Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of the banking index, the factors driving its growth, and the current valuation, suggesting potential strategies for profit-taking. Group 1: Banking Index Performance - The representative index for the banking industry is the China Securities Banking Index, which has shown significant growth in recent years, particularly from 2019 to 2021, driven by a strong growth style. In contrast, from 2022 to 2024, value styles, including banking and dividend stocks, have gained strength, leading to new highs in index points [5][15]. - The annualized return of the China Securities Banking Index from July 15, 2013, to June 25, 2025, is 6.7%, which increases to 11.31% when considering dividends [15]. Group 2: Banking Industry Characteristics - The banking industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with performance heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions. During economic downturns, banks face increased risk provisions and reduced interest income, while the opposite occurs during economic upturns [7][11][12]. - The banking business model can be simplified to "two incomes and two expenses," which includes interest income, non-interest income, interest expenses, and risk provisions [8][10]. Group 3: Sources of Returns for Banking Index Funds - The three main sources of returns for banking index funds are: 1. **Valuation Improvement**: The price-to-book ratio (P/B) of the China Securities Banking Index increased from 0.87 on May 6, 2019, to 1.14 on June 26, 2025, contributing to returns [23][24]. 2. **Net Asset Growth**: The net assets of banks have been increasing annually since 2014, which is a key driver of the long-term rise in the banking index [27][28]. 3. **Increased Dividends**: The dividend yield for banking stocks has improved significantly due to policies encouraging higher dividend payouts, with total cash dividends reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [30][32][35]. Group 4: Profit-Taking Strategies - Two common profit-taking strategies for banking index funds include: 1. **Profit-Taking Based on Yield**: Consider taking profits when the yield reaches 30% [37]. 2. **Profit-Taking Based on Overvaluation**: Monitor valuations and consider selling when the index is deemed overvalued [40][51]. - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of a strategy involving buying undervalued assets, holding during normal valuations, and selling when overvalued, which has been validated through past market cycles [47][51].

Core Viewpoint - A total of 23 small and medium-sized banks are preparing for A-share IPOs, with recent developments indicating a potential restart of the IPO process for some banks after a prolonged hiatus since early 2022 [2][6]. Group 1: IPO Progress - Dongguan Bank and Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank have resumed their IPO review process after updating their financial documents, which had previously caused their applications to be put on hold [3][4]. - As of July 3, there are 6 banks waiting for A-share IPO approval, including 3 city commercial banks and 3 rural commercial banks, while 16 additional banks are in the listing guidance phase [3][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Dongguan Bank reported a revenue of 10.197 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.733 billion yuan, down 8.2% [4]. - Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank achieved a revenue of 6.429 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 6.3%, but its net profit increased by 2.99% to 2.453 billion yuan [4]. - The total assets of Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank reached 331.69 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an increase of 8.92% [4]. Group 3: Asset Quality - Dongguan Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.01% at the end of 2024, indicating a relatively strong asset quality among city commercial banks [4]. - Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank's NPL ratio was 1.43%, which decreased by 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][5]. Group 4: Market Context - The A-share IPO market for banks has been stagnant for nearly three years, with the last bank, Lanzhou Bank, going public in January 2022 [6]. - The recent developments regarding Dongguan Bank and Nanhai Rural Commercial Bank have reignited interest in the IPO prospects of city and rural commercial banks [7][8].

公开资料显示，东莞银行成立于 1999 年 9 月。 2024 年，受市场变化等因素影响，该行实 现营业收入 101.97 亿元，同比下降 3.69% ；实现净利润 37.33 亿元，同比下滑 8.2% ； 基本每股收益为 1.53 元，同比降幅为 11.56% 。 【导读】 23 家中小银行备战 A 股 IPO 中国基金报记者 王思文 近几年，银行 A 股 IPO 有所停滞，自兰州银行 IPO 之后 " 闸门 " 紧闭。虽有一批银行排队 上市，但迟迟没有实质性进展。 日前， 东莞银行、南海农商行 IPO 审核状态突然出现新动向 ，这让业内重新关注银行 A 股 IPO 重启的进程。 据中国基金报记者统计，截至 7 月 3 日，排队等候 A 股 IPO 的银行共有 6 家，包括 3 家 城商行和 3 家农商行。此外，还有 16 家银行处于上市辅导备案阶段。 新疆银行 亦发布上 市财务顾问服务项目招标文件，开启上市辅导的准备工作。照此计算，谋求登陆 A 股市场的 银行至少有 23 家。 两家银行 IPO 有新进展 近日，深交所发行上市审核信息公开网站显示，东莞银行、南海农商行因更新提交相关财务 资料， IPO 审 ...

