Group 1 - Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by over 1% in a single day [1] - Brent crude oil surpassed $67 per barrel [1] - WTI crude oil is currently priced at $65.05 per barrel [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心小幅反弹，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.55 美元至 | | | | 64.92 美元/桶，涨幅 0.85%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 0.54 美元 | | | | 至 67.68 美元/桶，涨幅 0.80%。SC2508 以 504.8 元/桶收盘，下跌 | | | | 3.9 元/桶，跌幅为 0.77%。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 6 月 20 | | | | 日当周，美国商业原油库存减少 580 万桶至 4.151 亿桶，此前市 | | | | 场预期为减少 80 万桶。SPR 增加 20 万桶至 4.025 亿桶。俄克拉 | | | | 荷马州交割地库欣仓库的原油库存下滑 46.4 万桶。美国汽油库存 | | | | 减少 210 万桶至 2.279 亿桶，美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库 | | | 原油 | 存减少 410 万桶至 1.053 亿桶。成品油库存去化整体高于预期。 | 震荡 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/26 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/24 | 2025/6/25 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 518. 6 | 508. 6 | -10.00 | 成交情况: | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1007. 3 | 1094. 0 | 86. 67 | PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,市场预估原油续 跌,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少,现货基差仍然较强 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2673 | 1. 2960 | 0. 0287 | | | | CFR中国PX | 859 | 849 | -10 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 217 | 263 | 46 | | | | PTA主力 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran could lead to significant disruptions in global oil supply, causing oil prices to surge and impacting economies worldwide [2][4][5]. Geopolitical Impact - The attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has heightened tensions in the Middle East, with global attention on Iran's possible retaliation against U.S. military bases [2]. - Iran's parliament has suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for one-third of the world's oil shipments, which could severely disrupt the global oil supply chain [2]. Economic Consequences - If the Strait is closed, oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel, significantly impacting countries like China, which imports 553 million tons of crude oil annually, costing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan (about $325.2 billion) [5][6]. - The potential increase in oil prices would lead to higher domestic prices in the U.S., putting pressure on the economy and possibly affecting government policies [5]. Affected Countries - Israel is expected to be minimally affected due to its reliance on non-maritime oil supplies and strong economic resilience [4]. - China, Japan, South Korea, and India are among the countries that would face significant economic losses and supply chain disruptions if the Strait is closed [8]. - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE would oppose the closure, as it would hinder their ability to profit from oil sales despite potential price increases [8][10]. Strategic Considerations - Iran's decision to close the Strait may backfire, as it heavily relies on oil exports for revenue, and such a move could lead to military intervention by the U.S. to reopen the Strait [10][12]. - The analysis suggests that the closure of the Strait would be detrimental to nearly all countries involved, both oil producers and consumers, with China being particularly vulnerable due to its dependence on maritime oil transport [10][12].

Group 1 - Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire on June 24, alleviating market concerns over tensions, leading to a decline in international oil prices [1] - NYMEX crude oil futures for August fell by $4.14 to $64.37 per barrel, a decrease of 6.04% [1] - ICE Brent crude oil futures for August dropped by $4.34 to $67.14 per barrel, a decrease of 6.07% [1] - China's INE crude oil futures for the main contract 2508 fell by 16.3 to 553.6 yuan per barrel, with a night session drop of 51.3 to 502.3 yuan per barrel [1] Group 2 - Trump stated on his social media platform that China can continue purchasing oil from Iran and expressed hope that China would also buy oil from the U.S. [2] - The White House clarified that Trump's comments do not indicate a relaxation of U.S. sanctions, emphasizing that the focus is on encouraging imports of U.S. oil rather than Iranian oil [2] - Historically, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on several Chinese refineries and ports for importing Iranian oil [2] Group 3 - By March 2025, China's oil purchases from the U.S. are projected to decrease by 90% year-on-year, from a peak of 29 million barrels per month to approximately 3 million barrels per month [4] Group 4 - In response to Trump's comments, China's Foreign Ministry stated that it will take reasonable energy security measures based on its national interests [5]

美、布两油短线走高0.5美元，现分别报65.91美元/桶和66.92美元/桶。 ...

据外交人士透露，会谈内容可能涉及乌克兰拟采购的新防空系统、对俄制裁以及国际油价上限 等关键议题。 据央视新闻， 当地时间6月25日，美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在荷兰海牙举行会 谈 。 这是特朗普4月以来，与泽连斯基的首次面对面会谈。 ...

1) Will US intervention continue, and how will regional dynamics be impacted? Following the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, Pres. Trump warned that more targets remain if Iran fails to back down. Iran vowed retaliation, and Israel is on high alert after intercepting missiles from Iranian proxies. Key Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, have called for restraint amid fears of regional escalation and threats to oil infrastructure. We are watching for signs of further escalation and how they may ...

Group 1 - Oil prices are attempting to rebound after experiencing a sell-off due to easing tensions in the Israel-Iran conflict [1] - The market focus has shifted back to fundamentals, with traders questioning whether oil prices can regain upward momentum from current levels [1] - Prior to the recent escalation in conflict, oil prices had already been on an upward trend since April [1]