关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人| 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 6月27日统计局公布5月工企效益数据，工企营收累计同比2.7%、前值3.2%；利润累计同 比-1.1%、前值1.4%。5月末，产成品存货同比3.5%、前值3.9%。 核心观点： 利润大幅回落，主因成本、费用压力"双升"，短期利润修复不确定性仍较大。 5月利润增速出现大幅回落，主要源于成本、费用压力增大，同时营收对利润增速的贡献也有回落。 5 月，工业利润当月同比大幅回落11.9pct至9%。拆分结构看，利润率大幅回落主要是成本、费用压力增 大，后两者对整体利润同比的拖累分别上行6.5pct至-9.7%、5.9pct至-1.7%。营收方面，PPI跌破-3%的背 景下，实际营业收入对利润增速的支撑也有回落，当月同比下行1.2pct至4.2%，对整体利润增速的贡献回 落至3.4%。 常规跟踪： 工企利润率回落，拖累利润增速大幅下行。 利润：工企利润大幅回落，主要是利润率的拖累增加。 5月，工业企业利润当月同比下行12.1pct。分解 来看，利润率对工企的拖累加重，当月同比较上月回落10.1pct。量价贡献有所回落，工业增加值当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for n-butanol showed a trend of decline followed by a strong rebound in June, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and diverse market drivers, although future market corrections are anticipated as positive influences wane [1][9]. Supply and Demand Factors - In June, n-butanol prices initially fell but rebounded strongly in the latter half of the month, with prices reaching 6450-6450 RMB/ton by June 25, an increase of 200 RMB/ton from the monthly average and 275 RMB/ton from the lowest point during the month [1]. - The supply-demand situation improved, with market confidence, supply, and costs contributing positively to n-butanol prices [1]. Impact of Raw Materials - The average gross margin for the n-butanol industry fell below 8% in Q2, with a slight improvement in June, but absolute gross margins remained low [4]. - As of June 23, propylene prices rose to 6890-7000 RMB/ton, increasing n-butanol production costs by approximately 256 RMB/ton, which significantly compressed profit margins [4]. Market Sentiment and External Influences - The strong performance of crude oil prices in June, influenced by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, bolstered market confidence and reduced bearish sentiment towards n-butanol, despite the restart of several production facilities [3]. - The anticipated reduction in n-butanol supply from neighboring regions, particularly due to planned shutdowns in Taiwan, may alleviate pressure on the domestic market and create export opportunities [7]. Production and Operational Challenges - Unexpected fluctuations in production facilities in June led to a failure of the industry to meet previous inventory accumulation expectations, with reduced operational levels observed in several plants [6]. - The industry is expected to shift from inventory depletion to accumulation, with increased domestic production anticipated to counterbalance any reductions in imports [9][10].

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 跨季后，逆回购到期 2 万亿+ [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：央行加码呵护，跨季成本逐级攀升 6 月 23-27 日，跨季将至，虽然央行呵护力度接连提升，但是跨季资金成本还 是逐级上台阶。复盘本周资金市场，临近跨季，央行持续加码净投放力度，全周累 计净投放 12672 亿元，为今年以来单周净投放次高。与此同时，6 月中长期资金同 样超额投放，合计投放规模为 3180 亿元，高于 3 月跨季的 1630 亿元。 在央行持续净投放资金的背景下，隔夜利率平稳，DR001 全周基本围绕 1.37% 水平窄幅震荡；R001 除周五小幅升至 1.46%外，前四日同样基本稳定在 1.44%左 右。而跨季资金成本则持续攀升，DR007由周一的 1.51%逐日升至周五的 1.70%， R007 也由 1.56%大幅升至 1.92%。 ►展望：跨季后，流动性或将自发式宽松 往后看，下周一（6 月 30日）资金面将迎来最后考验，隔夜利率预计出现短期 冲高，2022- ...

