美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年率修正值 2.8%，前值2.8%。 ...

金十数据5月29日讯，"美联储传声筒"NickTimiraos表示，美联储官员在本月早些时候的会议上表示，他 们担心大幅提高关税会推高物价，并可能引发更高的通胀。最新的会议纪要显示，政策制定者基本上一 致认为，经济不确定性加剧，失业率和通胀风险增加，不应改变他们的观望政策立场。会议纪要表 示："与会者一致认为，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加，因此在政府政策一系列变化的净经济影响变 得更加清晰之前，采取谨慎态度是合适的。"在3月中旬至5月初的官员会议期间，特朗普提高了对大多 数美国贸易伙伴的关税，随后暂停了一些最激进的加税。 "美联储传声筒"：美联储会议纪要凸显对物价上涨的担忧 ...

特朗普：所有的杂货、鸡蛋以及你们一直在听说的其他东西，价格都已经大幅度下降了，远低于之前的 水平。 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia increased by 0.06% week-on-week for the week ending May 26, compared to a 0.07% increase for the week ending May 19 [1] - The CPI has risen by 3.34% year-to-date in 2025, up from a previous increase of 3.27% [1] - In April, the industrial output prices increased by 1.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The producer prices decreased by 1.4% month-on-month in April, while they increased by 1.5% year-on-year [1]

美联储调查：对地方和国家经济的看法在2024年有所改善，但仍为负面。公众认为通胀和物价是2024年 最关心的金融问题。有73%的美国人表示财务状况还可以或感到舒适，与2023年基本持平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand expresses uncertainty regarding the impact of tariff policies on the New Zealand economy, indicating a moderate recovery due to tariffs and global uncertainties [1] Economic Growth - Economic growth of major trading partners is below potential levels for 2025 [1] - The economy is beginning to recover, but the recovery is expected to be moderate due to tariffs and global uncertainties [1] Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point interest rate cut aligns with the goal of medium-term price stability, passed with a 5:1 vote [1] - The effects of previous rate cuts will take time to fully materialize [1] Inflation Dynamics - Inflation expectations have risen, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) within the target range, indicating idle capacity in the economy [1] - Core inflation is on a downward trend [1] - Global tariffs are expected to alleviate inflationary pressures in the economy, although the impact of tariffs on inflation remains highly uncertain [1] Policy Response - The committee is fully capable of responding to domestic and international conditions to maintain medium-term price stability [1]

Economic Overview - Jinan's economy shows a stable and improving trend in the first four months of the year, supported by precise policies and macroeconomic coordination [1] Industrial Production - The city's industrial output increased by 9.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in the computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing sector at 103.0%, and automotive manufacturing at 39.5% [1] - Equipment manufacturing grew by 27.2%, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 18.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech manufacturing also performed well, with a 26.1% increase in output, contributing 4.9 percentage points to the overall industrial growth [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.4% year-on-year, with the primary industry seeing a substantial increase of 210.6% and the secondary industry growing by 14.7% [2] - Industrial investment grew by 13.8%, contributing 2.3 percentage points to the overall investment growth [2] - High-tech industry investment increased by 13.8%, while real estate development investment declined by 2.0% [2] Service Sector Performance - The service sector's revenue reached 1111.8 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, with nine out of ten major industries reporting revenue growth [3] - The transportation, storage, and postal services sector generated 469.5 billion yuan, accounting for 42.2% of the service sector's total revenue, and grew by 6.4% [3] - The rental and business services sector also performed well, with a revenue increase of 14.2% [3] Retail Sales and Consumer Behavior - Retail sales in Jinan reached 654.2 billion yuan, a 3.0% increase year-on-year, with urban retail sales growing by 3.2% [4] - The sales of communication equipment surged by 71.2% due to the "trade-in" policy, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.9% [4] - Online retail sales grew significantly by 32.7%, reaching 172.4 billion yuan [4] Fiscal and Financial Overview - Public budget revenue was 452.5 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase, while tax revenue decreased by 1.3% [4] - Financial institutions reported a 4.9% increase in deposits and a 10.6% increase in loans by the end of April [4] Foreign Trade - Jinan's total import and export value reached 793.4 billion yuan, a 22.4% increase, with exports growing by 10.4% and imports by 49.6% [5] - General trade accounted for 92.3% of the total trade volume, growing by 23.3% [5] Price Trends - Consumer prices rose by 0.5% cumulatively, with a 0.6% increase in April, showing a mixed trend across eight categories of goods and services [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].

