【环球时报综合报道】日本内阁府周一公布的数据显示，截至3月的3个月内，日本实际国内生产总值 （GDP）按年率计算萎缩0.2%，优于初值所显示的0.7%降幅。此外，日本财务省9日公布的4月国际收 支初值显示，出口减去进口的贸易收支为逆差328亿日元（100日元约合4.98元人民币）。出口增长4.0% 至8.77万亿日元，进口减少2.9%至8.80万亿日元。 针对日本一季度的经济数据情况，日本舆论予以广泛关注。彭博社（日文版）9日分析称，尽管修正后 的数据收窄了负值，但内需未能完全弥补疲软的外需的局面仍然没有改变。由于日本物价高企，个人消 费依然疲软，而围绕美国特朗普政府关税措施的不确定性继续对全球经济构成下行压力。促进个人消费 和持续的出口增长仍是日本经济恢复正增长的关键。 针对特朗普关税，经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正于5日至8日访问华盛顿，举行了第五轮谈判，但双方仍未 达成共识。日方坚持寻求取消一系列关税措施的政策。据《日本经济新闻》9日报道，赤泽亮正计划本 周再次访问美国，出席第六轮日美关税谈判。这将是赤泽连续4周访问美国。由于七国集团（G7）峰会 将于6月15日至17日在加拿大举行，日本正寻求利用此次机会就关 ...

正信期货铜周报20250609 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨询号:Z0016959 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net 宏观层面：周内铜价震荡后尾盘走强，关税预期定价再度扰动盘面。美国对钢铝再度提高关税至50%， 引发对232调查还未落地的铜的关税预期走强，COMEX铜与LME铜价差走阔至1000美元以上，但力度并未 有前一次剧烈，我们认为该驱动不足以持续驱动盘面上涨。当前美国经济正等待"硬数据"观点，制造 业一端回落，关注就业情况变化。美联储过去三次降息从动机上看均为"预防式降息" ，但利率仍然处 于限制性水平，而从近期美联储给到的预期管理来看，美联储给出的不确定性目标和预期，有概率使得 下一次降息成为"衰退式降息" ，这还要通过不断地"硬数据"来给到是否有衰退风险的加强信号。 Tel：027-68851554 内容要点 产业基本面：从铜目前的基本面来看，原料供给导致的精炼加工费低廉问题依然严峻，但这仍然没有 限制到精铜实际产出，5月精铜产量再创新高。国内需求季节性转淡，铜材开工率 ...

白银补涨，金银比高位回调 ——黄金行业周报 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：任恒 执业证书编号：S0740525010001 Email：renheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 风险提示：宏观波动、政策变动、金属价格波动风险、产业政策不及预期的风险、下游消 费不及预期的风险、研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 投资建议：白银补涨，金银比高位回调，维持行业"增持"评级。 美国经济数据不及预期，市场对美联储降息预期提升，但中美贸易缓和使得避险需求 下行，黄金价格短期预计维持震荡。中长期来看，美国粘性通胀挥之不去，2025 年已 然进入"滞胀-衰退"阶段，且日债大跌背后更多是央行持债占比过高带来的市场流动 性问题，美元信用体系的重塑已经成为趋势，金价有望持续走高，维持行业"增持" 评级。 基本状况 行情回顾：贵金属板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.70pct。本周贵金属板块环比上涨 3.58%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.70pct；跑输申万有色金属指数 ...

