半年度报告——棉花 估值蛰伏，震荡未央 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 棉花：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 30 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 棉花基本面分析及行情展望 国际：根据气候模型及天气展望，今年天气题材的炒作空间预 计不大，供应面料难以掀起大的波澜；而需求面存在较大不确 定性，贸易战令需求前景蒙阴，未来贸易政策变数犹存，宏观 及需求或为盘面波动的主导因素。根据 CFTC 的持仓，25/26 年 度全球供应偏松的格局或已被市场反应，且美棉供需可能不会 比 24/25 年度更松，ICE 棉价下方空间有限，但目前也看不到 有力的向上驱动题材，预计下半年维持低位震荡格局，预估运 行区间 65-80 美分/磅，关注产地天气、贸易政策及宏观动态。 国内：1）9 月合约：陈作供应偏紧的担忧将支撑盘面，但下游 纺织淡季、产业形势低迷；若价格持续上涨或令大户手中的高 成本资源能逐步释放一些，并可能引发调控政策的出台。再加 上美对等关税暂停期将 ...

以下文章来源于教你挖掘基 ，作者冰姐 教你挖掘基 . 投资理财有方法，我们手把手教你挖掘牛基~ 时光飞逝，仿佛须臾之间，我们挥手作别了2025年上半年。 这半年间： 从特朗普政府的关税政策反复摇摆，到海外地缘政治争端一波未平一波又起，从DeepSeek以惊人效率突破AI算力封锁，到全球资金开始了新一轮的迁 徙，大类资产的投资图景正在经历一场悄无声息的重构。 下一站，多元资产配置——在这个经济全球化遭遇逆风、技术革命"起于青萍之末"的时代，投资者需要的不是预测风暴的能力，而是在风暴中 保持航向的定力。 01 混沌之中的上半年 ——全球资金再平衡实录 翻开大类资产上半年的成绩单，"资金盛与资产荒"精准勾勒了其间的市场底色。 海内外的流动性如同潮水，却在现实世界中似乎找不到足够的优质资产停泊。 在此背景之下，"确定性"资产迎来狂欢， 黄金 成为了明星选手。 相较于南华商品指数的整体收跌，国际现货黄金26%的涨幅背后，是地缘冲突与美元信用松动的双重叙事。 从贸易争端阴云未散，到中东局势骤然生变，黄金的避险属性被无限放大，但更深远的力量来自全球央行持续增持——预计2025年购买量将达 1000吨。中国央行更是连续第7个 ...

研究报告 玉米周报 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 震荡中分化：供应收缩与需求博弈 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周初，国内玉米期货主力合约 c2509 冲高至 2420 元/吨后回落，随 后几日进行回调，截至上周五收盘，报 2384 元/吨，较前日涨幅 0.21%。 研究员：刘维新 CBOT 玉米 09 合约报收 411.25 美分/蒲式耳,较前周下跌 12.25 美分， 跌幅 2.90%，创 2024 年 10 月以来新低。 截至上周五，东北市场鲅鱼圈二等玉米价格参考 2400 元/吨，较前周 上涨 20 元/吨；锦州港二等玉米价格参考 2380 元/吨，较前周持平。华北 市场山东寿光深加工玉米价格参考 2510 元/吨，较前周价格上调 30 元/吨， 创年内新高。销区市场广西蛇口港东北二等玉米主流价格参考 2440-2470 元/吨，较前周基 ...

