瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场受关税政策预期反复、美联储降息博弈及就业数据扰动影响，整体呈震荡偏强 走势。周初白宫宣布中美达成协议暂缓对等关税，市场避险情绪边际降温，金价上行承压，但特朗普施压 美联储紧急降息及财政赤字扩张预期仍提供支撑。随后，ISM制造业PMI虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间，叠加 ADP就业数据意外下滑，市场对非农放缓的预期升温，推动金价突破3350美元/盎司关键阻力。然而，6月非 农新增人数超出市场预期，失业率由劳动力参与率下降的作用下意外下滑，叠加ISM服务业PMI回暖，令7月 降息概率回落，美元与美债收益率反弹压制金价涨幅。尽管本次就业人数录得超预期增长，但仍有迹象表 明就业市场呈现放缓态势，主要反映出招聘活动进一步放缓，失业人群再次就业的比例显著 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-4） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响拉涨，本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 量双双下滑，但整体处于近年来同期高位水平，后期铁矿发运有冲量预期， | | | | | 到港压力或增大。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 口库存仍旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁 | | | | | 水状况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | | | 中长期看，铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入 | | | | | 累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期 | | | | | 空单离场观望。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产，临汾地区部分 ...

2025 年 7 月 4 日星期五 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | | | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.02%报 121.130 元， 10 年期主力合约持平于 109.105 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 106.255 元，2 年期主 力合约涨 0.01%报 102.514 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，7 月 3 日以固 ...

还记得孟晚舟被扣押的情形吗？这次的情节如出一辙，只是换了六名普通中国公民充当"演员"。美方给出的罪名也别出心裁——"用加密货币进行洗 钱"和"参与黑客攻击"。更具讽刺性的是，就在逮捕行动的前一天，特朗普在白宫玫瑰园还和颜悦色地说："与中国和谐相处非常重要。"这份"口头上的和 善"与实际行动的背离，显然是特朗普在为谈判铺路，想通过这种方式增加筹码，逼迫中方妥协。 然而，中国早已看透了美国的这套"虚空操作"。面对美国的种种伎俩，中国不再手软，早早进行了反制的布局。 这场博弈仿佛是一局精彩的棋局，两个高手对弈，一方低调地说着"请多指教"，却悄然地移动了对方的棋子。特朗普政府最近的行动，恰如其分地展示 了"嘴上说和，背后做难"的套路——明面上宣称要通过访问中国来缓解紧张局势，背地里却突然逮捕了六名中国公民。 就在外界热烈讨论特朗普是否会率团访问中国时，美国司法部却毫无预兆地宣布，因所谓的"加密货币洗钱"和"黑客攻击"罪名，逮捕了六名中国公民。这样 的"先示好，后捅刀"做法，再次暴露了华盛顿惯用的"极限施压"策略，仿佛是对谈判前的一种试探。 然而，今天的美国已不是昔日那个"想打谁就打谁"的霸权国家，而中国也不再是那个" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].

Group 1 - International gold prices ended a three-day rally, with spot gold closing at $3326 per ounce and hitting a low of $3311 per ounce during trading [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June exceeded expectations, with a net increase of 147,000 jobs, leading to a drop in gold prices as market expectations for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished [2] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, the lowest level since February of this year, further impacting gold prices negatively [2] Group 2 - Domestic gold futures in China fell by 0.54%, trading at 774 yuan per gram, following the trend in international markets [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices may remain volatile in the short term due to the approaching expiration of a 90-day tariff exemption period on July 9 [2] - In the first half of the year, tariff risks drove gold prices to new highs, with London gold reaching $3500 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of 35% [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are in a corrective phase after reaching previous highs near $3500 per ounce, with support at the 60-day moving average [3] - As of June 24, speculative positions in COMEX gold futures and options decreased by 6,142 contracts, indicating a reduction in bullish sentiment [3] - Long-term drivers for gold prices remain intact, supported by trends of weakening U.S. dollar and rising global "de-dollarization" [3]