每经编辑｜杜宇 据央视新闻，日本财务省5月27日公布了截至2024年底的对外资产及负债余额。从政府、企业及个人在海外所持资产中扣除海外投资者对日投资，日本对外 净资产余额为533.05万亿日元，比上年末增长12.9%，连续六年创历史新高。 但是日本时隔34年从"全球最大对外净资产国"退居第二，被德国超越。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布的汇率换算，德国在2024年底的对外净资产为 569.65亿日元。 日本街景 （图片来源：每经特约记者 郝帅 摄） 另据总台环球资讯广播，当地时间5月16日，日本内阁府发布的初步统计结果显示，经季节调整后，日本2025年一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降 0.2%，按年率计算下降0.7%。 个人消费在日本经济中占比超过一半，但一季度环比增幅接近于零，物价上涨是主要原因。自去年底起，日本国内大米和蔬菜价格持续上涨，影响了日本居 民的消费能力和意愿，还导致肉类、鱼类等食品消费出现负增长。 其二，日本出口表现不佳。 货物和服务出口环比下降了0.6%，进口环比增加了2.9%。出口下降主要受知识产权使用费减少，以及去年第四季度大型研发服务订单结束等因素影响。同 时，美国关税政策的 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Design and Implementation - Central banks utilize policy interest rates to influence market funding costs through adjustments to benchmark rates [2] - The interest rate corridor mechanism sets deposit facility rates (lower bound) and lending facility rates (upper bound) to guide market interest rates within a range [3] - Quantitative easing involves purchasing government bonds or mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity, with the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanding to $9 trillion in 2020 [4] - In response to high inflation, the Federal Reserve initiated a balance sheet reduction plan in June 2022, selling assets at a rate of $95 billion per month [5] Group 2: Price Stability and Inflation Management - Many central banks adopt a symmetric inflation target of 2%, allowing for short-term fluctuations but requiring medium-term anchoring [6] - The Reserve Bank of India has set an inflation tolerance band of 4%±2% to accommodate the high volatility characteristic of emerging markets [7] - The Bank of Japan introduced a 2% inflation target in 2013, permitting "ultra-loose monetary policy to continue until stability is achieved" [8] - Core CPI is monitored to exclude food and energy prices, reducing short-term volatility interference [9] - In 2023, service sector inflation in the Eurozone reached 5.6%, prompting the European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates [9] Group 3: Extended Functions Beyond Price Stability - Central banks act as financial stability maintainers, with the Bank of England requiring banks to increase capital reserves during economic overheating through countercyclical capital buffers [12] - The Federal Reserve conducts annual stress tests on large banks, with 2023 tests indicating that 23 banks could withstand a 10% unemployment rate shock [12] - The Federal Reserve processes an average of $3 trillion in payments daily through real-time gross settlement systems, ensuring zero-delay settlement for large transactions [13] - In 2023, the transaction volume of China's digital yuan pilot expanded to 1.8 trillion yuan across 26 cities [14] Group 4: Challenges in Policy Transmission - The zero lower bound constraint limits traditional tools when policy interest rates approach zero, necessitating reliance on unconventional tools [16] - The energy crisis in 2022 led to imported inflation in the Eurozone reaching 10.6%, surpassing local economic overheating levels [17] - The rise of digital currencies like Bitcoin undermines the efficiency of monetary policy transmission, prompting central banks to accelerate the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) [18] - New Zealand's central bank became the first to incorporate climate risk into financial stability assessments, requiring banks to disclose the carbon intensity of their loan portfolios [18] Group 5: Historical Policy Missteps - The Federal Reserve's misjudgment of inflation as a temporary phenomenon in the 1970s led to a CPI peak of 13.5% in 1980 due to delayed interest rate hikes [19] - The Swiss National Bank's sudden cancellation of the euro/franc 1.20 floor in 2015 caused a 41% spike in the exchange rate, resulting in over $1 billion in forex market losses [19] - The Bank of England's rapid interest rate hikes in 2022 triggered a liquidity crisis in pension funds, forcing a temporary resumption of quantitative easing [19] Conclusion - The role of modern central banks has evolved from being mere "inflation fighters" to becoming "omni-stabilizers" of the economic system, facing challenges from the rise of digital currencies, geopolitical instability, and accelerated climate transitions [UNFX]