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial Government has issued a plan to effectively reduce logistics costs across the society, aiming for significant improvements in transportation structure and logistics efficiency by 2027 [1][2]. Group 1: Logistics Cost Reduction Goals - By 2027, the railway freight volume and turnover ratio in Sichuan are targeted to reach 3.5% and approximately 32% respectively, with port container intermodal transport expected to grow by no less than 15% annually [1]. - The ratio of total social logistics costs to regional GDP is aimed to be reduced to around 13.7% [1]. Group 2: Key Measures and Support - The plan outlines 20 measures focusing on enhancing comprehensive transportation organization efficiency, strengthening the modern logistics industry, and improving logistics hubs and network [1][2]. - It emphasizes the need for financial, land, policy, and talent support to ensure the effective implementation of these measures [1]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Industry Collaboration - The plan highlights the importance of a complete supply chain system for cost reduction, proposing the "New Three Samples" logistics enhancement project tailored to Sichuan's characteristic industries [2]. - Initiatives include establishing efficient logistics channels for lithium batteries and supporting rapid customs clearance for new energy vehicles [2]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Network Development - The plan proposes optimizing logistics hub facilities and exploring integrated development of highway service areas and logistics [2]. - It aims to address gaps in the logistics network and enhance the capacity of key transport routes, including the Western Land-Sea New Corridor [2].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the rising popularity of low-cost entrepreneurial projects, particularly the "grass chicken egg cake" stores that have rapidly spread across major cities in China [1][10] - These stores are characterized by their simple and low-cost setup, with many entrepreneurs claiming to achieve quick returns on investment, such as recovering 50,000 yuan in just 10 days [13][14] - The marketing strategy employed by these stores often includes a "hunger marketing" approach, creating a sense of scarcity that drives customer demand and long queues [9][8] Group 2 - The article highlights the challenges faced by this booming market, including the limited supply of quality raw materials, particularly grass chicken eggs, which can hinder brand expansion [23] - It also points out the difficulties of sustaining single-product stores, as the novelty can quickly wear off, leading to a decline in customer interest and foot traffic [24] - The survival rate of new restaurants has decreased significantly, from 78% to 56% over the past five years, indicating increasing competition and operational challenges in the restaurant industry [31][30] Group 3 - The article discusses the misconceptions surrounding low-cost restaurant entrepreneurship, emphasizing that initial investment costs often do not account for ongoing operational expenses [28][29] - Many new entrants into the restaurant industry underestimate the complexity and demands of running a successful business, leading to a high failure rate among new ventures [36][35] - The competitive landscape has evolved, requiring a focus on supply chain management, operational efficiency, and brand innovation rather than just product offerings [37][32]

Core Points - The article discusses a significant failure experienced by SpaceX on June 28, 2015, when a Falcon 9 rocket exploded shortly after launch due to a minor component failure [1][6][10] - The incident resulted in the loss of a CRS-7 mission intended to deliver 2,500 kilograms of supplies to the International Space Station [6][10] - The failure was attributed to a broken helium tank support strut, which was designed to withstand 4,500 kilograms of force but failed under less than 900 kilograms [8][10] Summary by Sections Incident Overview - The Falcon 9 rocket launched successfully but exploded 139 seconds into the flight, leading to a complete loss of the vehicle and its cargo [4][6] - The explosion occurred on Elon Musk's birthday, adding a dramatic element to the event [6] Investigation and Findings - SpaceX established an accident investigation committee comprising 34 engineers from NASA, FAA, Lockheed, and SpaceX [8] - The investigation revealed that the failure of a carbon fiber-wrapped stainless steel support strut led to a catastrophic chain reaction, resulting in the explosion [8] Impact on SpaceX and the Industry - The incident caused significant financial losses for SpaceX, estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars [8] - Despite the setback, SpaceX quickly resumed operations and achieved subsequent successful launches, indicating resilience and a commitment to learning from failures [10] - The event served as a critical lesson for the aerospace industry, emphasizing the importance of rigorous engineering standards and testing [10]

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI aims to leverage Google's TPU tensor processing units to reduce its operational costs [1] Group 1 - OpenAI is exploring the use of TPU technology from Google to enhance its cost efficiency [1]

智通财经6月28日电，据报道，OpenAI希望谷歌的TPU张量处理器能够帮助降低其成本。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI aims to leverage Google's TPU tensor processing units to reduce its operational costs [1] Group 1 - OpenAI is exploring the use of TPU technology from Google to enhance its cost efficiency [1]

中经记者 陈晶晶 北京报道 偿付能力未达标的前海财险，再次出现双重变局。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，根据公开信息，前海财险20%股权即将被折价拍卖，而履职仅一年多的总 经理李功霓近期突然提出辞职，今年年初刚上任的董事长霍建梅担任临时负责人。 总经理辞任、超一半股权被冻结，多个季度偿付能力长期不达标，前海财险如何应对当前的经营治理挑 战？ 股权折价30%拍卖 根据前海财险2025年一季度偿付能力报告，深圳市钜盛华股份有限公司（以下简称"钜盛华"）持有的前 海财险20%股权被法院轮番冻结，冻结期限至2028年3月4日。 近期，阿里司法拍卖平台显示，北京金融法院将于2025年7月21日公开拍卖钜盛华持有的前海财险20% 股权，起拍价定为3080万元，较4400万元的评估价折价30%。另外，按照前海财险10亿元的注册资本计 算，20%股权对应的注册资本价值应为2亿元。 值得一提的是，北京金融法院发布的委托书显示，此次拍卖是在执行中融人寿保险股份有限公司与钜盛 华、深圳市宝能投资集团有限公司（以下简称"宝能集团"）的债务纠纷所引发。 2024年9月，法院判决钜盛华、宝能集团执行20.25亿元。为清偿债务，法院相继冻结了 ...