（原标题：和讯投顾康厚榜：抱团周期结束了吗？） 益达今天这个伪天地板基本宣告它要凉了，油夫三峡这些跟风票也该放手了，不过尾盘红宝被大资金顶 上去，这个走势跟之前金龙护卫队很像，就像益达可能会慢慢回调，不会直接崩盘，电力板块的乐山虽 然炸板，但回封了银丰，龙杰也没跟着益达跳水，说明资金还没撤干净。但别忘了陈飞现在还在地板上 躺着，呢明天重点看三个信号，益达开盘会不会配合，红宝能不能继续强势，陈飞有没有资金来捞？另 外要注意，今天益达跳水的时候，王子新材和泰尔逆势上板走出了独立行情，上一个这么走的是正宗设 计，现在已经5连板了，这几个票得重点盯着重组这个板块。我前天就说过，只有前排能看，后排都是 坑，跑遍这种老龙头都能坑人，更说明重组就是个过渡题材，至于今天冒出来的电池啊医药这些都是短 线轮动，非主线题材，不是核心品种就别看了。最后总结下今天抱团出现了较大的负反馈，明天就观察 三个矛盾点来判断抱团是否结束，而低位题材目前依旧是轮动，只有核心才有观察的价值，后排谨慎参 与。 今天的行情真刺激。和讯投顾康厚榜分析，早上益达冲板的时候，昨天跌停的油夫三峡这些跟风票也跟 着起来了。昨天复盘我就说过，高位还没到恐慌的时候， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a phase of rotation among different sectors, with banks showing a distinct pattern of fluctuation compared to other stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Behavior - The index has shown a slight increase of around 8 to 9 points, but individual stock performances vary significantly, indicating a non-symmetrical transition between bank stocks and others [1]. - Recent market activity has seen a shift from sectors like ports, military, and foreign trade to others such as precious metals, batteries, and coal mining, suggesting a gradual integration process that may lead to a new market trend [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on individual stocks rather than the overall index, emphasizing the importance of stock selection over index fluctuations and trading volume [2]. - The current upward trend in short to medium-term moving averages suggests a higher probability of continued growth, although minor adjustments may occur in the near term [3]. - Investors are advised to identify and act on key market events and trends, employing a trial-and-error approach to buying, particularly in sectors showing potential, such as solid-state batteries [3].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing upward movement, driven by significant buying from large funds, particularly in the broad-based ETFs like the CSI 300 and the CSI 1000 index, indicating a potential end to the adjustment period after the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3400 points [1] - The securities sector is showing signs of a rebound, suggesting that small-cap stocks are being lifted to new heights, with the Shanghai and ChiNext indices returning to their 5-day moving averages, signaling the start of a new upward trend [1] - The upcoming upward movement is expected to be moderate and not particularly smooth, with fluctuations being a normal occurrence [1] Group 2 - There is a noticeable retreat in high-priced stocks, with many leading stocks hitting the daily limit down, reflecting hesitation and a shift in capital dynamics [2] - The previous trend of capital clustering in high-priced stocks is being disrupted, as large funds are showing a desire to prevent further declines in the market, leading to a loosening of positions in these stocks [2] - Funds are beginning to switch from high-priced stocks to lower-priced thematic sectors, indicating a rotation in market focus [2]

最近的盘子相信大家看的都比较迷茫，涨也涨不动，跌也跌不下来，买什么套什么割什么涨什么，很是 纠结。不过在这啊蓝筹还是劝大家一句，近期要对市场有足够高的专注度，毕竟平均股价在这个位置已 经盘整了整整10个交易日，而且呢这个箱体看着非常丝滑非常漂亮，一旦这里形成井喷式的加速，那么 就很有可能奔着4000点冲击了，有些时候敌人的动作就就是迅雷不及掩耳，稍不留神可能就会错过重大 的变盘。就比如去年9月24号的大井喷，其实也就涨了6天，但是呢大盘却从2700点一路干到了3600点， 而这一次从3300干到4000也不是什么不可能的事儿，所以啊看似平静的盘面，看似沉闷的交易，其实是 在为后续的变盘进行着酝酿，希望大家都能够用好的心态，积极向上的态度以及敬业的精神去应对好大 盘的某一天。6个营在城里无论涨跌，我们都有应对的方案，杀的狠了考虑低吸一旦放量突破，随时准 备把永章的4个营打到县城里。 5月20日，A股收盘了。和讯投顾刘文博分析，A股不负众望，截止到收盘依旧是3700家普涨，虽然昨天 领涨的诸如钛白粉，诸如港口航运在今天出现领跌，这也代表着行情仍然是一日游和电风扇，不过3000 多只上涨总归不是坏事。盘中个股板块轮 ...