王爷说财经讯：6月9日消息，虽说现在美国劳动市场表面上还算稳定，但特朗普那反复无常的贸易政策，可把商界折腾惨了。 这政策变来变去，企业们根本没法为未来制定投资计划呀！ 而且美联储（Fed）也很头疼。因为担心关税措施会让通货膨胀抬头，所以即便经济形势不太妙，也不敢轻易降息。 这下可好，外界都在担心美国经济在今年夏天会变得更加艰难，甚至有可能陷入衰退！ 另外，美国民众的消费需求也变得犹豫不决，不敢大手大脚花钱了。 对此，《华尔街日报》分析报道说，美国经济今年夏天不好过，这和安联经济顾问——伊尔艾朗 （Mohamed El-Erian）一周前预测的Fed将进入 「艰难的夏天」不谋而合。 更早之前，阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济师——史洛克（Torsten Slok）就预测经济要陷入衰退了。 实际上，王爷说财经注意到，好多专家和机构都把这经济问题的"锅"甩给特朗普的关税政策。 例如：研究顾问公司Beacon Economics创办合伙人之一桑博格（Christopher Thornberg）就分析评论称，美国经济走向全看特朗普怎么决策，可关 键是特朗普自己都不知道下一步要干啥，外界就更没法预测啦！ 现在大部分经济学家都觉 ...

Group 1 - The article criticizes the erratic trade policies under Trump's administration, highlighting the imposition of tariffs on over 180 countries, which has led to significant economic repercussions for the U.S. [2] - Trump's contradictory statements regarding tariffs, such as claiming to earn $2 billion daily from tariffs while acknowledging that high tariffs deter consumer purchases, illustrate the confusion and instability in U.S. trade policy [2] - The article points out that the chaotic trade policies have resulted in a loss of international credibility for the U.S., raising doubts about the predictability of American policies [2] Group 2 - In the realm of diplomacy, Trump's claims of mediating between India and Pakistan were refuted by India, leading to increased tensions and skepticism about U.S. diplomatic integrity [3] - Trump's handling of the Middle East, particularly his comments on Gaza, has been criticized for lacking responsibility and contributing to the deterioration of U.S. credibility in the region [3] - The article emphasizes that Trump's inconsistent diplomatic approach has exacerbated tensions in the Middle East and diminished trust in U.S. foreign policy [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the internal divisions within the U.S. due to Trump's policies, with various groups such as small businesses and farmers expressing dissatisfaction and conflict arising from conflicting interests [4] - It highlights the lack of coherence within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting statements regarding Trump's proposals, which have led to confusion and disarray [4] - The internal discord is portrayed as a significant issue that undermines effective governance and policy implementation [4] Group 4 - The article describes Trump's use of bullying tactics in foreign relations, particularly against Iran and Egypt, which have resulted in increased international isolation for the U.S. [5] - It notes that the aggressive approach has prompted backlash from other nations, including the EU and allies like Canada and Australia, who have expressed their opposition [5] - The overall narrative suggests that Trump's actions are leading the U.S. towards chaos and decline, reminiscent of the turmoil seen in declining empires [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年6月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据超预期，降息预期降温，贸易消息提振，金价震荡回落；美国 三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美元指数涨0.47%报99.20，离岸 人民币贬值报7.18854；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨11.11个基点报 4.506%；COMEX黄金期货跌1.31%报3331美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.24，现货779.7，基差-3.54，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单17847千克，增加600千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential challenges facing the U.S. economy as it navigates through uncertain trade policies and a fragile labor market, which could lead to significant economic disruptions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining stable between 4% and 4.2% over the past year, indicating a seemingly healthy labor market [1]. - However, there are underlying issues, such as a slowdown in job growth and a cooling real estate market, which raise concerns about future economic stability [1]. Group 2: Risks to the Economy - The article identifies three major risks that could lead to severe economic consequences: a fragile labor market, potential declines in consumer spending, and financial market shocks [3][4][5]. - The labor market is described as being in an unstable equilibrium, where companies are hesitant to lay off employees but are also not hiring, which could lead to a sudden spike in unemployment if demand weakens [4]. - Consumer debt delinquency rates have been rising, raising concerns that low-income borrowers may cut back on spending, which could further slow economic growth [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Challenges - The Federal Reserve is facing four significant challenges: unpredictable tariff policies, uncertainty in government fiscal policies, discrepancies in economic data, and the unpredictable impact of innovations like AI [2]. - The Fed has paused interest rate cuts due to concerns over new inflation risks stemming from tariffs, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and affect corporate profitability [6]. Group 4: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting various strategies to cope with the current economic challenges, with some choosing to wait and see while others adjust their supply chains [7]. - There is a consensus among economists that the key to avoiding a recession lies in the health of the U.S. consumer, with many believing the likelihood of a recession has increased compared to earlier in the year [7][8].