未来一年内，整体存量规模将会大幅减少。 今年，银行股表现强劲，随着正股股价的上涨，多只银行可转债触发了强制赎回条款。继苏银转债、成 银转债等触发强赎之后，杭银转债和南银转债也将在7月正式摘牌。与此同时，银行市场再次出现了资 产管理公司（AMC）通过可转债转股增持上市银行股份的情况。 随着银行转债市场迎来"赎回潮"，业内人士预计，银行转债的整体存量规模将大幅减少。今年大约有 1000亿元的银行转债可能会完成转股。这不仅意味着剩余可转债的价格可能会进一步上升，也促使机构 投资者调整其投资策略。 Wind数据显示，2025年中证银行指数累计涨幅高达15.57%，远超大盘平均水平。其中，杭州银行股价 涨幅达18.28%。早在5月，杭州银行股价就突破了杭银转债转股价11.35元的130%强赎线，触发价为 14.76元，导致杭银转债被强制赎回。 南京银行的南银转债也将在7月迎来退市。今年内，南京银行股价累计涨幅达到12.11%。在5月13日至6 月9日的15个交易日里，其收盘价均不低于南银转债转股价格8.22元/股的130%（即10.69元/股），由此 触发了提前赎回条款，正式进入退市流程。 具体而言，南银转债的最后交易 ...

中原银行是 2014 年在开封银行、安阳银行、 鹤壁银行 、新乡银行、濮阳银行、 许昌银行 、漯河 银行、三门峡银行、南阳银行、商丘银行、信阳银行、周口银行和驻马店银行等河南省 13 家城市商业 银行基础上组建而成， 2022 年又吸收合并洛阳银行、平顶山银行和焦作中旅银行 3 家河南省内城市商 业银行。 因此 中原银行是河南省除 郑州 外的其他 16地 市的城商行合并而成。 2 017 年 7 月，中原银行在香港联交所主板挂牌上市 ，股票代码是 1216.HK 。 中原银行在河南省内 17 个地级市和 1 个省辖县级市均设有分行，是分支机构网点覆盖河南全省的 省属法人银行。（而同为河南城商行的 郑州银行在河南三门峡和济源则尚未设有分行 。） 截至2024年末，中原银行总行共有38个一级部门，其中比较有特色的部门有汽车金融中心。中原银 行总行部门设置具体如下图： 此外，中原银行还拥有 1 家消费金融公司（ 河南中原消费金融股份有限公司 ）、 2 家金融租赁公 司（ 邦银金融租赁 股份有限公司 和 洛银金融租赁股份有限公司 ）和 13 家村镇银行。 目前河南省国有企业 ——河南投资集团限公司是中原银行最大股东（ ...

Monetary Policy and Market Rates - The People's Bank of China conducted a 572 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4,521 billion yuan due to 5,093 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor falling by 5.00 basis points to 1.3150%, and the 7-day Shibor decreasing by 4.10 basis points to 1.4560% [1] Interbank Repo Market - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates continued to trend downward, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.8 basis points, respectively, to 1.315% and 1.3714%, while transaction volumes increased significantly [4] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 3.8 basis points and 5.2 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes showing a decrease [4] Funding Conditions - Overall funding conditions were reported to be relaxed, with overnight rates trading in a range of 1.30% to 1.50% and 7-day rates around 1.50% [9] - As of 5:30 PM on July 3, 58 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance amount of 240.1 billion yuan [9] Certificate of Deposit Market - In the primary market for certificates of deposit, yields showed slight declines across various maturities, with trading activity concentrated mainly in the 9-month and 1-year maturities [10] - The 1-year national bank stock ended at approximately 1.595, down about 0.5 basis points from the previous close, indicating a narrowing of yield spreads among different maturities [10] Banking Sector Developments - The Bank of Communications has closed nearly 30 credit card centers this year, with a focus on accelerating the transformation of credit card operations [12] - New policies supporting the conversion of commercial housing loans to housing provident fund loans have been introduced in multiple cities, aimed at reducing financial burdens for homebuyers [12] - China Merchants Bank received approval to establish a financial asset investment company with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing its comprehensive operational capabilities and supporting high-quality development [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (CMB) has received approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration to establish a financial asset investment company (AIC) with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, marking a significant step in the competitive landscape of financial asset investment among joint-stock banks [1][4]. Group 1: Company Developments - CMB's AIC will have a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, surpassing the 10 billion yuan capital of both Industrial Bank and CITIC Bank, indicating CMB's strategic ambition in this sector [2]. - The AIC will primarily engage in market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and equity investment, aiming to provide comprehensive financing support for enterprises and enhance CMB's diversified operational capabilities [2][5]. - CMB plans to focus its AIC on three key areas: technology innovation enterprises, green low-carbon industries, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development [2][6]. Group 2: Industry Context - The establishment of AICs by joint-stock banks represents a shift in China's financial landscape, moving from indirect to direct financing, and reflects the evolving role of commercial banks in comprehensive operations [6][7]. - The approval of AICs for joint-stock banks is expected to enhance their professional capabilities in equity investment and optimize corporate leverage structures, contributing to the overall financial ecosystem [5][6]. - The competitive landscape is likely to intensify, with state-owned banks continuing to dominate large state-owned enterprise projects while joint-stock banks may focus on small and medium-sized enterprises and niche industries [6][7].