尊敬的金融界同仁、交易精英： 在全球市场剧烈波动、风险与机遇并存的2025年，我们诚挚邀请您参加"主题为 第一 届：全球弈熵交易千人论坛.上海，副题为复旦求是财富论坛&超级交易员论坛"的顶级盛 会。与千名顶尖交易员、机构投资者和财富管理者共同探寻动荡市场中的超额收益密 码。深度解构2025年股票市场的机会挖掘术、期货市场的周期博弈法则、期权交易的波 动率套利矩阵。当前贸易进入白热化，全球经济格局深度重构，金融市场波动加剧、地 缘冲突、货币政策转向与产业变革交织。在这充满不确定性的时代，中国市场正孕育着 前所未有的投资机遇。此外，中国资本市场深化改革、科技创新加速迭代、金融衍生品 工具日益丰富，为敏锐的交易者提供了前所未有的套利空间与阿尔法机会。本次峰会将 带您从宏观战略到微观交易，全方位把握股票、期货、期权市场的立体化作战机遇。 宏观层面，您将听到专家解读全球央行政策分化下的资产轮动节奏，地缘政治风险 定价模型，拆解中美利差收窄背景下的大类资产配置框架。股票市场环节，超20年投资 私募掌门人将揭秘高波动环境下行业轮动的量化识别系统；期货市场板块，商品期货专 家将带您透视全球供应链重构下的趋势跟踪机会，极端行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current bank gold bar prices are closely linked to the global macro environment, with prices around 770 RMB per gram as of May 20, 2025, reflecting both financial and commodity attributes of physical gold [7]. Group 1: Bank Gold Bar Prices - The price of gold bars varies among banks, with the Agricultural Bank of China offering the highest price at 770.90 RMB per gram, while the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China offers the lowest at 763.2 RMB per gram [4][5]. - Investment gold bar prices are typically based on the Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 gold price, with an additional handling fee of 10 to 20 RMB per gram [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The London gold price is at 2120 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold AU9999 main contract is priced at 478.5 RMB per gram, indicating a premium for craftsmanship gold bars of about 4.5% [7]. - The strong performance of the RMB has not led to a decrease in domestic gold bar prices, highlighting a contradiction where geopolitical risks in the Middle East increase demand for safe-haven assets [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should consider three key factors: currency hedging to mitigate single currency risk, the current low volatility of gold, and the cultural attributes of craftsmanship gold bars as a new choice for wealth inheritance [9]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation is increasing among domestic residents, with a reported 22% increase in transaction volume for the Industrial and Commercial Bank's gold bars [7].

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 转债板块轮动深化，整体估值压缩 ——可转债周报 20250517 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周（2025 年 5 月 12 日–2025 年 5 月 17 日）A 股整体维持震荡整理格局，结构性轮动加 剧，市场风格由高弹性博弈逐步向防御与低位回补倾斜。可转债方面，中证转债指数微涨0.32%， 成交温和修复，低价与中价区间估值明显压缩，中高平价个券估值小幅修复。行业间表现分化， 个券层面弹性主导的结构性机会仍存。一级市场供给节奏活跃，条款博弈延续审慎，赎回扰动 整体可控。建议配置上聚焦低溢价、高景气个券，同时兼顾高评级蓝筹类转债的稳健配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 转债板块轮动深化，整体估值压缩 2] ——可转债周报 20250517 [Table_Summary2] ...

