Group 1: Conference Overview - The CITIC Futures 2025 Mid-Year Strategy Conference was held on June 25, 2025, in Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Riding the Wind and Breaking the Waves" [1] - The conference featured one main forum and ten sub-forums, covering macroeconomics, equity, bonds, commodities, exchange rates, asset management, OTC derivatives, and overseas markets [1] Group 2: Keynote Speeches - CITIC Futures Chairman Dou Changhong emphasized the company's commitment to high-quality industrial services and the globalization of futures business [2] - Fudan University Professor Shen Guobing discussed the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Sino-U.S. trade, highlighting the challenges of trade fragmentation, geopolitical conflicts, and climate crises [3] - Yang Delong, Chief Economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, noted that U.S. stocks are in a high valuation phase, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are attracting significant foreign investment [4] Group 3: Market Outlooks - CITIC Futures Vice President Zeng Ning provided an outlook on the macro and commodity markets, indicating that the real estate sector will continue to drag down commodity demand for 1-2 years [5] - The Financial Forum discussed the shift from tariff-driven to dollar-driven macro themes, with a focus on structural allocation in A-shares [6] - The Nonferrous Forum highlighted the influence of U.S. trade policies on the market, with basic metals expected to remain strong despite macro uncertainties [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The Agricultural Forum indicated that many agricultural products are facing price declines due to high supply, with potential supply contractions in the future [9] - The Black Forum discussed the cyclical downturn in construction steel demand, while the coal and coke markets face long-term pressure [10] - The Energy Transition Forum addressed the oversupply pressures in both traditional and new energy sectors, with coal and natural gas markets expected to face challenges [11][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The Asset Management Forum explored the innovative use of derivatives in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of risk management tools [15] - The Chemical Forum discussed the relationship between refined oil and chemical products, with a focus on market dynamics and potential investment opportunities [14] Group 6: Conclusion - The conference successfully provided a platform for sharing insights and strategies, reinforcing CITIC Futures' commitment to compliance, integrity, professionalism, and responsibility in the industry [16]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期地缘风险降温，美国大豆产区天气状况持续改善，美豆期价呈现明显的天气市波动特征， 美豆期价重心有所下移。国内豆类市场交易逻辑未变，跟随外盘美豆期价波动节奏，短期资金出现松动加 剧盘面波动，期价震荡偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 偏 ...

Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork reached 9,288 heads (712.55 tons), an increase of 2.85% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 16.02 yuan/kg, down 0.5%, while the average wholesale price of pork was 18.57 yuan/kg, down 0.75% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts decreased, with prices for pork loin at 34.92 yuan/kg (down 1.33%), pork hind leg at 28.71 yuan/kg (down 2.74%), and pork belly at 38.91 yuan/kg (down 3.85%) [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables was 3,415.86 tons, an increase of 10.64%, with local vegetables up 14.16% and out-of-province vegetables up 7.77% [2] - The overall average wholesale price of vegetables was 3.68 yuan/kg, down 1.08%, with significant price increases for cabbage (up 10.69%) and winter melon (up 4.76%) [2] - Notable price decreases included small bok choy at 2.12 yuan/kg (down 7.83%) and eggplant at 5.2 yuan/kg (down 6.47%) [2] Group 3: Aquatic Products Market - The total trading volume of aquatic products was 3,369.35 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 481.34 tons, up 3.83% from the previous week [3] - The overall average wholesale price of aquatic products was 41.77 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.37%, with significant price increases for grass carp (up 21.65%) and crucian carp (up 19.48%) [3] - Retail prices for aquatic products showed mixed results, with an overall average of 61.09 yuan/kg, down 1.85%, and notable decreases for pomfret (down 21.11%) and hairtail (down 19.08%) [3]

Meeting Overview - The sixth session of the 14th Supervisory Board meeting of Jiangsu Baoli International Investment Co., Ltd. was held on June 25, 2025, with all three supervisors present [1] - The meeting was conducted in accordance with the Company Law of the People's Republic of China and the company's articles of association [1] Voting Results - The meeting approved the proposal for the company to engage in commodity and foreign exchange hedging business, with a unanimous vote of 3 in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [1] - The Supervisory Board believes that engaging in hedging business will help mitigate adverse impacts from price and exchange rate fluctuations on the company's operations, aligning with relevant regulations [1] Additional Proposals - A proposal for the company to purchase directors and officers liability insurance was also discussed, with all supervisors abstaining from voting, resulting in 0 votes for, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [2] - The Supervisory Board views this insurance as beneficial for enhancing the company's risk management system and protecting the rights of directors, supervisors, and senior management [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese real estate market has long been troubled by high housing prices, the pre-sale system, and shared area issues, with the pre-sale system being particularly criticized for leading to unfinished buildings and poor quality, causing significant economic risks for buyers and damaging market confidence [1][3] - The pre-sale system was introduced in the 1990s to stimulate development and meet housing demand, but its drawbacks have become increasingly apparent, prompting the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to propose the concept of "selling existing houses" in early 2023, with several cities initiating pilot programs [3][5] - Many industry experts, including Peking University professor Yao Yang, believe that now is an opportune time to abolish the pre-sale system, arguing that buyers' lack of confidence presents a chance to guide the market towards healthier development [3][5] Group 2 - Opponents of abolishing the pre-sale system express concerns that it may restrict financing channels for developers, potentially leading to bankruptcies among small and medium-sized developers and a significant reduction in the supply of new homes, which could drive up housing prices [5] - However, the argument for abolishing the pre-sale system is strong, as it could effectively prevent unfinished buildings and protect buyers' rights, allowing them to inspect properties before purchase, thereby compelling developers to improve construction quality [5] - Current data from the Ministry of Housing indicates that China has over 600 million existing housing units, which is sufficient to meet the needs of its 1.4 billion population, suggesting that abolishing the pre-sale system could promote healthier market development and enhance buyers' living experiences and market confidence [5]

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 螺纹--基差 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-0 ...