Core Insights - The Chinese financial industry is undergoing significant changes in the first half of 2025, with a focus on reform and innovation across banking, insurance, securities, and consumer finance sectors [2] - A total of 13 banks experienced executive changes, with 17 executives transitioning into new roles, highlighting a trend of frequent leadership adjustments [3][4] - There is a notable difference in hiring strategies between state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, with state-owned banks predominantly hiring externally while joint-stock banks favor internal promotions [6][9] Executive Changes - In the first half of 2025, 13 banks saw executive changes, with 17 executives changing positions, including 8 from state-owned banks and 9 from joint-stock banks [3][4] - The position of vice president saw the most changes, with 9 new appointments, accounting for 53% of all changes [3] - Key leadership changes included new chairpersons and presidents at several banks, such as Postal Savings Bank, Guangfa Bank, and Huaxia Bank [3][5] Hiring Strategies - State-owned banks have a strong tendency to recruit from external sources, with 87.5% of new executives coming from outside the organization [6][9] - In contrast, joint-stock banks primarily promote from within, with 78% of new executives being internal promotions [6][9] - This difference in hiring strategies reflects the distinct operational needs and talent pools of state-owned versus joint-stock banks [9] Age Demographics of New Executives - The new executive cohort is predominantly composed of individuals born in the 1970s, who make up nearly 78% of the new appointments in state-owned banks [10] - The youngest new executive is 50 years old, while the oldest is 58, indicating a trend of experienced leadership [10][11] - In joint-stock banks, the age distribution includes both seasoned leaders and younger talent, with a significant presence of 70s-born executives [11]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) remained stable in June despite a peak maturity volume of 4.2 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in the market dynamics compared to earlier months when banks faced liquidity pressures and higher issuance rates [1][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In March, the average issuance rate of interbank CDs exceeded 2.0%, reflecting significant liquidity pressure on banks [1][2]. - By June, the issuance rate stabilized at 1.6557%, showing no significant upward pressure on rates despite high maturity volumes [4][8]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) provided timely liquidity support, which helped maintain stable issuance prices and allowed banks to navigate the high maturity period safely [4][8]. Group 2: Bank Issuance Capacity - Many banks, including state-owned and city commercial banks, are approaching their annual issuance limits, with some banks like Jiangsu Bank reaching a usage rate of 90.43% [5][6]. - The overall demand for increasing issuance limits in the second half of the year may be limited, as banks currently have sufficient capacity to meet their funding needs [1][5][8]. Group 3: Differentiation Among Banks - There is a notable disparity in the usage rates of interbank CDs among different banks, with some banks like China Merchants Bank showing a low usage rate of only 3.73%, indicating less pressure on their liabilities [6][7]. - State-owned banks generally exhibit higher usage rates compared to the same period last year, suggesting a greater need for liability support [7][8]. - Analysts predict that the net financing growth of state-owned banks may accelerate, while the overall pressure on the liability side is expected to remain neutral [7][8].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨苏州银行（002966.SZ） [Table_Title] 国资大股东新一轮增持启动 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 国资大股东持续大额增持，明确看好长期价值。基本面长期稳健，政府类业务拉动信贷加速增 长，存款成本加速改善推缓解净息差压力，风险偏好保守审慎，资产质量指标长期优异，2024 年全年分红比例同比提升 1.4pct 至 32.5%（占归母净利润的比例），推动 DPS 同比提升，今年 一季度可转债完成转股补充资本，支持信贷投放、保障未来分红稳定。目前 2025 年 PB 估值 0.83x、PE 估值 8.2x，预期股息率 4.1%，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 苏州银行（002966.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 国资大股东新一轮增持启动 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...