亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微跌，一度失守3330关口，目前交投于3327.25美元/盎司附近。美国总统特朗 普计划于周一与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会晤，商讨加沙冲突的停火细节，市场避险情绪小幅降温。目前 正临近7月9日关税暂停截止日，市场观望情绪较浓；美国财长周日则暗示，关税重启截止日期改为8月1 日，这也略微削弱市场担忧情绪，另外，本周还将出炉美联储会议纪要，投资者需要重点关注。近期地 缘政治局势的缓和为黄金市场带来了一定的压力。美国总统特朗普计划于周一与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡 会晤，商讨加沙冲突的停火细节。据AXIOS网站报道，双方有望就60天停火期、交换人质等具体条款 达成一致，而以色列此前强硬的立场已有所松动，愿意在哈马斯高级官员的流放问题上做出妥协。这种 地缘政治紧张局势的缓解，短期内可能削弱黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。然而，地缘政治的复杂性决定 了这种缓和可能是短暂的，一旦谈判受阻或冲突再起，黄金的避险需求可能迅速回升。 对于投资者而言，黄金当前的横盘整理可能是布局的良机。短期内，金价可能在3250美元至3456美元区 间内波动，但一旦地缘政治或宏观经济出现新的催化剂，金价有望突破高位，挑战3500美元甚至更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document emphasizes the need for proactive planning and upgrading of the power grid to accommodate large-capacity charging facilities, integrating renewable energy sources like solar power and energy storage systems [1] Group 1: Policy Recommendations - The National Development and Reform Commission and three other departments have issued guidelines to promote the scientific planning and construction of large-capacity charging facilities [1] - Electric grid companies are encouraged to conduct research on the impact of large-capacity charging loads on regional distribution systems and to assess the grid's capacity for integrating these facilities [1] - There is a push for the integration of large-capacity charging facility layout planning with distribution network planning, advocating for timely upgrades and construction of the power grid [1] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - The guidelines support the creation of intelligent and orderly large-capacity charging stations, establishing efficient interaction mechanisms between these stations and the distribution network [1] - It is recommended to build solar power generation and energy storage facilities in a manner that is tailored to local conditions [1] - The document suggests exploring methods to optimize the power access capacity for intelligent large-capacity charging stations, utilizing the distribution network's off-peak capacity effectively [1] Group 3: Market Participation - Charging operation companies are encouraged to engage in electricity market trading and demand response through the adoption of new load management systems [1] - The guidelines highlight the importance of using price signals to promote the high-level consumption of clean energy by electric vehicles [1]

作者丨周群 在拜访经销商的时候，我经常会问经销商老板一个问题，"你在当地的竞争优势是什么？" 两年前，我听到的答案很多都是："我头部品牌多"、"我的薪酬绩效好"、"团队能力强"、"网点覆盖多"等等。 从去年开始，我频繁听到一个新的答案："我的选品能力强"、"我的品类运营做得好"。 我发现，很多经销商朋友开始意识到，会找好商品也是一种核心竞争力。 为什么过去经销商会忽略选品？为什么今天经销商的选品能力变得无比重要？ 过去经销商为什么不重视选品 在过去很长一段时间里，经销商对选品的重视程度并不高，这是由当时的市场环境和行业发展阶段决定的。 一是头部品牌的太强势了。 在品牌主导市场的阶段，市场规则是由头部品牌制定的。消费者对品牌的认知高度集中，市场份额也被少数大品牌垄断。那个时候，也是大单品出现最多 的时代。 对于经销商来说，与其花费精力去选择商品，不如尽全力争取头部品牌的代理权，因为代理头部品牌就最大的竞争优势。 拿到了头部品牌的代理权，经销商就相当于有了稳定的销量和利润。所以那个时候，很多经销商都喜欢称自己"xx品牌经销商"，将其当成是一种荣誉。 而且终端门店也都倾向于进品牌货。原因很简单，一是确实好卖，消费者 ...