Group 1 - The international spot gold price opened at $3289.05, reached a high of $3403.14, and closed at $3308.83, with an increase of $20.14 or 0.61% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 99.42 points, closed at 99.19 points, and decreased by 0.23% [3] - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 6281.00 points, closed at 6592.81 points, with an increase of 4.98% [3] Group 2 - Silver price increased by 8.93% and closed at $35.91 [4] - Platinum price rose by 10.68% and closed at $1170.60 [5] - Palladium price increased by 7.64% and closed at $1046.25 [5] Group 3 - NYMEX crude oil price rose by 6.55% and closed at $64.77 [7] - The Dow Jones index increased by 1.17% and closed at 42762.87 points [7] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.50% and closed at 5802.82 points [7] Group 4 - The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.9, indicating a slight recession [12][14] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 13.9 million, but previous months' data were revised down significantly [16][17] - The US unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating a potential upward trend in unemployment [20] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, but the monthly net purchase decreased to 1.86621 tons [31][33] - The average hourly wage in the US was $31.16, with a year-on-year increase of 4.01%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [22][24]

北交所新股资金解冻了， 没占到便宜的，会不会就是万几的收益？ 以后肯定是万几了，但比逆回购高还是有人干。 回来的钱干嘛去呢？ 想买个理财，看了看， 灵活取用的2%年化的就算高的了 那放回购吧，年化1.6% 一年期定期存款0.95% 这些收益 率前几年听起来感觉都不可思议。 我刚工作有点钱存1年定期1.98%我觉得已经是历史低点 了。 经济这么好，为什么没有人贷款投资，开公司，办工厂？ 你们不想创造一个伟大的企 业，开创一个伟大的产品，实现自己的梦想吗？ 我不想过这样的生活！ lance77 巧了，最近正在研究辜朝明的《大衰退》，可以从另一个方面理解当下。 辜朝明理论试图解释的要点在于，日本衰退之所以持续那么久，本质在在于企业一直在修复 资产负债表，即1980年代泡沫经济刺破之后，此前举债买入大量资产的企业面临的困境在于 他们手中资产大幅折价，这些企业发现它们陷入一个困境，即借贷太多，甚至出现资不抵债 情况。如果是西方国家企业遭遇这样的境地，往往会破产或者重组，但是日本企业或者说大 衰退中的日本企业往往并非如此，他们的经营活动能够继续产生利润，其困境并非由于经营 失败，因此，他们如果继续存在就可以继续赚钱。 在 ...

jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 一季报利润增速由负转正，更多归功于低基数，并非内生性盈利周期改善 回顾过往五轮盈利下行周期，本轮 A 股处在历史上最长的负增长区间，带来了很低 的基数。2025Q1，周转率和杠杆率仍在向下，而利润率的改善带来了本次一季度的 上行，但抽丝剥茧发现，本次利润率的改善并非"量"或"价"有很显著的改变， 更大的原因来自于营业成本端、费用端的减少。 仔细分析一季报：①收入端，一季度 A 股整体需求尚未出现拐点，整体复苏动能疲 弱。②盈利端，全 A 非金融 ROE 连续 15 个季度下行，凸显深层次结构性压力对盈 利能力的持续性的影响，可归结于"资产负债表衰退"和杠杆率的持续衰退。③盈 利能力归因：一季度利润增速同比转正，核心动能源于低基数效应、营业成本下降 和费用小幅下降，导致销售净利率提升 0.06 个百分点至 4.57%。④企业信心尚未恢 复，产能周期、库存周期触底许久并未上行。 投资策略周报 2025 年 06 月 08 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 一季度 ...