世科端粒编程实验室科研团队历经76周攻关，运用抑制NK细胞激活信号、增强抑制性信号、代谢重组 编程等技术，采用天然成分和补充剂相结合制成口服食用营养补充剂。该产品在动物实验基础上经45- 65岁共586人的临床试验取得成功，该补充剂在抗衰防癌和抵抗阿尔茨海默症等方面有显著的积极影 响。哈佛抗衰防癌研究中心临床实验数据显示，连续服用24周后，人体自源性NK细胞数量在原有基础 上增长17.5%-23.7%，平均增长率达到21.3%，通过结合生物标志物检测与个性化干预，实现精准免疫 调节。目前，世科端粒编程实验室和哈佛抗衰防癌研究中心己将"去能激活"Nk细胞的营养补充剂相关 科研成果申报国际发明专利进行保护。 在此背景下，"去能激活"NK细胞技术成为全球科研热点。"去能激活"NK细胞(Functional Modulation NK Cells)是指通过特定手段降低过度活跃或功能失调的NK细胞的活性，使其恢复免疫平衡。因为NK细胞 不足会增加癌症与病毒感染风险，而过度活跃又会引发免疫和组织损伤，所以维持其动态平衡至关重 要。相较于外源性NK细胞存在的细胞变异、病毒感染等风险。通过口服食用营养补充剂激活人体自源 性N ...

Group 1 - The first half of 2025 has seen a significant rebalancing of global funds, characterized by a "funding boom and asset scarcity" [2][4] - Gold has emerged as a star asset, with a 26% increase in international spot gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts and a weakening dollar [5][37] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reaching 73.83 million ounces, indicating a collective move towards "de-dollarization" [5][37] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing volatility, with U.S. Treasury yields fluctuating above 4.0%, while China's 10-year government bond yields have dropped to a historical low of 1.65% [6][7] - Credit bond ETFs have rapidly gained popularity, with a total market size exceeding 210 billion yuan, reflecting a shift towards stable income assets [8] - The divergence in economic cycles between the U.S. and China is evident, with the U.S. experiencing a slowdown while China is bottoming out [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown resilience, with the Hang Seng Index leading global markets with a 20.5% increase, supported by liquidity from southbound funds [10] - The A-share market has seen strong sector rotation, particularly in the AI industry and consumer sectors, indicating a lack of a consistent overarching theme [11][15] - The current market is driven by liquidity, with expectations of a stabilization in earnings, suggesting a potential return to value-based investing [15] Group 4 - Three key underlying logics have emerged in the market: the continuous rise of certainty premiums, the revaluation of industrial narratives, and the rebalancing of global asset allocation [16][19] - The demand for certainty is reflected in the strong performance of gold and high-dividend assets, as investors seek visible cash flows amid macro uncertainties [17] - The AI industry is transitioning from concept to performance, with significant growth in cloud business revenues and capital expenditures among leading tech firms [18] Group 5 - The outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025 emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation amid increasing market volatility [23][24] - A diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, with a focus on both undervalued, high-dividend value stocks and growth sectors driven by AI [27][28] - The U.S. stock market faces risks from high valuations and downward adjustments in earnings expectations, necessitating caution [32]

Core Insights - The 2025 RoBoLeague robot football league finals marked a significant event in the realm of AI-driven robotics, showcasing the capabilities of fully autonomous robots in a competitive environment [1][2] - The event featured four teams, with Tsinghua University's Huoshen team winning the championship, demonstrating advanced motion control and decision-making abilities [1][2] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The robots utilized AI strategies for autonomous operation, eliminating the need for human intervention, and showcased the ability to recover from falls within 2.8 seconds [1][2] - The competition introduced an optimized penalty mechanism, reducing interruptions and enhancing the flow and intensity of the matches [1][2] - The robots' capabilities in dynamic environment perception and multi-robot collaborative decision-making are expected to extend beyond sports into industrial applications such as inspection and emergency rescue [3] Group 2: Industry Implications - The event serves as a testing ground for technological breakthroughs in humanoid robotics, with potential applications in various fields, including sports, industrial, and domestic environments [2][3] - Companies like Galaxy General, Accelerated Evolution, and others are leading advancements in humanoid robotics, focusing on different technological dimensions and receiving continuous capital support [3] - The increasing presence of humanoid robots in sports since 2024 indicates a growing trend towards their integration into everyday tasks, enhancing their role as "intelligent partners" in various sectors [3]