Group 1 - The A-share power industry is experiencing a significant rise in stock prices, with Huayin Power achieving a remarkable five consecutive trading limits [1] - Several companies, including Shaoneng Co., Shimao Energy, YN Holdings, and Huadian Liaoning, have reached their daily price limits, indicating strong market performance [1] - The surge in electricity demand is attributed to ongoing high temperatures across multiple regions, driving up consumption [1]

消息面上，石油输出国组织欧佩克（OPEC）在当地时间7月5日表示，鉴于当前市场基本面稳健，石油库存处于低位，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋、科 威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚、阿曼等OPEC+八大主要产油国决定日均增产54.8万桶。 这一决定旨在逐步解除此前220万桶/日的减产计划。2023年11月，上述八国宣布220万桶/日自愿减产措施，此后多次延期至今年3月底。随后，八大主要产 油国决定自4月起逐步增加石油产量，每日增产13.8万桶直至2026年9月，以回撤自愿减产措施。 计划不及变化。在今年4月维持13.8万桶/日增产速度后，这些国家将增产幅度提升至三倍——5至7月每日增产41.1万桶。8月增幅更是达到54.8万桶/日，高于 原油交易商此前普遍预期的41.1万桶/日增产规模。 业内人士预计，若OPEC+在9月仍延续8月增产节奏，始于今年4月的回撤220万桶/日自愿减产计划或将提前一年实现，石油市场供应过剩预期或进一步升 级。 7月7日开盘后，国际油价大幅低开，美国WTI原油期货盘中一度跌超2%，最低下探至65.4美元/桶；布伦特（Brent）原油期货盘中跌超1%，最低下探至 67.22美元/桶。 "最终配额 ...

在行业低迷期，市场往往容易陷入两种极端：要么盲目追逐少数如茅台这样的头部企业为"避风港"，将其神化为万能解药；要么消极观望，以环境为借口 停滞不前。 ●一是行业分工的客观规律。 茅台是白酒行业的顶级品牌，但它的成功建立在高端消费市场，与大众消费市场存在"需求断层"。就像奢侈品巨头LVMH无法解决快消品行业的库存问题 一样，茅台的增长逻辑与行业基本盘有着不同的轨迹。 ●二是资本市场的认知错配。 投资者将茅台视为"避险资产"，本质上是对经济不确定性的恐慌性选择，这种资金虹吸效应导致2023年茅台占白酒板块市值56%，这反而可能加剧了行业 马太效应，挤压中小企业的创新空间。 ●三是社会情绪的投射失真。 茅台本质上只是一个企业，既无义务也无力承担整个行业兴衰的责任。将行业困境的解决寄托于某个"标杆企业"身上，本质上是一种逃避现实的懒惰思 维。我们需要更清醒地认识到，行业的突围从来靠的不是"救世主"，而是每个参与者的主动作为，这是一种清醒的生存智慧，更是穿越周期的核心竞争 力。 茅台为何"担不起"？商业本质的五个真相 如果罗列出责任清单，从不同维度去看责任归属可能更清晰——也即目前酒类市场存在的问题：去产能标准、税收梯 ...

印度汽车经销商协会联盟（FADA）：短期内，超出正常水平的季风降雨预计将提振农村地区的需求。 随着我们进入2025年7月，经销商情绪似乎倾向于（认为市场会）放缓。 ...

研究报告 鸡蛋周报 淡旺季转折期博弈升温，蛋价在供需错配中寻找方向 华龙期货投资咨询部 农产品板块研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周鸡蛋期货主力合约 JD2508 震荡运行，盘面多空博弈加 剧，截至上周五报收 3582 元/500 千克，总成交量 125885 手，持 仓 184136 手，周涨幅 1.1%。 研究报告 一、走势回顾 （一）期货价格 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 7 日星期一 上周鸡蛋主产区均价 2.70 元/斤，环比下降 6.25%，主销区 均价 2.76 元/斤，环比下降 2.47%。上周主产区价格先跌后稳， 周初受湿热天气制约，鸡蛋存储难度加大，各环节购销相对谨慎 积极出货，市场情绪偏弱，蛋价承压走低，随着蛋价跌至低位， 贸易商、冷库、食品企业入库支撑，叠加养殖端低价抵触心态， 蛋价下方支撑较强。目前在产蛋鸡存栏量仍处高位，供应压力显 著，产能去化不充分 ...

