Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the market experienced a significant increase in indices, but a subsequent decline in bank stocks suggests potential risks due to rapid price increases [1] - The rare simultaneous inflow of institutional and main funds into aggressive sectors indicates a possible bullish trend for small-cap stocks next week [1] - The performance of the securities sector is crucial, as it remained stable during the market downturn, supporting small-cap stocks [1] Group 2 - The rare occurrence of a strong performance in the rare earth sector, driven by positive news and price increases, suggests it may continue to perform well next week [1] - The technology sector, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 index, has lagged but shows signs of recovery, potentially leading to a rebound in tech stocks [1] - The market sentiment may shift towards small-cap stocks if banks continue to decline, indicating a possible resurgence for mid and small-cap stocks [1]

周四，高盛宏观交易部门顶级交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，人工智能、银行股、英伟达、中国股市、 比特币和铜价均出现突破，显示强劲动能。当前夏季"融涨行情"（害怕错过上涨而盲目跟风买入）尚未 被市场充分定价，投资者应"顺势而为，不要逆势操作"。 Schiavone认为，三大周期共振营造牛市环境，美国正处于商业周期的中后期阶段，无衰退迹象且盈利 增长强劲，同时降息预期仍存。市场情绪周期正转向积极但尚未达到狂热状态，仍有上涨空间。 Schiavone指出，随着波动率重新回落，在盈利增长支撑下，股市估值倍数有望获得扩张空间。他认 为，如果美联储政策转向与已经宽松的金融环境相结合，将为"融涨交易"创造理想条件。目前风险资产 投资者正积极寻找回调机会以增加风险敞口。 多重利好因素推动风险资产上涨，高盛交易员预测今年夏季将出现"融涨行情"。 情绪周期方面， 市场转向更加积极但仍未达到狂热状态，为进一步上涨留下空间。 结构性周期则显示 ，低宏观波动率加上数字生产力繁荣，类似于1990年代的环境。 高盛的风险偏好指标显示，当前正经历历史上最急剧的复苏之一，这种快速反弹应当受到重视，且类似 于2020年的表现。 值得一 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 棉花（纱）市场周报 棉花偏强震荡，关注天气和宏观 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 行情分析： 本周郑棉主力2509合约上涨，周度涨幅约0.76%。棉纱期货2509合约上涨0.47%。 行情展望：国际方面，美国棉花出口销售报告不如预期，且近期天气利于作物生长， 美国棉花优良率上升，抑制美棉价格，市场等待USDA公布月度供需报告。美国对 日本、韩国等国家的进口产品征收关税，且特朗普曾威胁对金砖国家加征10%新关 税，警惕宏观因素风险。国内方面，纺织行业消费淡季特征显现，企业新增订单表 现不佳，整体开机率缓慢下调，企业对原材料的采购谨慎。据Mysteel农产品数据 监测，截至7月10日，主流地区纺企开机负荷在70.40%，环比下降0.84%，开机整 体变化不大。棉花处于去库存状态，且新疆部分地区有高温天气，棉花遭遇高温热 害风险较高，这些因素支持价格偏强波动，只是需求因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently influenced by a combination of strong U.S. labor market data and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve interest rate policies, leading to a high volatility environment for silver prices [3]. Group 1: Silver Price Movement - As of July 11, 2025, the spot silver price is trading at $37.43 per ounce, with a daily range between $36.87 and $37.48 [1][2]. - The opening price for silver today was $36.99 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data has shown strong performance, with initial jobless claims dropping to 227,000, indicating a robust labor market [3]. - The expectation for an immediate interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has decreased significantly due to these labor market indicators [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Silver is currently experiencing dual influences: inflows of safe-haven funds and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which are limiting bullish positions in silver [3]. - Trade tensions, particularly Trump's new tariff threats, including a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, are adding to economic uncertainty and potential inflation concerns [3]. Group 4: Trading Strategy - A bullish trading strategy is suggested, with a focus on maintaining long positions if silver stabilizes around the $36.8 level and breaks above $37.2, targeting $37.5 [4].

