投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-11 资金情绪快速推涨胶价 油脂：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空 蛋⽩粕：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹 ⽟⽶/淀粉：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调 橡㬵：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 合成橡㬵：盘面跟随上涨 纸浆：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高 棉花：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强 ⽩糖：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限 原⽊：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：资⾦情绪快速推涨㬵价 逻辑：天胶方面前一日夜盘大幅拉涨，昨日继续小幅走高，整体情绪偏 强。我们认为更多是受到资金情绪的影响，即近期商品市场多头情绪浓 厚，在有反内卷主题与个别有仓单矛盾的品种带头快速拉涨后，橡胶作为 前期没有跟涨的品种估值相对偏低，因此受到了资金的青睐。且当前市场 处于强预期的氛围当中，橡胶作为与宏观强关联的品种，补涨也是相对合 理。橡胶自身基本面短期也暂无大矛盾，是一个等待新变量出现的时间 点。供给端来说，亚洲大部分产区均处于雨季影响当中，原料价格小幅反 弹上涨。不过由于过去一个多月产地受降雨影响 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/11 棉花：棉花库存数据下降过快，以此计算的表需较高，若这样下去，季末去库不可避免，带动近期棉价上行，不过上方仍有套保盘压制，同时 下游订单、利润和开机均较弱，对高棉价接受度也有限，建议对本轮上涨持谨慎态度。若需求进一步恶化或出现宏观风险，棉价或进一步下 行，若均没有，将持续在目前位置震荡。 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 | 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/07/04 | - | 2330 | 2450 | 2460 | -23 | 0 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 128 | -66 | | 2025/07/07 | - | 2320 | 2420 | 2460 | -6 | 10 | 423 | 2850 | 2950 | 165 | -6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emotional value and its significance in relationships, particularly focusing on the male perspective and the societal expectations that discourage emotional expression [1][15][21]. Group 1: Emotional Value in Relationships - Emotional value is often overlooked by men, who may not see the worth in providing emotional support or connection [10][12]. - The article suggests that men tend to avoid expressing their emotional needs due to societal pressures that equate vulnerability with weakness [13][15]. - Women, in contrast, are portrayed as more adept at expressing their emotional needs and seeking support from friends and family, which contributes to their overall well-being [17][18]. Group 2: Consequences of Ignoring Emotional Needs - Ignoring emotional needs can lead to various physical and mental health issues, such as sleep disorders and emotional numbness [21][24]. - The article highlights that a lack of emotional connection can result in a "robotic" existence, where individuals function without genuine emotional engagement [25][26]. - The importance of maintaining emotional connections is emphasized, as it contributes to a fulfilling life and better relationships with others [27][28].

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant upward trend in gold prices during the day, indicating a strong market movement [1] - It mentions the acceleration of US-EU tariff negotiations, which could impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1] - The article suggests that the trend during the European trading session is being closely monitored, with live updates provided by a team member [1]

美元反弹未破阻力，黄金反弹再回落，未站上心理关口？现在看涨风险是否过高？点击查看详细分析！ 相关链接 黄金支撑减弱，避险行情再启？ ...

注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） | 传媒 | -0.06 | 390.13 | 8.44 | ST华通 | -4.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纺织服饰 | -0.16 | 120.60 | -12.56 | 际华集团 | -6.24 | | 银行 | -0.46 | 432.15 | 20.70 | 浙商银行 | -2.37 | | 建筑材料 | -0.76 | 150.03 | -4.06 | 再升科技 | -9.89 | 今日各行业表现（截至下午13:59） 证券时报·数据宝统计，截至下午13:59，今日沪指涨0.64%，A股成交量1135.33亿股，成交金额13879.35 亿元，比上一个交易日增加18.38%。个股方面，3231只个股上涨，其中涨停62只，1904只个股下跌， 其中跌停8只。从申万行业来看，非银金融、计算机、有色金属等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.51%、 2.21%、2.08%；建筑材料、银行、纺织服饰等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为0.76%、0.46%、0.16%。（数据 宝） ...