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, petrochemical demand will account for 24% of total oil demand, up from 22% in 2024 and 20% in 2019, with the petrochemical industry becoming the main driver of global oil demand growth starting in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Petrochemical Demand Growth - From 2019 to 2024, the consumption of petrochemical feedstocks derived from oil is estimated to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day, representing over 95% of the net growth in oil demand [1] - The IEA anticipates an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.1% in oil consumption as petrochemical feedstocks from 2024 to 2030 [1] - The demand for LPG/ethane and naphtha in China is expected to grow at rates of 2.5% and 4.6% per year, respectively, leading to an increase of 1.1 million barrels per day in petrochemical feedstock demand from 2024 to 2030 [1] Group 2: NGLs Supply and Demand - Global NGLs production is projected to increase by 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, reaching 10.1 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly half of the total growth in global oil production [3] - The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Canada currently dominate NGLs supply, holding 84% of the market share, which is expected to rise to 88% by 2030 [3] - U.S. NGLs production is forecasted to grow from 6.9 million barrels per day in 2024 to 7.8 million barrels per day by 2030 [3] Group 3: LPG and Refining Industry Impact - From 2024 to 2030, total LPG consumption is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels per day, reaching 11.8 million barrels per day, primarily driven by rising petrochemical demand [4] - The report indicates that the refining capacity has significantly exceeded the demand for refined products expected by 2030, potentially leading to more refinery closures [4] - Petrochemical products used for plastics and synthetic fibers are projected to account for approximately 75% of the net growth in global oil demand in 2024, with their share of total oil consumption rising from 15.8% to 17.4% by 2030 [4] Group 4: Overall Oil Demand and Supply Outlook - Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, reaching a stable level of approximately 105.5 million barrels per day by 2030 [4] - During the same period, global oil production capacity is projected to increase by over 5 million barrels per day, reaching 114.7 million barrels per day [4] - The annual growth rate of oil demand is expected to slow from approximately 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 to minimal growth in the following years [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates that cobalt production cuts are gradually being realized, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices due to tightening supply conditions [1][6][98] - The report maintains a bullish stance on strategic metals, particularly recommending rare earths and antimony due to their rigid supply characteristics and potential for value reassessment [6][84] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 32,393.83 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 30,354.97 billion yuan [2] - In May, the production of electric vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, marking a 35% growth [22][24] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced robust growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 150% increase year-on-year [19] Cobalt Market Analysis - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its export ban on cobalt for an additional three months, which is expected to further tighten supply and drive prices upward [6][98] - In June, the production of electrolytic cobalt was reported at 2,730 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][106] - The price of standard-grade MB cobalt was reported at $15.78 per pound, down 0.79% from the previous period, while alloy-grade MB cobalt increased by 1.31% to $19.35 per pound [17][98] Rare Earth Market Insights - The report highlights that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with the domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 446,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase [6][82] - The strategic value of rare earths is being reassessed due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, which are expected to lead to a more concentrated supply structure [84] Lithium Market Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, with a current price of 62,300 yuan per ton, up 2.05% [43][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices have slightly decreased by 0.74%, currently at 60,100 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate prices increased by 3.80% to $653 per ton [44][70] Antimony and Other Metals - Antimony remains in a tight supply situation, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% [6][8] - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin prices at 267,300 yuan per ton, down 0.60%, while LME tin prices increased by 0.61% to $33,770 per ton [6][8]