Core Points - The article highlights the successful implementation of a housing selection event in Nansha, where villagers are satisfied with the process and the government incentives provided [1][5][7] - A total of 43 housing units were selected on June 22, with significant participation from local villagers [4] - The event is part of a broader urban renewal initiative aimed at providing quality living spaces for residents [9][10] Group 1 - The housing selection event was organized with a "first sign, first apply, first select" approach, allowing residents to exchange their designated housing for existing commercial properties [1][5] - The government has introduced various incentives for residents who sign contracts before specific deadlines, including monetary rewards and property management benefits [8] - The selected housing units are located in a well-developed area with access to quality amenities and scenic views, enhancing the living experience for residents [9][12] Group 2 - Residents who have signed contracts can move in immediately without the need for temporary relocations, streamlining the transition to new homes [12] - The initiative aims to provide high-quality living spaces comparable to commercial properties, reducing the waiting time for traditional housing solutions [12] - The event has generated positive feedback from participants, indicating a strong community interest in the urban renewal project [7][10]

随着地缘局势缓和，油价持续回落，相关化工品也继续走弱，今日国内商品市场SC原油主力合约收跌8.13%，高硫燃油主力合约收跌5.96%，液化气及LU主 力合约也均跌超2%。由于地缘局势不确定性带来的供应中断的担忧减弱，盘面在供过于求的基本面预期下大幅回落。不过，光大期货也表示，目前地缘因 素尚未完全消退，在美国对伊朗的制裁未解除的情况下，市场仍对原油供应存在担忧情绪，短期油价回调幅度或相对有限。而从基本面来看，截至6月20日 当周，美国API原油库存减少423万桶，馏分油库存减少103万桶，汽油库存增加76.4万桶。原油库存延续下跌态势，说明旺季需求尚可，一定程度上支撑短 期油价。中长期来看，随着OPEC+增产及特朗普催促国内页岩油增产，叠加高关税抑制全球需求，油价仍有回落可能。 截至25日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1374.19点，较前一交易日下跌16.51点，跌幅1.19%；中证商品期货指数收报1905.21点，较前一交易日下跌 22.89点，跌幅1.19%。 尿素反弹近2.5% 红枣触及近四个月新高 上周五以来连续调整的尿素25日增仓拉涨。截至收盘时，尿素主力合约以2.47%的涨幅强势领涨当天商品 ...

有色金属领域，海外低库存和宏观预期不稳背景下，企业坚持严格套保为宜，避免过多风险敞口暴露。 新能源金属领域，供需过剩仍然存在，需求有下滑预期，冶炼端紧跟利润修复抓住卖保机会。黑色建材 领域，炉料端下半年压力仍在，焦煤供给以及上游库存依然偏空，同时铁矿石产能释放，将从成本端继 续拖累钢材，建议对产业链品种进行卖出保值。能化领域，下半年抢出口后需求增速下降，供给端仍然 面临新产能投放及闲置产能较大的困境，建议企业及时进行利润锁定。农业领域，政策调控生猪供应节 奏，生猪供应压力仍在，关注行业利润锁定机会。农产品普遍丰产，棕榈油、棉花、白糖关注高位套保 机会。饲料年度丰产不变，但进口政策变化及下游需求支撑，豆粕玉米关注买入保值。 2025年宏观形势复杂多变，全球经贸格局面临深刻变革。尽管面临国际贸易环境波动、工业品价格低 迷、房地产市场疲软等诸多挑战，中国经济以战略定力锚定高质量发展。政策协同发力、产业多元发 展、内需稳步提振、创新不断增强，中国经济展现出了强劲的韧性。 王稹表示，在市场节奏和风格快速切换的环境中，中信期货研究所将继续深入挖掘各类产业客户的研究 需求，加强市场分析、趋势研判与风险管理方案的结合，积极服 ...

近日，中信期货研究所所长王稹在"中信期货2025年中策略会"发表演讲并接受期货日报专访。王稹表 示，2025年宏观形势复杂多变，全球经贸秩序正在重构。尽管面临中美贸易摩擦、工业品价格低迷、房 地产市场疲软等诸多挑战，中国经济凭借政策的协同发力、多元的产业结构、稳定的内需支撑及不断增 强的创新能力，叠加"抢出口"和"抢转口"，展现出了强劲的韧性。 大宗商品压力与机遇并存 前瞻研究重要性提升 王稹分析，大宗商品行业在压力与机遇并存的态势下前行，如黄金表现出长期配置价值，工业品中的原 油和铜的边际驱动走向分化。他特别提到，上半年，各种不确定性因素加大了国内期货品种的价格波 动，实体企业的风险管理面临更加复杂的研判环境。因此，王稹强调，在市场节奏和风格快速切换的环 境中，期货研究更需与时俱进、前瞻布局。 研究策略升级 构建"双向"研究能力 为了适应错综复杂的内外部环境，王稹认为，期货公司需要持续优化研究布局与综合分析体系，着力构 建"双向"研究能力。 一是提升"从宏观看期货"的能力。中信期货研究所今年上半年加强了国际贸易与航运、新兴行业与商品 等研究，深化了全球产业布局与结构、国内外价格联动及策略等多维度分析。二是提 ...