2025 年 5 月 14 日 生猪：等待矛盾释放，短期博弈 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 同 比 0 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 15000 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14550 | 0 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15190 | -50 | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 比 同 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13575 | 50 | 资料来源：国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场逻辑】 虽然现阶段南北肥标价差均倒挂，集团仔猪售卖减少，5 月栏圈压力略有增强 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PTA market is expected to continue its upward trend due to tightening supply and improving demand dynamics, driven by seasonal factors and inventory reductions [1][4]. - Recent data shows that the overall PTA operating rate in China has dropped to 70.3%, significantly lower than the same period in the past three years, with multiple major manufacturers undergoing maintenance [2]. - The polyester sector has seen an unexpected increase in operating rates, reaching 94.2%, which is a new high for the year, alleviating previous concerns about low demand [3]. Group 2 - The social inventory of PTA has been decreasing, with the turnover days dropping to 13.36 days, indicating a continuous destocking trend [2]. - The upcoming summer season in Europe and the U.S. is expected to boost gasoline consumption, which may positively impact the aromatics market, particularly in the context of PTA and PX production [4]. - The overall supply of PTA is anticipated to remain tight in May, providing strong support for price increases, as the polyester industry shows robust production and sales performance [4].

□ 科创债不仅是传统意义上的"高收益债"，更具备"高变化债"和"高成长债"的独特属性。因此，建 立"债项+主体"双重视角的估值方法论已成为当前市场的共识 □ 应提高合格投资者准入门槛，引导具有风险承受能力的投资者入场 □ 应进一步推动风险管理工具的完善与创新，为投资者提供风险缓释手段 □ 应进一步完善科技创新债投资者保护机制，� 中小型科技企业迎来融资良机 科创债估值逻辑将升级 投资者结构需优化 ◎记者 张欣然 债市"科技板"，将为科技型公司提供全新的融资渠道。 5月7日，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布通知明确，科技创新债券发行主体包括科技型企业和股权投资 机构。 通知明确，符合五类情形之一的科技型企业均可发布科技创新债券，包括：至少具备一项经有关部门认 定的科技创新称号的企业，包括但不限于高新技术企业、科技型中小企业、"专精特新"中小企业（含专 精特新"小巨人"企业）、创新型中小企业、国家技术创新示范企业以及制造业单项冠军企业；科技贷款 支持范围内的企业，包括"科技创新再贷款""创新积分制"白名单等支持的企业等。这将鼓励成长期、成 熟期科技型企业发行中长期债券，为高新技术创新引来"源头活水"。 当前，我国债券 ...

wo[Table_Title] Research Report 13 May 2025 中国电子 China (Overseas) Technology 红杉 AI 峰会六大关键议题解读（1）： AI 商业化范式转移，从"工具逻辑"迈向"成果逻辑" Interpretation of the Six Key Topics of the Sequoia AI Summit (1): The Paradigm Shift of AI Commercialization, Transitioning from the "Tool Logic" to the "Outcome Logic" 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件： 在 2025 年红杉 AI 峰会上，关于 AI 商业化路径的讨论中，"从工具逻辑向成果逻辑的转 ...

Group 1 - The signing of the US-China trade agreement has provided a temporary boost to global markets, but underlying economic risks remain [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Wilson predicts a year-end target of 6500 points for the S&P 500, indicating a 12% upside potential, as the retreat of tariff threats allows the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus [3] - Apollo's Chief Economist Slok observes that traders are adjusting their interest rate cut expectations from 3-4 cuts to 2, signaling a shift in market sentiment as recession fears diminish [3] Group 2 - Evercore's founder Altman warns that the current agreement is merely a "90-day high tariff suspension" and highlights that the overall tariff rate remains significantly elevated, which could lead to inflationary pressures [4] - The market is experiencing a cognitive restructuring, balancing short-term risk appetite with long-term structural challenges, as the trade agreement may temporarily boost corporate earnings but does not eliminate the risk of renewed trade tensions [4] - The agreement alters the risk pricing logic for investors, necessitating a more sophisticated warning mechanism for asset portfolios as policy uncertainty transitions from acute risks to chronic variables [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma between preventing inflation caused by tariff policies and avoiding excessive tightening that could lead to an economic hard landing [3] - Market expectations indicate a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment despite the Fed's current stance [3] - The PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, slightly below expectations, while the core PCE index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - The trade policies of the Trump administration are creating conflicts that challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve, as tariffs raise import prices and undermine business investment confidence [5][6] - The non-farm payroll report for May indicated an addition of 177,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, but the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, highlighting ongoing economic challenges [6] Group 3 - The global capital allocation strategy is undergoing significant changes, with the dollar index facing depreciation pressure and a slowdown in dollar reserve accumulation by central banks [7] - Emerging market bonds, particularly in Asia, are attracting global capital due to higher yields and stable fundamentals, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows long-term investment value despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4 - dbg markets has introduced three strategies to navigate the complex market environment: establishing a policy shock scenario analysis model, creating dynamic hedging portfolios, and capitalizing on regional economic disparities [8] - The platform emphasizes advanced trading technology and regulatory safeguards, providing a stable trading environment for various asset classes [8] Group 5 - The global financial system is undergoing profound restructuring, and investors are encouraged to seek certainty amid uncertainty as a guiding principle [9] - dbg markets aims to enhance service quality and trading solutions for clients in the evolving landscape of Federal Reserve policy shifts and global economic changes [9]