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the observation of industry diffusion indices; Detailed Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in diffusion indices for various industries, ranking them based on their performance. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Advancing Stocks}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model has shown varying performance over the years, with significant returns in some periods and notable drawdowns in others[6][14][27] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Detailed Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on GRU factor scores, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading data. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model has achieved substantial excess returns by capturing trading information, though it has faced challenges in certain market conditions[7][14][34] Model Backtest Results - Diffusion Index Model, Average Weekly Return: 0.72%, Excess Return: 0.11%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -2.26%[32] - GRU Factor Model, Average Weekly Return: 1.07%, Excess Return: 0.44%, Year-to-Date Excess Return: -3.71%[37] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is constructed using GRU deep learning networks to analyze minute-level trading data; Detailed Construction Process: The factor scores are calculated based on the GRU network's output, which evaluates the trading data to rank industries. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor Score} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor has shown significant improvements in certain industries, indicating its effectiveness in capturing trading information[7][14][35] Factor Backtest Results - GRU Industry Factor, Top Industries: Automotive (2.84), Steel (1.85), Media (1.48), Power Equipment and New Energy (1.35), Communication (0.88), Coal (0.66)[7][14][35]

和讯投顾谢正光表示，我们说大盘现在分两种类型的股票，一种就是以权重股表现的为代表，比如说银 行保险这一类股，这一类股涨的时候，其他的小票都会下跌，而这一类比如说银行和券商这一类股票在 下跌的时候，那么小盘股就表现活跃，表现为什么？指数涨的时候个股可能不涨，但指数不涨的时候个 股可能涨。所以说这种局面在现在或者未来一段时间内可能还会有一种继续延续的一个过程。权重搭 台，个股唱戏，这是目前市场的一种特点。目前的这种盘面呢它是成交量不温不火，慢牛行情呢时隐时 现，所以说应该是一种良性循环的过程。 对于这种行情，具体操作应该分两种，一种就是说以持股为主，因为每个人持有的股票可能它不一样， 但是因为现在是轮动行情，那都会有一番表现的机会，可能有一些表现的长一点，有些表现的短一点， 但是都会有表现，这是一种常态。所以说尽量的以持股为主，因为现在指数刚才谈了没有太大风险，它 会有一种慢慢攀升的这种结构。那么仓位比较少的，或者是现在还想再介入的，建议关注近期资金相对 关注比较多一点的。比如说军工，创新药、消费类、小盘类，特别是消费类这一段时间的表现的更加活 跃一些，因为消费是一种积极促进政策引导下的一种行情，所以说它还有一个 ...

廖市无双：冲高回落后，市场如何演化？20250518 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,432 点附近面临强大阻力，难以形成 V 形反转，预计将回撤 至 3,186-3,200 点缺口区域，消化套牢盘和获利盘，为后续上涨积蓄力量。 投资者应关注此关键回撤位。 • 恒生科技指数自 3 月以来大幅下跌，反弹阻力位在 5,250 至 5,470 点，同 样难以直接 V 形反转。预计将经历 ABC 结构调整，消化短线获利盘和套牢 盘，为下一轮上涨做准备，投资者需警惕风险。 • 市场双向波动加剧，投资者应谨慎应对，关注短期获利盘和套牢盘的影响， 做好风险管理。长期投资者可利用震荡期进行布局，把握未来上涨机会， 但需避免追高。 • 近期大金融板块的上涨属于补涨需求，不具备持续性，并非新一轮主升浪 开启。投资者应理性看待，避免盲目追涨，关注市场板块轮动，适时调整 持仓结构。 • 当前市场点位已超过 4 月初，但基本面不如当时，存在超涨可能。关税水 平较高，对市场构成压力。投资者应关注基本面变化，警惕市场情绪过高 带来的风险。 Q&A 近期市场在反弹过程中遇到的主要阻力区域在哪里？市场是否有可能形成 V 形 反转？ 近期市场的主要阻 ...