Core Insights - The total value of goods exported from the EU to the US in March reached €71.4 billion (approximately $80 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 59% [1] - This surge resulted in a trade surplus of €40.7 billion for the EU with the US, marking a historical high [1] - The increase in exports is largely attributed to exporters taking preemptive measures to ship goods to US ports in order to avoid potential tariffs threatened by the Trump administration, indicating a distortion in global trade flows due to recent policy changes [1]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 16 日 热点品种 沥青： 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升 5.6 个百分点至 34.4%，较去年同期高了 7.9 个百分点，沥青开工率继续回升，升至近年同期中性水平。据隆众资讯数据，5 月份预计排产 231.8 万吨，环比增加 2.9 万吨，增幅为 1.3%，同比增加 3 万吨， 增幅为 1.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比持 平于 27%，略超过去两年同期水平，但仍处于偏低位，受到资金制约。本周华东 地区因主力炼厂船发为主，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 7.23%至 24.48 万吨，处于中性偏低位。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续小幅上升，但仍处于 近年来同期的最低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受制约，沥青实际需求仍 有待恢复。近期美国持续加大对伊朗原油出口的制裁，不过伊朗核协议或将签署。 关注美国对伊朗原油的制裁是否会放松。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球 贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，原油波动较大，供需双 ...

商务部副部长李成钢：APEC成员应携手维护国际经贸秩序稳定 坚决反对单边主义和保护主义 金十数据5月16日讯，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长出席亚太经合组织第三十一届贸易部长会议。 李成钢表示，近期个别经济体实施所谓"对等关税"、挑起全球贸易摩擦，严重违反世贸组织规则，冲击 多边贸易体制，引发全球经济动荡，很多贸易伙伴都表达强烈不满和明确反对。APEC成员应携手维护 国际经贸秩序稳定，践行真正的多边主义，坚决反对单边主义和保护主义，客观看待、妥善处理单边关 税措施引发的全球贸易失序，确保全球贸易在世贸组织框架下顺畅运行。 相关链接 ...

韩国通商交涉本部长郑仁教：亚太经合组织联合声明是克服全球贸易不确定性的积极信号。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 中美经贸磋商提速，全球贸易政策博弈持续 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的是，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月14日央行发布 2025 年前四个月社会融资规模增量数据，显示金融对实体经 济支持力度加大。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进 展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制。国务院关税税则委发布公告：自2025年5月14日12时01分起，对 美进口商品加征关税税率由34%降至10%，暂停24% ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with prices fluctuating significantly due to mixed factors including easing trade tensions and upcoming U.S. economic data that may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices dropped to a low of $3120 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, before rebounding to around $3190 per ounce [1] - The market is highly sensitive to fundamental news, and without clear driving factors, prices are likely to remain in a range-bound pattern [1] - Technical indicators suggest a potential shift to a bullish trend, with a golden cross forming in the 2-hour moving average system and MACD indicators showing bullish signals [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A buy strategy is recommended for gold in the $3200-$3205 range, with a stop loss at $3192 and a target of $3220-$3240 [2] - A sell strategy is suggested for gold in the $3220-$3225 range, with a stop loss at $3233 and a target of $3210-$3200 [3] - The overall strategy emphasizes buying on dips while also considering short opportunities at key resistance levels, with important resistance noted at $3215-$3225 and support at $3175-$3165 [4]

欧盟贸易和经济安全事务专员塞夫科维奇：与美国商务部长卢特尼克达成协议，将加快谈判进程。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 ...

欧元区经济2025年开局的增长不及初步估计水平，而这甚至还是在美国加征关税之前 —— 新关税料将 在未来几个月削弱经济活动。欧盟统计局周四公布，欧元区第一季度经济环比增长0.3%，增速低于早 先估计的0.4%，但仍高于经济学家在初值发布时的预测。该地区的前景因美国上个月的关税及其他措 施而蒙上阴影。虽然美国总统唐纳德·特朗普后来有所退让，但企业和家庭面临着全球贸易不确定性的 加剧，这可能会削弱投资和消费。 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices continued to decline, trading around $3133, following a drop of over 2% on Wednesday, reaching a low of $3167.94 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, closing at $3177.32 per ounce. This decline was attributed to increased risk appetite due to improved trade sentiment, leading investors to exit the gold market [1] - The US dollar index rebounded, rising 0.08% to 101.04, while US Treasury yields reached a six-week high, with the 10-year yield surpassing the critical 4.5% level at 4.536%. Changes in interest rate expectations have diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased to 74%, down from earlier expectations of a potential cut in July [1] Trade Relations - The immediate catalyst for the drop in gold prices was the easing of global trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to significantly reduce tariffs and pausing tariff imposition for 90 days. This positive news boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in major Wall Street indices as investors shifted from safe-haven assets to higher-risk investments. President Trump's comments about potential agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea further bolstered market confidence [2] Geopolitical Risks - Despite the easing trade tensions, geopolitical risks remain. Trade negotiations between the EU and the US are progressing slowly, with significant differences in agreement scope. The EU's trade commissioner has stated that they will not accept an unfair agreement under pressure. The US has imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, threatening to expand the scope of tariffs. The $9.5 trillion trade and investment relationship between the US and EU faces serious challenges, which could potentially revive gold's safe-haven demand [4] Market Dynamics - The recent adjustment in the gold market reflects both improved risk sentiment and profit-taking by investors following previous gains. The price of gold is likely to remain volatile due to the interplay of trade dynamics, monetary policy, and economic data. Investors should pay attention to the upcoming US April PPI data and retail sales figures, as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cut expectations [4] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold recorded a significant bearish candle, reinforcing a short-term bearish structure. The price tested a one-month low around $3167 before stabilizing, indicating potential further declines. Traders should monitor the support level at $3150, with a risk of dropping to around $3060. In the 1-4 hour timeframe, the price has extended its decline after breaking below $3200, with ongoing tests around the $3130 level [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices continue to decline, reaching a low of $3120 per ounce, the lowest since April 10, despite a weak US dollar and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The immediate trigger for the drop in gold prices is the easing of global trade tensions, which has led to a temporary improvement in risk sentiment and stable monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] - Current gold prices are at a critical support level, with potential for a rapid decline to $3100 or lower if upcoming US PPI data and comments from Powell are hawkish [2] Group 2 - After breaking below the key support level of $3200, gold has also fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a clear bearish signal [3] - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ show increasing bearish momentum, while RSI has entered negative territory, suggesting that downward momentum is not yet over [3] - If gold fails to hold the $3100 support level, the next target could be $3075 [4] Group 3 - In the crude oil market, prices opened at $63.63 and experienced fluctuations, ultimately closing at $62.86, indicating a bearish trend [5] - The analysis suggests a target range for oil prices between $61.0 and $60.7, with a stop loss set at $62.4 [5]