证券代码：003038 证券简称：鑫铂股份 施的推动下，整个光伏行业正在加速实现再平衡，到今年第三或第四季度应 该能够出现好转。 问题 4：公司成立安徽睿铂智动机器人有限公司的背景和未来规划是什么？ 答：首先公司董事长唐开健先生在上市之后就关注机器人赛道，尤其是看重 通过使用机器人对公司生产效率提升和成本下降带来的显著效果，在 2023 年个人参股了一家专注打磨这个细分赛道的机器人公司，具有较高的技术壁 垒，同时这家机器人公司也于 2025 年并购一家专注于传感器的企业。结合 上述情况，公司与一家专注于精密零部件及永磁电机等行业的公司合资成立 安徽睿铂智动机器人有限公司，专注于拓展人形机器人关节模组等相关业 务。目前正处于产品研发和测试中。 安徽鑫铂铝业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 问题 5：公司马来西亚工厂规划产能和投产节奏如何？ 编号：2025-003 | | 特定对象调研分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | | ☐媒体采访☐业绩说明会 | | 投资者关系活 动类别 | □新闻发布会☐路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | 长江证券、广 ...

近日，十四届全国人大常委会第十六次会议表决通过新修订的《治安管理处罚法》（以下简称新法）， 共6章144条，自2026年1月1日起施行。 在三审激烈讨论期间，《治安管理处罚法修订草案》对特定严重违法未成年人依法执行拘留的条款是否 会保留，引起了全国各地公检法人员及专门教育人员的高度关注。 失控的循环：看似宽容，实则纵容 提及这个话题，S省Z市的民警小贡分享了一个"拘留不执行"导致"抓了放、放了抓"从小错到大恶的典型 案例。 Z市当地少年小凯从12岁起便频繁盗窃，因未达刑责年龄，公安机关只能批评教育后交家长管教。但因 其父母常年在外务工，管教形同虚设。在小凯12至15岁的三年内，他因盗窃、打架被派出所传唤、训诫 高达二十余次，成为当地派出所的"常客"。 "每次苦口婆心地感化教育，换来的是对方对民警越来越变本加厉的蔑视和挑衅。"对红线的麻木最终酿 成大祸——15岁的小凯因琐事将一名同龄人砍成重伤。他的犯罪经历，清晰地勾勒出一条因早期干预失 效、惩戒缺位而导致恶劣行径逐渐升级的"罪错曲线"。 审讯期间，小凯无知又麻木地说："反正一抓又放出来了。" 实际上，自2020年《刑法修正案》第十一 条将刑事责任年龄的起点降至 ...

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/30 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 | 指标 | | 6月27日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -26 | -70 | 2500 г 2000 | =====19/20 -----20/21 -----21/22 ------22/23 -- 23/24 | | 24/25 | | | 天津 | -66 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | 日照 | -106 | -10 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -126 | -50 | -500 | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 10/22 | 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market has experienced a significant decline in risk premium due to easing geopolitical tensions, particularly following the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, which has reduced concerns over supply disruptions [1][3]. Supply Side Changes - The global crude oil supply landscape is undergoing subtle adjustments, with OPEC+ members showing differing compliance with production cuts, particularly Iraq and Kazakhstan exceeding their quotas, undermining the overall effectiveness of the reduction policy [4]. - The continuous growth of U.S. shale oil production, driven by technological advancements and cost control, is adding new variables to global supply, while non-OPEC oil-producing countries are also expanding their capacities, contributing to upward pressure on supply [4]. - OPEC+ faces challenges not only from external competition but also from increasing internal coordination difficulties, as core members like Saudi Arabia must balance price stability with market share [4]. Demand Outlook - Global economic slowdown is exerting substantial pressure on crude oil demand, with weak manufacturing activity and sluggish transportation fuel consumption in major economies [5]. - China's economic restructuring and energy transition are suppressing traditional oil demand, while the rapid development of renewable energy technologies is altering long-term energy consumption patterns, reducing reliance on fossil fuels [5]. - Seasonal factors are also impacting current demand, as the end of the summer driving season leads to a decline in gasoline consumption, compounded by cyclical adjustments in industrial production [5].