本次联合声明后，国债收益率曲线陡峭的逻辑或发生一定变化。我们认为短期调整或 进一步打开长期国债赔率空间，建议投资者保持耐心，组合仓位阶段性集中在中短端， 配置盘可趁调整期间倒三角进场建仓或为胜率较高策略。 ❑ 如何理解中美联合声明 5 月 12 日，商务部发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，一方面，中美双方互降 关税力度远超市场预期，即便考虑 4 月前美国因芬太尼问题对中国加征的 20%关 税，特朗普政府上台后中国对美出口所面临的关税税率边际增加值也仅为 30%（已 确定）+24%（暂停 90 天），较双方博弈高峰时期的 145%出现大幅降低。另一方 面，中美双方表示将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商，为后续有效管控贸易 摩擦、进一步推动潜在关税税率调降铺平道路。参考 2018 年中美贸易摩擦发展历 程，本次中美贸易商谈成效之高、节奏之快构成本次声明超预期的主要原因。我 们认为，中国或为本次联合声明的主要赢家。美国内外部环境交困，或迫使特朗 普政府在谈判过程中难以保持强硬态度，而国内充足的政策储备构成支撑宏观经 济的基本盘，自上轮贸易摩擦以来持续走低的对美出口依赖度构成对美经贸谈判 的充足底气，或使得中国在与 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！ 限量发放！ 先到先得！ 美国特朗普政府推出所谓"对等关税"已一月有余，全球资产定价逻辑发生改变。投资者应如何调整 资产配置？对此，中国基金报记者采访了工银国际首席经济学家程实，德意志银行国际私人银行部 亚洲投资策略主管刘佳，知名经济学家洪灏，汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡 正，博时基金（国际）有限公司固定收益部副主管卢里等5位中外资机构人士。 他们表示，地缘政治的不确定性使全球经济更加脆弱。中长期看，资金回流非美经济体有利于全球 经济及金融体系再平衡。中国股市中期牛市格局并未改变，市场将回归正常的估值修复过程。 牛市格局并未改变 程实： 人民币汇率在中长期将呈现总体趋稳、略有升值的态势。首先，中国经济基本面持续改善， 为汇率提供坚实支撑；其次，中外货币政策同步趋于宽松，有助于缓解中美利差收窄带来的压力， 稳定跨境资本流动；最后，人民币国际化进程不断提速，增强了市场的信心。 中国基金报：全球供应链重构将如何影响中国股市？投资者应如何调整行业配置？ 中国基金报：如何评价当前中国经济复苏情况？实现"5%左右"的增长目标的核心支 ...

2025 年 5 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 生猪：近端矛盾不显 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 15000 | -50 | | | 价 格 | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 14650 | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 15290 | -150 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | | 13495 | 15 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | | 13925 | 15 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13625 | 60 | | | | | 单 位 | 成 ...

• 房地产政策自 2023 年起逐步推进现房销售，旨在降低房企风险、保障购 房者权益，但实际落地数量较少，主要受市场调整和房企资金压力影响。 2023 年至今仅 15 宗土地出让涉及现房销售条款，远低于 2016-2022 年 间的 250 宗。 • 商业地产投资逻辑发生变化，市场需求多元化，运营能力提升，科技赋能， 绿色可持续发展成为关键。投资者需更注重项目品质与运营管理，以应对 市场挑战并抓住新的发展机遇，尤其关注消费结构变化及供应端压力。 • 实施现房销售对市场冲击有限，大概率采用新老划断模式，整体供给影响 相对平滑。优质房企具备更强融资能力和存量项目去化能力，受政策影响 较小，并有望通过打造优质产品实现更快去化和更高溢价。 • 2025 年商业地产投资前景积极，政策助力有望迎来更坚实的消费市场。 尽管 2024 年消费市场热度平淡，但四季度以来有所改善。消费结构呈现 务实且个性化趋势，黄金珠宝、运动户外等品类表现良好。 Q&A 现房销售制度的推进对房地产行业有何影响？ 现房销售制度的推进对房地产行业具有深远影响。首先，对于优质房企而言， 影响相对较小，因为这些企业通常具备良好的产品、城市布局和信用，甚 ...