智通财经APP获悉，大摩发布研报称，以色列与伊朗之间军事活动的增加，为未来油价走势开辟了广泛 的可能性，在此之中，预见了三种 "锚定" 情景：首先，军事冲突不一定会干扰石油流动。如果该地区的 出口未受影响，油价可能会回落至每桶60美元；其次，伊朗出口可能大幅减少，这可能会消除明年的全 球供应过剩，在市场平衡的情况下，油价将在75-80美元左右波动；最终，这场冲突可能会使更广泛的海 湾地区的石油出口面临风险，在这种情况下，2022年式的油价也并非不可能。 大摩表示："大部分概率集中在情景一，这是基准情况。由于缺乏真正的历史先例，情景三仍然是一个异 常情况。即使是小概率事件，若其上行空间巨大，也可能会推动油价上涨。只要不确定性持续存在，每 桶10美元左右的风险溢价就是合理的。" 大摩主要内容如下： 石油综合体对周五针对伊朗的袭击做出强烈反应：不仅近月布伦特原油期货价格上涨约 7%，而且在远期 曲线上，日历价差也大幅攀升。就在几天前，布伦特原油远期曲线在 2026 年及以后仍呈现期货溢价 (contango)结构，这表明市场预期供应过剩。但现在，这种情况已经消失，整个布伦特原油远期曲线再次 完全处于现货溢价(bac ...

从盘面上看，油气开采及服务、石油加工贸易、可燃冰、燃气、页岩气等能源板块今日涨幅居前。首华 燃气（300483）表现亮眼，午后直线拉升至"20CM"涨停；准油股份收获5天5板。 消息面上，据新华社消息，当地媒体报道称，美国总统特朗普17日晚告诉其高级别助理，他已批准美军 对伊朗的打击计划，但暂不下达最后命令，以观察伊朗是否会放弃核项目。 今日，A股三大指数调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.79%，深证成指跌1.21%，创业板指跌1.36%。全市 场成交额12808亿元。 油气股大涨 今日午后，同花顺油气开采及服务板块大幅拉升。 | | | 油气开采及服务 1528.57 5.09% | | C | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成分股 | 基金 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 新闻 | | 首华燃气 300483 | | 13.38 | +20.00% | +43.10% | | 首板 最终涨停13:16 | | | | | | 通源石油 | | 8.24 | +11.35% | +95.26% | | 300164 | | | | | | い アナイスセン | ...

金十数据6月19日讯，由于投资者担心美国可能会放弃中东问题的外交解决方案，加入以色列对伊朗的 攻击，油价波动仍然较大，这反映出市场担心冲突的任何进一步升级都可能加剧海湾地区石油供应中断 的风险。澳新银行研究分析师表示，石油衍生品市场突显出投资者的紧张情绪，看涨期权的溢价达到10 多年来的最高水平，波动性飙升至3年高点。特朗普星期二晚间对高级助手说，他批准了对伊朗的攻击 计划，但未下达最后命令。 由于美国卷入中东冲突的不确定性，油价波动仍然很大 ...

Industry Overview - The oil processing trade sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising over 2% as of June 19, 2023, and individual stocks such as Baomo Co., Ltd. and Maohua Shihua reaching the daily limit [1] - Recent oil price increases have been significant, with WTI crude futures rising by 13.81% and Brent crude futures by 12.80% from June 6 to June 13, 2023, primarily driven by geopolitical factors affecting the oil processing trade sector [1] - The internationalization of oil processing trade is increasing, with China being one of the largest oil importers globally, enhancing the influence of domestic companies in international markets [1] Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of the oil processing trade sector, driven by global economic recovery, demand growth, and policy support [2] - Companies are expected to enhance their capabilities through technological innovation and industrial upgrades, potentially gaining larger market shares and profits [2] - The stabilization and recovery of international oil prices, along with geopolitical uncertainties, may further enhance the valuation of the oil processing trade sector, providing good investment returns [2] Company Profiles - **Baomo Co., Ltd. (002476)**: Main business includes oilfield chemicals, fine chemicals, and environmental water treatment, with key products like acrylamide and polyacrylamide [2] - **Maohua Shihua (000637)**: Engaged in the production and sales of petrochemical products, with major products including polypropylene and liquefied petroleum gas [2] - **Baoli International (300135)**: Focuses on the production and sales of modified asphalt and other specialized asphalt products [2] - **Daqing Huake (000985)**: Specializes in fine petrochemical products and pharmaceuticals, with key products including C5 and C9 fractions [3] - **Heshun Petroleum (603353)**: Operates gas station chains, storage, logistics, and wholesale of finished oil products [4] - **Taishan Petroleum (000554)**: Engaged in wholesale and retail of finished oil products, including gasoline and diesel [4] - **Unified Co., Ltd. (600506)**: Focuses on the research, production, and sales of lubricants [4] - **Bohui Co., Ltd. (300839)**: Engaged in the research, production, and sales of specialty aromatic products [5]