美国最新通过的减税与支出法案预期将为经济带来额外财政刺激。而就业市场稳健，家庭消费意愿持续 强劲，反映对商品与服务的稳定需求。尽管美股目前估值偏高，且市场已悄然下调盈利预测，贸易关税 不确定性仍构成潜在风险。惟投资者应密切留意美国经济会否出现'金发女孩情境'——即政策刺激有效 推动经济，且不引发通胀压力，从而让美联储有空间重启减息周期。 欧洲方面，欧洲央行利率已接近中性水平，除非经济进一步恶化，否则进一步减息空间有限。欧盟与美 国的贸易谈判持续，未来几个月的财政政策走向亦将对宏观经济格局产生深远影响，特别是在国防支出 预期大幅上升的背景下。 亚太区方面，美元走弱为亚洲及新兴市场创造投资机会。在货币升值带动下，这些市场的总回报表现更 为亮眼。加上亚太区整体货币环境趋向宽松，印度、澳洲及泰国加快减息步伐，而中国台湾省则因新台 币升值而出现相对紧缩的金融状况。日本内需稳健、企业盈利强劲及相对吸引的估值为当地股市提供支 持。然而，出口价格下跌及汽车出口放缓等外部因素仍对整体表现构成压力。此外，投资者应留意市场 已推迟对加息的预期，但薪资上升及日元走强可能使日本央行难以转向鸽派立场，进而影响整体盈利前 景。" 香港强积 ...

Macro News - The main gold futures price in Shanghai reported at 774.36 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.41%. The opening price was 774.6 CNY per gram, with a high of 775.46 CNY and a low of 770.46 CNY [1] - Recent developments indicate that tariff negotiations between the US and Europe are accelerating, with the automotive sector being a key focus for the EU. Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro may request Trump to lift tariffs on Brazil, while current President Lula has stated that if negotiations with the US fail, reciprocal tariffs will be implemented. Chile is seeking exemption from US copper tariffs, and Vietnam has not agreed to Trump's proposed tariff increase from 11% to 20% [1] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated a consideration for interest rate cuts in the fall, with expectations of two cuts this year. There is no evidence of sustained tariff impacts on prices. The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in July is 92.8%, with a 7.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 29.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 65.4% [1] Institutional Views - As the deadline for tariff negotiations approaches, market risk aversion has slightly returned, allowing gold to demonstrate resilience. Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, providing support for precious metals. Overall, despite short-term market fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs is expected to lead to a rebound in inflation and economic slowdown, with the "Big and Beautiful" act likely exacerbating US debt and deficit issues. Therefore, support for precious metals is expected to remain resilient, continuing a high-level oscillation trend [1]

在当下的消费市场中，年轻人越来越愿意为"特爱有你仪式感"买单，这并非是一种简单的消费行为，而是一种情感与认同的深度表达。 仪式感，从来都不是一种空洞的形式，它是一种对生活细节的关注，是对情感的珍视。年轻人生活在一个快节奏的时代，日常的忙碌让他们渴望在某些特殊 的时刻，通过仪式感来赋予生活更多的意义。比如在纪念日、节日或重要的人生节点，一场精心策划的仪式，可以成为他们情感的寄托，让他们在平凡的日 子里感受到独特的价值。 "特爱有你仪式感"之所以吸引年轻人，是因为它契合了他们对个性化的追求。年轻人不再满足于千篇一律的消费模式，他们希望自己的每一次表达都能与众 不同。这种仪式感的消费，让他们能够以一种独特的方式，展示自己的情感和生活态度。无论是定制化的纪念品，还是精心设计的场景，都成为了他们表达 自我和个性的载体。 此外，年轻人对"特爱有你仪式感"的买单，也是一种对情感连接的渴望。在社交媒体高度发达的今天，年轻人通过分享这些仪式感的瞬间，与朋友、家人和 爱人建立更紧密的情感纽带。这种分享不仅是一种情感的传递，更是一种社交货币，它让他们在社交圈中获得认同感和归属感。 年轻人愿意为"特爱有你仪式感"买单，是因为它满足了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the stock prices of major securities firms, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][4]. - Major stocks such as Zhongyin Securities, Hatou Co., and Zhongyuan Securities reached their daily limit up, with increases of 10.04%, 10.00%, and 9.93% respectively [2][4]. - The A-share securities ETF (512000) experienced a price increase of 3.71%, with a trading volume exceeding 1.4 billion yuan, reflecting heightened trading enthusiasm [2][4]. Group 2 - Mid-year performance forecasts show promising results, with Hongta Securities expecting a net profit of 651 million to 696 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% to 55% [4]. - Guosheng Financial Holdings and Hatou Co. also reported strong profit growth, with Guosheng expecting a net profit of 150 million to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.85% to 394.05%, and Hatou projecting a net profit of approximately 380 million yuan, up 233.10% [4]. - Analysts from Galaxy Securities noted that government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and the stock market will continue to influence the sector's future trajectory, contributing to an optimistic outlook for the brokerage sector [4]. Group 3 - The brokerage ETF (512000) passively tracks the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index, encompassing 49 listed brokerage stocks, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten leading brokerages [5]. - The ETF serves as an efficient investment tool, balancing investments in leading brokerages while also capturing the high growth potential of smaller firms [5].