刚刚，黄金突然直线跳水！ 截至7月3日20:51，现货黄金跌破3320.00美元/盎司关口，日内跌1.18%；COMEX黄金期货主 力最新报3333.3美元/盎司，日内跌近0.80%。 美国国债收益率飙升，短期国债领跌，2年期和5年期收益率上涨近10个基点，10年期收益率 跳升5.5个基点。 | 美国国债 こ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年期 | | 4.330 | 4.334 | 3.878 | | △ 0.52bp | △ 5.51bp | △ 9.71bp | 据财联社报道，美国6月"小非农"ADP就业人数 意外减少3.3万人 ，自2023年3月以来首次负 增长，预期为增长9.8万人， 这也是时隔逾两年多时间ADP数据首度转负 ，而在周三的数据 发布前，没有任何一位经济学家预计ADP数据会出现负值。 据财联社报道，AmeriVet Securities的美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示， 7月 降息的可能性已几乎没有， "美联储将在夏季暂停动作"，"就业数据是美联储调整政策的关 键"，这份报告为鲍威尔继续按兵不动提供了 ...

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and upward movement in the second half of 2025, driven by global fundamental improvements and domestic policy support [2][4][5] - Major securities firms are optimistic about the A-share market, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery and sector rotation, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and financial sectors [3][5][6] - The valuation of Chinese assets is undergoing a re-evaluation, with the CSI 800 forward PE TTM stabilizing around 19, indicating a premium over MSCI emerging markets excluding China [3][7] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by loose liquidity and weak demand, similar to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, suggesting that structural growth sectors will be key investment opportunities [4][6] - A-share valuations are at a historical average level, providing a relatively high investment cost-performance ratio compared to developed markets [5][7] - The market is expected to maintain strong support on the valuation front, with a focus on small-cap stocks, technology, and essential consumer goods [7][8] Group 3 - The market is positioned for a long-term slow bull market, with 3400 points seen as a starting point, supported by improved asset quality and valuation environment [8][9] - The focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency is expected to drive growth in sectors such as AI, robotics, and new energy vehicles, enhancing China's competitive edge globally [10][11] - The potential for a significant bull market is anticipated if macroeconomic conditions align, with historical data suggesting substantial returns during synchronized economic cycles [6][9]

Group 1 - The report indicates that June economic data showed a slowdown, with retail and personal consumption expenditures falling short of expectations, and Q1 GDP revised down to -0.5%, reflecting the downward pressure from tariffs on the economy [2][3][4] - Despite the economic slowdown, employment data remained resilient, leading the market to maintain a "soft landing" outlook for the economy [2][3] - In June, U.S. stock markets reached new historical highs, while U.S. Treasury yields retreated from their highs [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields changed by +25.3, +24, +23.9, and +29.5 basis points respectively by the end of June [3][12] - The 30Y-10Y Treasury yield spread remained unchanged at 49.8 basis points at the end of the month [3][12] Group 3 - The macro environment analysis indicates that the FOMC maintained the policy interest rate at 4%-4.25% in June, with a more positive outlook on economic uncertainty [4][66] - The report notes a significant divergence among FOMC members regarding the expected rate cuts and inflation outlook for the year [4][66] Group 4 - The report projects that the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries to foreign investors may decline due to the yield on U.S. Treasuries being lower than that of European and Japanese government bonds after currency hedging costs [6][19] - It suggests that the long-end U.S. Treasury rates have stabilized, with the 10-year Treasury still offering high allocation value in the 4.4%-4.5% range [6][19] Group 5 - The report recommends short-term trading within the 4.2%-4.5% range while waiting for a turning point in interest rates, such as significantly weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data or inflation data [6][19] - Specific recommended instruments include TLT, TMF, and 10-year and longer Treasury futures [6][19]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 ICE ER 日常500强投资值1/ 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 fet 服 热线 官 方 网 站 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格跟踪 | 2025/7/2 | 3331.81 | 35. 95 | 3341. 7 ...