Market Trends & Investment Strategies - AI leadership is shifting from buildout and chips to utilization phase, potentially impacting earnings [2] - Tech stocks have experienced outflows for six consecutive weeks, with the last four-week rolling average being the lowest since June 2021 [3] - Investors are becoming more selective in the tech sector, potentially impacting energy and chip stocks due to valuation and execution speed concerns [4][5] - Bonds are seen as compelling with yields around 4%, offering stability and income potential, leading to a more neutral posture [10][12] - Broadening out in the market, with areas like healthcare and small cap showing potential for gains in the years ahead [14] Economic Outlook - The economy is growing but slowing, with stall speed below 15% posing a risk to earnings growth [8] - The pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts is crucial as the economy decelerates [9] - Job cuts and a potentially weaker jobs report next month raise concerns about the broader economy [7][8] Potential Risks - High valuations in equities require perfect earnings delivery [12] - Upcoming decisions on tariffs and potential weakness in the labor market due to AI pose risks [13]

Paul, good to see you. How are you coping after almost a year of Trump. >> I'm not in despair, which, you know, a year ago I feared I might be.Politically, there's some serious push back to Trump. Economically, we have so far skirted catastrophe, although there are problems out there. So, it's kind of a weird state of suspension.We're seeing uh a lot of institutions behaving, you know, with with great cowardice, but a lot of ordinary people standing up for what America is supposed to be. The fact that the b ...

Will retail sales in China suffer from a period of “payback”? Will the trade war with America throw the economy off course? And will the property market recover?These are the three big questions China will face in 2026 https://t.co/6Vm8pVioE6 ...

As American shoppers buy less packaged foods, Big Food has leaned on a familiar excuse: It’s the economy, stupid. ⁠That explanation misses a crucial shift. Middle- and high-income Americans are still splurging, just not on legacy labels. 🔗 https://t.co/oUW1DPFCe1 https://t.co/IyNILoZJ05 ...

Here's where we are heading into the holidays. Donald Trump in the midst of what is clearly measurably the worst month of his second term. And usually presidents face this kind of hell month later in the term. So it's bad news coming earlier than usual, which is also bad news as there are cries of a lame duck presidency. Consider within the last day Trump's revenge cases completely blowing up. And remember, this is not like they made it to trial and James Comey found sympathetic jurors. This is not like the ...

Australia’s core inflation came in stronger than anticipated in October, suggesting the Reserve Bank will remain on the sidelines as it tries to assess whether the economy is running beyond its speed limit https://t.co/j4HtuJBPDt ...

As the White House welcomes turkeys to the nation's capital and tries to avoid becoming a lame duck presidency after a series of setbacks that have raised questions of whether the president may be approaching the limits of his influence over his own party. Right now, the president's standing with the public is in perilous political territory with an approval rating that is significantly underwater across recent major polls. had his message on affordability has run a foul of voters even as he again lauded th ...

With ten-year gilt yields already over 4.5%, the room for error is thin. To judge whether Rachel Reeves’s budget will genuinely support Britain’s economy, consider these three tests https://t.co/NGOi2LAzoe ...

Trump is just really on the defensive right now. He has not had a good few weeks between the Epstein files and and Republicans defying him on that. Uh Republicans sort of not going along on the hill with his idea of the filibuster.Democrats swept a bunch of elections in early November. And so he is looking for ways to juice the economy ahead of the midterms. And we've seen him do that with the checks idea.We've seen them have to roll back some tariffs on some key agricultural products like um coffee, banana ...

Economic Concerns & Projections - The US child-free population constitutes 25% of the total population, which is perceived as a potential economic challenge due to the need for constant growth [1] - Current economic and social security systems rely on constant growth, requiring new generations to support the elderly and a rising GDP [6] - HSBC projects a potential 4% drop in GDP over the next 20 years if fertility rates remain constant and lifespans increase, potentially leading to a sustained recession or depression and the collapse of Social Security [7] Societal Perspectives & Challenges - Child-free individuals often face judgment and are seen as deviants for not adhering to the traditional American dream of marriage, homeownership, and having children [8][9] - Some perceive child-free individuals as not contributing to the population, especially in areas with demographic cliffs where deaths exceed births [9] - The default societal expectation is to have children, influenced by family, society, culture, and religion [11] Alternative Solutions & Perspectives - The speaker challenges the notion that having more children is the only solution to declining fertility rates [10] - Legal immigration is presented as one option to maintain population growth, noting that the US fertility rate is about 16%, while a rate of 21% is needed to sustain population growth [16] - Embracing child-free people and sustainable growth is proposed as an alternative, which would require significant changes to core economic, social, and political systems [17] - Shifting from GDP as the primary measure of economic success to measures of happiness and balance is suggested [23] Government & Organizational Initiatives - Some countries, like Hungary and Japan, have implemented programs to encourage people to have children, such as income tax savings for families with children [13] - The US Department of Transportation is considering preferential treatment for states with higher fertility and marriage rates, and the White House is exploring incentives like \$5,000 per child born and awards for families with six or more children [14] - The Heritage Foundation has advocated for a "Manhattan project" to encourage marriage and childbirth [15]