瑞达期货研究院 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 白糖市场周报 内强外内格局凸显， 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 行情分析： 3 本周郑糖2509合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.4%。 国际方面，季风雨季来临，亚洲主要产糖国供应前景良好，加上巴西出口量 同比增加，供应偏松预期抑制原糖价格，不过巴基斯坦计划进口50万吨以及 以及机构调查数据显示6月下半月巴西中南部地区糖产量同比减少，为原糖带 来短期支撑。巴西船运机构Williams数据显示，截至7月9日当周，巴西港口 等待装运食糖的船只数量为90艘，此前一周为80艘。港口等待装运的食糖数 量为368.55万吨，此前一周为320.59万吨。国内方面，内外价格走势分化， 配额外利润窗口打开，进口压力将释放，压制糖价。需求端，夏季消费旺季， 食品饮料行业存有备货需求，冷饮等季节性消费回暖，为价格带来一定支撑。 总体来说，近期国内白糖走势跟随原糖反复波动，不过国内需求回升， ...

瑞达期货研究院 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 「2025.07.11」 生猪市场周报 价格上涨步伐放慢，出栏节奏是关键 3 行情回顾：生猪价格小幅上涨，主力合约周度上涨0.28%。 行情展望：供应端，中旬规模场出栏有所增加，但当前出栏节奏仍为缓慢，散户亦有惜售情绪，且出 栏均重下降，短期供应偏紧格局犹存。三季度对应母猪产能处于增产周期，中期仍有供应压力。需求 端，高温抑制人们采购猪肉意愿，且学校放假，终端走货速度缓慢，屠宰厂开机率连续回落，不过高 于去年同期。总体来说，消费淡季，需求稳中趋弱，养殖端出栏节奏和二育入场情况是影响短期行情 的关键因素。目前供应仍然偏紧，支持价格偏强震荡，不过中旬出栏量或有所恢复，上涨步伐或放慢， 关注出栏节奏，中期而言，需求淡季以及中期供应压力因素将掣肘价格上方空间。 策略建议：区间交易或9-1正套交易。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货小幅上涨 图1、大连生猪期货价 ...

Group 1 - The market has not shown any signals indicating the end of the upward trend, and the recent fluctuations are seen as a consolidation behavior, suggesting that the market can continue to rise next week [1][2] - Despite the pullback in the major indices, there has been no significant outflow of capital from the market, indicating that buying pressure remains strong [1] - The market is still above the 5-day moving average and key breakout levels, which supports the continuation of the upward trend [1] Group 2 - The recent pullback is primarily observed in the banking sector, which has experienced significant gains recently, while other sectors such as metals, brokerage, rare earths, and pharmaceuticals continue to show upward momentum [2] - The presence of strong buying interest in various sectors suggests that the overall market trend is not ending, but rather experiencing a temporary correction [2] - The current market behavior is characterized as a short-term consolidation, with expectations for further upward movement in the coming week [2]

"过去两年，中国消费者喜欢的品牌形象和品牌叙事都发生了很大变化。在不确定的环境 中， 不管在国内还是国外，消费者对高冷、严肃、正襟危坐的品牌形象都表现出更少的喜 爱度。而一个相对成熟、可靠、稳重、平易近人的品牌更容易走近消费者。"7月10日，在由 南方都市报举办的"2025高品质消费品牌TOP100生态大会"上，英敏特亚太区洞察高级副总 裁徐如一分享了近期对消费者的相关研究。 她提到，在今天"卷"中求新、消费者口味变化 的时代里，把握长消费周期的变化、挖掘差异化消费需求、在存量市场中找到创新点、注重 情绪共鸣正成为品牌的破局之道。 在今天"卷"中求新、消费者口味变化的时代里，怎样真正打动消费者？徐如一表示，如果年轻人喜欢玩 梗，品牌就要开得起玩笑。"比如京东外卖最近就因为网友对'猪猪侠'的调侃回应了一波民间创意，不 光推出外卖联名IP，还把网友的调侃做成一个角色设定。" 品牌创新这件事情又要怎么做？徐如一提到，目前，情绪共鸣正在成为创新的突破口，这背后连接的不 是某个年龄段，而是一种跨代际的消费心态，品牌应把握好长周期的变化；另外，品牌也可以利用差异 化挖掘需求的方式来做到破局。她表示，比如，利用"童趣"来打 ...

