Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]

Economic Growth Forecast - Spain's government and central bank increased economic growth forecasts for 2025 [1] - Spain is recognized as the region's top major performer following a strong second quarter [1]

Global equities are likely to rally even higher as a jump in economic growth expectations is keeping stock bulls firmly in control, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett https://t.co/tZ21goU1kP ...

Group 1: China’s Economic Initiatives - China is rolling out policies to invigorate service consumption and tourism, including issuing 5-year multiple-entry visas to a broader range of individuals and extending business hours for tourist attractions and museums [2][3][9] - The country aims to expand pilot programs in strategic sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to attract global capital and open up the economy [3][9] - China plans to promote international sporting events, targeting a total scale of the sports industry to exceed 7 trillion yuan ($982 billion) by 2030, as part of its strategy to make domestic demand the primary engine of economic growth [3][9] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Stance - The ECB is maintaining a cautious approach to future interest rate adjustments, with Governing Council member Scicluna stating that there are no planned cuts, emphasizing a data-dependent approach [4][9] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - Ford Motor Company is set to cut 1,000 jobs at its Cologne plant in Germany in early 2026 as part of a broader restructuring effort across Europe, with a total workforce reduction of approximately 4,000 employees by 2027 [5][9]

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]

Economic Outlook - Investors are concerned about slowing job growth and tariff-related costs [1] - Investors anticipate that tax cuts and falling interest rates will stimulate economic growth [1]

China’s retail sales and factory output grew last month at the slowest pace this year, deepening concern over the health of the world’s second-largest economy: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/7koGsfWb3T ...

Job numbers may be soggy, but Americans are still spending, retail sales look solid and stockmarkets keep hitting all-time highs. The country’s economic picture is surprisingly strong https://t.co/GB8dCW6KMY ...

In the rosiest scenario artificial general intelligence will arrive and usher in a new world of economic growth of perhaps 20% a year.More mundane scenarios should also be considered, however https://t.co/R7bD5mWwlb ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals with strong GDP growth and record stock market highs contrasted by weak job reports and rising inflation [1] - President Trump's tariffs are causing concerns regarding their impact on consumer prices, GDP growth, and the labor market [1] GDP Growth and Economic Projections - Tariffs could lead to a GDP growth decline of approximately 0.9 percentage points by 2025, with long-term effects potentially reducing annual real GDP by about 0.6% [3] - A long-run GDP drop of around 6% is projected, along with wage reductions of roughly 5% [3] Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariffs are expected to raise inflation by about 0.4 percentage points in both 2025 and 2026, reducing household and business purchasing power [4] - Tariffs are described as functioning like taxes, leading to higher business costs that are typically passed on to consumers [4] Labor Market Trends - There is a sustained slowdown in job creation, with only 22,000 jobs added in August 2025 and a decline of 12,000 manufacturing jobs [5] - Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating ongoing job losses in sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and construction [5][6] Financial Market Reactions - Stock markets reacted sharply to the announcement of broad tariffs in April 2025, with significant declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [7] Revenue vs. Economic Costs - While tariffs are generating significant federal revenues, economic models suggest that the losses in GDP and wages outweigh these gains [8]