Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [1] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 4.9% [1] - The current interest rate is 4.25%-4.50%, with a 92.8% probability of being maintained in July, decreasing to 29.7% in September and 11.3% in October [4] Group 2 - The expected interest rate ranges for the upcoming meetings are as follows: 3.75%-4.00% has a 42.4% probability in October, while 4.00%-4.25% has a 43.3% probability [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% decreases significantly in the upcoming months, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [4]

Group 1 - The core of the tariff policy under the Trump administration is an attempt to achieve economic goals through increased tariffs, but the consequences are more complex than anticipated [1] - Analysts on Wall Street identify the tariff policy as the biggest obstacle to the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, creating uncertainty for businesses and consumers [3] - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have significantly impacted global trade dynamics, with various countries facing different tariff rates, such as 25% on Japan and South Korea, and up to 200% on key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [5] Group 2 - Despite the strong tariff measures, consumer inflation expectations have surprisingly decreased to 3.02%, the same level as before the tariff war began, although this optimism may be unfounded [6] - The progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations contrasts with the difficult negotiations with other countries, largely due to China's control over critical rare earth resources, which gives it leverage in discussions [8] - The overall effects of the tariff policies remain unpredictable, with potential inflation risks still present despite a temporary decline in consumer expectations [8]

美联储的翻新工程目前耗资高达25亿美元，比最初的成本高出约7亿美元。这些工程包括露 台屋顶花园、水景、VIP电梯和优质大理石。每平方英尺的成本为1923美元，是翻修一座历 史性普通联邦政府建筑成本的两倍。以今天的美元价值计算，凡尔赛宫的翻修成本为30亿美 元。 沃特讲话稍早，本周四美国总统特朗普再度催促鲍威尔降息。两天前，特朗普还拿美联储翻修问题说 事。他在白宫主持内阁会议时称，如果鲍威尔确实如批评者所指那样，在有关美联储总部翻修项目的问 题上误导了国会，那么他应立即辞职。 特朗普周二还再次批评鲍威尔，称其"糟糕透顶"，并表示，欺骗国会将是他迅速下台的正当理由。"那 他就应该立刻辞职。我们应该找一个愿意降息的人来接替他。" 上周，特朗普任命的 美国联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长Bill Pulte呼吁国会调查鲍威尔，因为他在参议 院关于美联储总部翻修计划的证词具有"欺骗性"。他说： 特朗普政府再度借美联储总部翻修的争议项目"攻击"美联储主席鲍威尔。 美东时间7月10日周四，白宫管理和预算办公室主任拉塞尔·沃特公布了他写给鲍威尔的一封信，信中 称，鲍威尔"严重管理不善"，暗示他在美联储总部耗巨资的"浮夸"翻修工 ...

金十数据7月11日讯，特朗普政府的一名重要官员表示，美联储主席鲍威尔对该机构的管理严重不当， 并要求提供更多有关美联储华盛顿总部翻新的信息。"总统在你对联邦储备系统的管理深感不安，"美国 管理和预算局主任Vought在给鲍威尔的一封信中写道，"你没有尝试纠正美联储的财政状况，而是大张 旗鼓地翻新华盛顿总部。"这封信延续了特朗普、高级政府官员和一些国会共和党人的语调，对鲍威尔 施加更大的审查力度，目前美联储正面临要求其降息的广泛压力。 白宫官员施压美联储主席鲍威尔 指责其管理严重不当 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with San Francisco Fed President Daly suggesting that tariffs may not have a lasting effect on inflation [1][2] - Daly believes that some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which may prevent significant price increases for consumers [2] - The U.S. economy is in good shape, with growth and consumer spending slowing but not weakening, and inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Musalem emphasized the need for caution regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, stating that the impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest [2][3] - Musalem noted that while the impact of tariffs on inflation has not been significant so far, it is expected to become more apparent in the coming months [2] - There is a growing internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a potential cut in July while others remain cautious [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current Federal Reserve is suggested to lack independence according to the White House National Economic Council Director Hassett [1] Group 1 - The statement from Hassett indicates a potential shift in the perception of the Federal Reserve's autonomy in its decision-making processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new Federal Reserve Chairman can closely monitor the scale of the institution [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Policy - The National Economic Council Director Hassett emphasizes the importance of the new Fed Chair's focus on the institution's size [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，美联储理事沃勒在当地时间周四表示，即便6月就业数据表现强劲，美联储仍应考 虑在7月议息会议上降息。他在达拉斯联储演讲后的问答环节中强调："我已阐明观点——现行政策利率 水平过高，我们可以在7月讨论下调基准利率。"他认为通胀已明显降温、就业市场趋稳，且近期关税引 发的价格上涨仅局限于特定商品。他表示，"当通胀下行时，我们无需维持如此紧缩的政策立场，这才 是央行应有的决策逻辑。"沃勒此番表态的特别之处不仅在于时机——最新就业数据刚显示劳动力市场 持续强劲——更因其被视为下任美联储主席的热门人选。美国总统特朗普多次批评鲍威尔并敦促其提前 卸任，而沃勒因鸽派立场被视为潜在继任者。但沃勒周四明确表示："虽然我属于少数派，但已用经济 逻辑清晰论证了降息可行性。这与政治无关。" 美联储主席潜在候选人沃勒力挺7月降息：这无关政治 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

美联储戴利：等待通胀上升可能会导致美联储在降息方面落后。 ...

美联储戴利：我认为美联储可能会采取两次降息的措施。 ...