Core Insights - Kevin Kelly, known as K.K., discusses his new book "2049: The Possibilities of the Next 10,000 Days," which envisions a hopeful future 25 years from now, covering various aspects such as technology, society, and the role of China in the world [4][5][7][8]. Group 1: Future Scenarios and Predictions - K.K. emphasizes that the book is not about making predictions but constructing scenarios that explore optimistic futures, including advancements in AI and technology [10][11]. - The book aims to inspire readers to actively imagine and work towards a desirable future rather than passively waiting for it to happen [12][13]. - K.K. believes that technology is a double-edged sword, and while it can bring positive changes, it also poses challenges that need to be addressed [7][15]. Group 2: Education and Workforce - K.K. argues that education systems must adapt to a future where lifelong learning and AI assistance are the norms, emphasizing the importance of teaching students how to learn effectively [18][19]. - He suggests that the focus should be on developing the ability to ask good questions and optimize learning processes rather than acquiring specific knowledge or skills [19][21]. - K.K. reassures that AI will not replace jobs but will change the nature of work, encouraging graduates to pursue their passions rather than solely focusing on financial rewards [22][24]. Group 3: Media and Content Creation - K.K. asserts that the media industry will still require human journalists to manage AI-generated content and ensure accountability [26][30]. - He predicts that new forms of content creation will emerge, including immersive experiences that enhance the way news is reported [27][28]. - K.K. advises content creators to remain adaptable and willing to experiment with new formats and technologies to stay relevant in the evolving landscape [30][31]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - K.K. identifies five key technologies that will shape the future: robotics, autonomous driving, space exploration, life sciences, and brain-computer interfaces [49]. - He expresses skepticism about the widespread adoption of humanoid robots in households, suggesting they will first be used in controlled environments like warehouses [51][55]. - K.K. believes that while autonomous vehicles will become more prevalent, the need for human drivers will still exist, albeit in a more specialized capacity [57][58]. Group 5: The "Mirror World" Concept - K.K. introduces the idea of a "mirror world," where augmented reality will blend the physical and digital realms, facilitated by smart glasses [32][34]. - He outlines four layers of this mirror world, including virtual reality experiences, spatial digital avatars, and enhanced environments for AI interactions [35][36][39]. - K.K. predicts that the development of this mirror world will depend on the affordability and efficiency of AI technology [37][40]. Group 6: Future of Smart Glasses - K.K. anticipates that the competition in the smart glasses market will be fierce, with potential for Chinese companies to emerge as leaders due to their manufacturing advantages [42][46]. - He highlights the significant technical challenges that need to be overcome for smart glasses to become mainstream, including battery life and user experience [43][45]. - K.K. believes that the timeline for achieving widely accepted smart glasses could extend to 10-25 years [46]. Group 7: Societal Implications of AI and Longevity - K.K. discusses the potential for AI to contribute to longer, healthier lives, while also acknowledging the societal challenges posed by an aging population [70][71]. - He emphasizes the need for innovative solutions to address the demographic shifts, particularly in cultures with a high proportion of elderly individuals [72][73]. - K.K. expresses cautious optimism about advancements in life sciences, suggesting that breakthroughs in health technology could lead to significant improvements in quality of life [68][69].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 近期去产能反内卷政策带动市场情绪转强，预期有所改善。供需层面，螺 | | 螺纹钢 | 偏强 | 纹产量表需环比均回落，总库存小幅下降，淡季特征明显。铁水产量降至 | | | 240 | 万吨以下，绝对水平仍然较高。目前交易由产业逻辑切换至宏观情绪及 | | | | 政策预期逻辑，基差修复背景下行情偏强运行。【3120，3160】 | | | | 热卷产量及表需环比均小幅回落，库存变化不大。供需总体相对平衡，基 | | 热卷 | 偏强 | 本面矛盾有限，当前宏观情绪较强，同时有部分地区限产减产消息，情绪 | | | | 及预期交易下偏强运行。【3260，3300】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量转降，预计后期铁水缓慢下行。供给端发货冲 | | | | 量结束，到货仍有增量。港口累库，钢厂刚需补库，整体供需结构中性。 | | 铁矿石 | 区间参与 | 反内卷再提，对黑色行业影响有限，短期主要体现为情绪性交易。观点： | | | | 短期区间参与，中期布局空单。【750,780】 | | | | 焦炭基 ...