.8 million tons of rare earth resources but also lacks mature refining capabilities [3][4] - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern technology, including smartphones and electric vehicles, making them a focal point in U.S.-China relations [3][4] - Japan is also attempting to challenge China's dominance in rare earths by planning to start deep-sea mineral resource extraction by 2026, although it faces significant technical and cost challenges [3][4] Group 3 - The complexity of the global rare earth supply chain is highlighted by the interwoven interests and geopolitical struggles among nations, with both Indonesia's and Japan's efforts reflecting anxiety over China's dominance [4][6] - Indonesia's strategy to escape U.S. tariff threats may not be wise without addressing technological and market gaps [6] - The situation serves as a reminder for China to focus on technological accumulation and industry chain improvement to maintain competitive advantages in international trade [6][7] Group 4 - The rare earth issue represents not only a technological and market competition but also a clash of national will and strategic positioning [7] - The evolving global economic landscape will determine which nations can navigate the challenges and emerge successfully in the ongoing geopolitical contest over rare earth resources [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from Zhonghui Futures indicates that the short-term focus for copper prices should be within the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan, with a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global copper supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Changjiang Futures expects copper prices to operate in the range of 78,500 to 81,000 yuan in the short term, suggesting a cautious approach to holding long positions due to potential demand suppression from rising prices and ongoing tariff uncertainties [1][2] - Guantong Futures anticipates a slow upward trend in copper prices amidst a volatile market, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and uncertain tariff policies, while also considering the tight supply of copper and weak U.S. economic data [2] Group 2 - The recent performance of copper futures shows a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 80,760.00 yuan and closing at 80,640.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The macroeconomic sentiment appears to be improving, with the U.S. copper premium over London copper expanding, although concerns about seasonal demand and tariff uncertainties may continue to exert pressure on prices [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption on July 9 is expected to reignite tariff negotiations, adding to the uncertainty in the copper market [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 通胀回落，美国降息预期增加，但是关税风险、地缘局势在上周减少，黄金价 | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 格震荡调整，中长期不确定性仍然较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配 置。【760-790】 | | | | 白银逻辑变化不大，基本金属在未来经济政策刺激下有支撑。目前，金银比价 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 目前回归正常区间，盘面关注 8700 附近表现，考虑到白银的品种特性弹性较大， | | | | 操作上做好仓位控制。【8600-8900】 | | | | 特朗普关税再次施压，铜围绕 8 万关口震荡盘整，建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 可逢高止盈兑现，警惕铜高位回落风险，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【78500，81000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅累库，国内消费淡季，需求走弱，锌反弹 | | | | 承压，窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22200， | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have highlighted China's export control on the rare earth element samarium, which is crucial for advanced military technologies, raising concerns in the global defense industry [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Dependency - China accounts for approximately 87% of the global supply of samarium, with Lockheed Martin indicating that each F-35 fighter jet requires 1.2 kg of samarium-cobalt permanent magnets, essential for radar and missile guidance systems [1]. - New export license regulations from China have led to a situation where U.S. military-grade samarium-cobalt permanent magnet inventories can only sustain production needs for about six months, indicating a potential supply chain crisis [1]. - Despite efforts to rebuild the rare earth supply chain through the Inflation Reduction Act, the cost of producing military-grade samarium in California is 3.2 times higher than that of similar products from China [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements and Challenges - The Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute in China has made breakthroughs in samarium-iron-nitride magnet technology, increasing energy density by 40% compared to traditional samarium-cobalt materials, complicating U.S. efforts to find technological alternatives [3]. - A significant 83% of rare earth material suppliers in the existing military certification system are still from China, creating a challenging dependency for U.S. defense contractors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Impact - From January to August 2024, China's rare earth exports to the U.S. decreased by 29%, while the export price increased by 18%, indicating a strategic control over the U.S. military-industrial complex [5]. - General Dynamics in Texas has postponed the mass production of the "Abrams X" tank due to a shortage of samarium materials, which has affected the turret gyroscope standards [5]. - The limited supply strategy employed by China poses a more significant threat to U.S. military production capabilities than a complete embargo [5]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The competition over rare earth elements reflects a broader restructuring of power within global supply chains, as China leverages its technological patents and resource reserves to create new trade barriers [7]. - The ongoing silent struggle between the U.S. and China over rare earth elements is expected to profoundly influence the balance of military technology over the next decade [7].