Core Viewpoint - A potential joint action by Russia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia to stabilize the oil market is possible, based on a precedent set in 2020 [1] Group 1 - The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Dmitryiev, indicated the possibility of collaboration among these countries to address oil market stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Israel-Palestine conflict has led to increased energy costs, prompting a surge in the prices of biofuels such as palm oil and soybean oil, driven by rising demand for alternative energy sources [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Soybean oil prices have risen by 11% to over 55 cents per pound since last Thursday, marking the highest level since October 2023 [1] - Palm oil prices, which had been declining due to oversupply, have increased by over 6% this week to nearly 4100 ringgit per ton [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary reason for the rise in biofuel prices is the increase in energy and crude oil prices due to the ongoing conflict [1] - Rising energy prices have elevated palm oil production costs and boosted potential demand for biofuels as an alternative energy source [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, U.S. soybean oil inventories have dropped to 1.37 billion pounds, a 20% decrease compared to the same period last year, representing the lowest level for May since 2004 [1] - Domestic demand has increased due to policy support, alongside rising crude oil prices and tightening supply, which have further bolstered the market [1]

以色列与伊朗冲突升级叠加美国原油库存骤降，国际油价小幅攀升。特朗普透露伊朗主动寻求谈判，暂 缓军事打击，但市场焦虑未消，隐含波动率持续上升。霍尔木兹海峡若中断或推升油价至每桶120美 元，巴克莱警告伊朗出口减半将令布油突破每桶85美元。地缘风险溢价正超越基本面主导油价走势。 邓正红软实力表示，以色列与伊朗冲突持续和上周美国商业原油库存大幅下降，石油软实力保持向上态 势，周三（6月18日）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油7月期货 结算价每桶涨0.30美元至75.14美元，涨幅0.40%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月期货结算价每桶涨0.25 美元至76.70美元，涨幅0.33%。美国总统特朗普18日表示，伊朗方面已经联系他并甚至表示可以派一个 代表团来白宫进行谈判。特朗普还说，自己此前考虑对伊朗核实施进行军事打击，但尚未作出最终决 定。通过谈判解决伊朗核问题还为时不晚。 分析认为，以色列与伊朗冲突的显著升级可能推动油价大幅上涨。虽然当前市场暂时趋于稳定，但真正 决定走势的将是下一个突发消息。目前隐含波动率持续上升，表明潜在的市场焦虑情绪依然高涨，尽管 这并未完全反映在价格中。石油市 ...

霍尔木兹海峡的GPS干扰具有挑战性，壳牌对该地区的航运非常谨慎。 壳牌CEO：当前的石油市场保持平衡。 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储正在关注中东冲突，但没有对此作出太多评论。 尽管在20世纪70年代，能源价格的飙升往往不会产生长期影响。他指出，与几十年前相比，美国对中东 石油的依赖程度已大大降低。 鲍威尔称美国对中东石油的依赖程度已大大降低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays predicts that if Iran's oil exports are halved, Brent crude oil prices could rise to $85 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The potential impact of reduced Iranian oil exports on global oil prices is significant, indicating a direct correlation between supply constraints and price increases [1]