正信期货铜月报202506 投资咨询号:Z0016959 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 内容要点 宏观层面：6月铜价继续横盘整理，价格缺少方向，博弈也并不激烈，波动率继续回落。需求季节性转 淡尚未完全体现，但关税问题的再发酵，对于悬而未决的铜市场来说通过贸易套利和库存转移再度支撑 起了铜价，尤其是月底LME铜现货升贴水走势异常，出现了自2021年逼仓式的高升水，宏观层面并未有 新驱动产生，美国"硬数据"尚可，但美联储按兵不动，唯一变化在于特朗普提前物色下一任美联储主 席，引发市场对降息的乐观预期。关注7月的美国就业数据变化和关税谈判进展是宏观预期驱动可能出 现变化的地方。 产业基本面：年中长单谈判以0美元落地，冶炼厂长单盈利能力大幅受挫，当前国内产量维持高位， 硫酸与副产品利润勉强弥补亏损，但利润结构极不健康。需求一端来看，国内淡季逐渐加深，现货升水 高位回落，但受内外价差影响，国内出口量增多导致累库预期不强，基本面能给到 ...

48小时内，特朗普2次对日本强硬表态。 就日美汽车贸易而言，日方数据显示，去年日本对美国的出口总额达21万亿日元（约合1400 亿美元） 中，约6万亿日元（约占30%）来自汽车及零部件产品。美方数据显示，美国2024年汽车销量约为1600万 辆，而日本车企贡献了其中约130万辆，另有40万辆在墨西哥生产。 在距离7月8日美方所谓"对等关税"大限仅剩一周之际，日美关税谈判再生变数。 据新华社报道，6月29日，美国总统特朗普在接受媒体公开采访时直言美日贸易"不公平"。仅仅一天之 后，特朗普又在社交媒体上批评日本，威胁将对日本征收新关税，理由是日本拒绝接受美国出口的大 米。 在特朗普抱怨日美贸易不公平的同时，日美之间已进行了七轮部长级关税谈判。然而，这一系列谈判并 未使得日美在达成协议方面取得实质性进展。 此前，美方已放出谈判或延期的消息。当地时间6月27日，特朗普称截止日期有灵活性，美财长贝森特则 暗示谈判可能延至9月。此前，白宫计划与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议。 从汽车到大米 根据公开信息，特朗普近日对日美贸易的不满主要集中在汽车与大米两大领域。6月29日，特朗普表 示，"日本将不得不支付25%的汽车关税""他 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 市场分析 2025年6月30日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于63460元/吨，收于62260元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.77%。当 日成交量为389727手，持仓量为330824手，较前一交易日减少10624手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳960 元/吨。所有合约总持仓596987手，较前一交易日减少18035手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日降低296883手，成 交量494672，整体投机度为0.83。当日碳酸锂仓单22628手，较上个交易日增加630手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月30日电池级碳酸锂报价6.05-6.21万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.92-6.02万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.015万元/吨。根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、 下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部 分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，受期货盘面影响，现货也有所走强，但基本面并未改善。 策略 反弹后套保意愿较高，碳酸锂盘面走弱 跨品种：无 ...

今日周二（7月1日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于8707一线下方，今日开盘于8737元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报8714元/千克，下跌0.01%，最高触及8763元/千克，最低下探8706元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 哥伦比亚与美国围绕移民遣返问题引发的贸易争端虽已平息，其后续影响仍在哥伦比亚花卉产业持续发 酵。特朗普政府时期签署的"对等关税"行政令，犹如悬在拉美国家头顶的达摩克利斯之剑，至今仍深刻 影响着两国经贸关系。 作为全球第二大花卉出口国，哥伦比亚80%的鲜花跨越加勒比漂往美国市场。这个创造超20万个就业岗 位的"鲜花王国"，其产业命脉正被10%的新增关税悄然扼紧。当特朗普于2019年4月挥动关税大棒时， 巴扎尼种植园的玫瑰花瓣上，已然凝结着国际贸易博弈的寒霜。 "关税最终由谁承担？"这个直指产业链核心的诘问，道破了花农们的集体焦虑。在种植端，土地租赁、 种子化肥、人工运输等刚性成本已蚕食大部分利润空间，10%的额外税负几乎等同于企业生存线的临界 值。更严峻的是，当美国进口商将关税转嫁要求时，这些靠天吃饭的农业经营者根本无力承接这份"意 外支出"。 转机来自 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-07-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆季度报告多空交织，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关 税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升，美豆带动和技术 性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回归区间震 荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-131，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存69.16万吨，上周50.89万吨，环比增加35.9%，去年同期105.3万吨， 同比减少34.32%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流出，偏 ...